This is interesting. It is from the crew at Bespoke.
I guess China has quite a few more points to add on before imploding
and at the rate it is going it should be there next week (humor
I was in transit when the GDP number printed. When I
saw such a big number versus what was expected it seemed that something
was not right. Barry called shenanigans.
on the whole thing, this is a must read. When a number is very far from
what's expected something will be strange. Maybe you can't figure out
what but others will.
By now you know the Fed cut by 25 beeps,
tried to talk tough in the statement and after hiccuping, the market
whizzed higher. This is an interesting market these days. There are
countless signs of weakness.
The Fed obviously doesn't cut rates because things are ducky.
oil at $95 probably isn't helping too many people (save for the oil
companies and the people who own the shares) but even in the oil patch
there is strangeness with gasoline not keeping up with crude, this is
something you should have read about by now.
The dollar is at
some shocking levels against GBP (close to 2.08), AUD (above 0.93), EUR
(flirting with 1.45) and the loonie which is below 0.95.
Earnings growth is slowing way down, again not a sign of strength.
these issues plus a few others the market does has not care about any
of them, so far. Maybe that will change in the future or is changing
This reiterates that the market can go big in either
direction regardless of what the fundies would seem to dictate. I am
plenty long (not 100% as I have mentioned many times) and plenty
confounded. There are plenty of people out there to make the bull case
and I am not sure if they are actually right or right for the wrong
reason but for now they appear right. I don't really care, I just need
to focus on staying somewhat close, which is what you need to do also.
I am not sure how many times I have said this but it is true; there is
no harm in lagging a monster rally but
missing one is bad news.