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OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE:OB)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call

November 5, 2007 10:00 am ET

Executives

Fred Turcotte - VP of IR

Mike Miller - President and CEO

Paul McDonough - CFO

Kevin Rehnberg - SVP, Specialty Lines

Drew Carnase - SVP, Commercial Lines

Alex Archimedes - SVP, Personal Lines

Rich Bradford - SVP and Chief Actuary

Analysts

Bob Glasspiegel - Langen McAlenney

Rohan Pai - Bank of America Securities

Jay Gelb - Lehman Brothers

Ross Haberman - Haberman Fund

Operator

Good day and welcome to the OneBeacon Insurance Group'sThird Quarter 2007 Financial Results Webcast. This call is being recorded at 10a.m. Eastern Time, Monday, November 5th. All participants are in a listen-onlymode. At the conclusion of the prepared remarks, we will be conducting aquestion-and-answer session.

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turnthe call over to Fred Turcotte, OneBeacon's Vice President of InvestorRelations. Please go ahead, sir.

Fred Turcotte

Thank you and good morning, everyone. On behalf ofOneBeacon's management team, I want to welcome you and thank you for joining usthis morning as we review our third quarter 2007 financial results.

Today's call is being hosted by Mike Miller, our ChiefExecutive Officer; and Paul McDonough, our Chief Financial Officer. They willbe joined during the Q&A by Kevin Rehnberg, Senior Vice President ofSpecialty Lines; Drew Carnase, Senior Vice President of Commercial Lines; and AlexArchimedes, Senior Vice President of Personal Lines, as well as other membersof senior management.

Our third quarter and nine months 2007 results were releasedearlier this morning. A copy of our press release is available on the InvestorRelations section of our website, www.onebeacon.com, along with today's slidepresentation and a copy of our financial supplement. An audio replay of today'swebcast will be available on our site following this call.

Turning to slide 2, let me remind you that any statements wemake on today's call that are not historical facts constitute forward-lookingstatements. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses madeby OneBeacon in light of our experience and perception of historical trends,current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors.However, actual results may differ materially from expectations.

Please refer to the summary of risk factors at the end ofour earnings release, as well as a detailed list of risk factors contained inour annual report filed on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31,2006, filed on February 28, 2007. In addition, any forward-looking statementsrepresent our views only as of today and should not be relied upon asrepresenting our views as of any subsequent date.

Turning to slide 3, during this call we will refer tonon-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are not preparedin accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliationof the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAPmeasures accompanies the press release financial statements and is provided inthe financial supplement posted on our website.

Now let me turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Miller

Thank you, Fred. Good morning, everyone.

Let's turn to slide 4 to review our financial highlights forboth the third quarter and the first nine months of 2007. First, let me saythat I'm very pleased with our results across the board. We had an excellentquarter by any measure in today's market.

Our September 30 adjusted book value per share was $18.85,which represents a 4.6% increase for the third quarter and 13.3% through ninemonths, including dividends. This brings us to the one-year anniversary of ourinitial public offering, and in that first year we've produced a 20.4% growthin book value, exceeding our long-term book value growth objective of 15% to16% a year. Not a bad start.

Our GAAP combined ratio was 83.8% in the third quarter and92.7% through the first nine months of 2007, reflecting good results from allof our ongoing operations and the favorable impact of certain nonrecurringitems.

Our total return on investments was 1.5% for the thirdquarter and 5.9% through nine months, representing solid returns as compared tothe major indices for the year-to-date period. Remember these returns are not annualized.

Let's move on to slide 5 for a closer look at ourunderwriting results. On a current year accident basis, the third quarternon-CAT loss ratio was a solid 57.2%, and 60.6% through nine months. We saw nosignificant changes in either frequency or severity. Frequency remains flat,with mid-single-digit increases in severity. Our results were also helped by quietCAT quarter.

We continue to see favorable non-CAT prior accident yeardevelopment, which represented three points on the combined ratio through September.The combined ratio for the quarter was positively impacted by a partialsettlement of our pension liabilities and a state premium tax refund.

Excluding non-recurring items, we reported a very healthycombined ratio of 91% in the quarter and 94% year-to-date. After adjusting fornon-recurring items our expense ratio run rate remains about 35%.

Recently, we took significant actions to mange our expensesby reducing our workforce by approximately 10%. These actions will lower ourexpense ratio going forward allowing us to attract and retain good accounts.

We have noted our intent to improve of our expense ratioduring the past year and these actions are sizable steps in these efforts.While we understand the need to be more competitive as we have discussedpreviously, we've also continued to invest in specialized opportunities. Managingour expense ratio as a component of our business is not our entire focus.

Now let's move on to slide 6, overall third quarter premiumsdeclined by 1% and by 2% for nine months, an acceptable result relative toprevailing marketing conditions. As you can see our Specialty Lines businesscontinues to achieve double-digit growth rates. Specialty premiums were up 13%for the third quarter and an excellent 21% through September. Commercial Linesgrew by 4% in the third quarter and 2% through nine months, reflecting a mid30s growth rate for small commercial and a low single-digit decline for middlemarket.

Our personalized business includes both traditional andassigned risk accounts, written through our AutoOne business. Overall premiumscontinue to decline, although significantly driven by the diminishing New York and New Jersey assigned risk force. Traditional personalizedwere down slightly, reflecting Massachusettsstate mandated rate reductions in an increasingly competitive environment.

Now let's look at slide 7, and follow the information on ourprimary segments. Our Specialty Lines businesses continue to performexceptionally well. While, we saw a favorable development in our prior yearreserves again this quarter, we've have not reduced our current accident yearloss ratios.

Overtime, we believe the under lying accident year resultswill prove to be exceptional. Specialty Lines combined ratio benefited fromthree points favorable impact, from nonrecurring items in the quarter andapproximately one point year-to-date. Our bottom line 88 combined ratio fornine months reflects the continued strong performance by these businesses.

Turning to slide 8, OneBeacon Professional Partners pricingdeclined by low double-digits, paralleling favorable market trends for theProfessional Liability business. However these trend remains within our ratetolerance range. Pricing pressures have been more significant for largeraccounts, which represent a smaller portion of our book of business.

OBPP's overall production was strong for both new andrenewal business reflecting solid activity from all areas particularly long-termcare, hospital professional liability and lawyers professional liability.

Our lower premium retention reflects market conditionsespecially on larger accounts as our policy retention rate actually increasedyear-over-year. We continue to augment our professional liability capabilitieshaving introduced an admitted managed care in old product as well as a new MGArelationship for Podiatrist Liability business in the third quarter.

We continue to believe there arestill adequately priced new business opportunities available. IMU our Marinebusiness continues to see modest price increases because our book is comprisedof small to mid-size accounts.

Retention levels fell during the quarter reflectingcontinued competition for a larger hull, cargo and inland marine accounts. Wecontinue to believe there are many new business opportunities in the Marineenvironment.

Our other specialty category includes our emerging accidentand health and government risk solutions groups and our tuition reimbursementbusiness written through the Dewar operation.

Moving onto slide 9, let’s discuss our Commercial Linesresults. We are very pleased with our Commercial Lines results particularlyconsidering the competitiveness of the marketplace. In the quarter our currentaccident year non-CAT results were a strong 52%.

We also experienced three points of favorable prior yeardevelopment which contributed to an excellent combined ratio of 83%. Includedin the combined ratio are four points of favorable nonrecurring items in thethird quarter and approximately one point year-to-date.

Normalizing for these items our third quarter combined was astrong 88% and 90% through nine months.

Moving on to slide 10, middle market commercial pricingremains competitive, although we did not see [subsequent] deterioration duringthe third quarter. Our real prices were down a slight 1% for mid-size accountsand 7% on a pure rate basis, with the retention rates holding in the mid-80's.We’re pleased with the new business flow we're seeing from our newer middlemarket territories in the Mountain States and from our Inland Marine segment.

Our technology capabilities also continued to evolve,including recent coverage enhancements for our information technology product.Small business pricing has been less affected by the softer market conditions.Our renewal pricing has consistently averaged in the low single digits and wasup 3% for the quarter with pure rate down at minus 1.

Retention has trended in the upper 80s. New business grew by20% over the same period in the prior year, reflecting growth from all parts ofthe country. We also added several group programs in the third quarter andrecently announced our entry into Indiana,our 27th state for small business.

Turning now to slide 11, Personal Lines results were verygood this quarter with improvements in our current accident year non-CAT lossratio and favorable development on prior year reserves. Personal Lines thirdquarter combined ratio of 80% benefited from 9 points of favorable impact fromthe non-recurring items and 2% through nine months. We're so very pleased withthe 90% combined ratio for the quarter.

Turning to slide 12, renewal pricing for traditionalPersonal Lines remains positive, with increases of 2% and 9% for auto and homerespectively. Retention for auto continues to reflect the competitive market,while homeowner's retentions remained strong. We're pleased with the sustainedpositive trends in our policy in-force counts and with new business, which heldsteady with prior quarters, as we leverage our OneChoice product suite and ourhallmark package products.

During the third quarter, we began transitioning our legacybusiness to OneChoice, to streamline our operation through a common platform.This process will take a full year to accomplish and has been seamless to-date.

And with that, let me turn this over to Paul.

Paul McDonough

Thank you Mike, and good morning everyone. Turning toinvestment on Slide 13, the total return on the portfolio was 1.5% for thethird quarter and 6.1% year-to-date, again neither of these annualized.Investment income was essentially flat year-over-year, both in the quarter andthe year-to-date period, reflecting a decrease in yield on higher averageinvestment.

As footnote on the table on this slide and the investmentexhibits on the next three slides, exclude the investments held in trust toeconomically defease of the company's preferred stock.

Turning to Slide 14, our investment managers continue toperform exceptionally well on the fixed income side. The portfoliounderperformed the Lehman index in the quarter, but has outperformed the indexon a year-to-date basis. Contributing to the underperformance versus the indexfor the quarter, was a shorter duration of our portfolio in a declining interestrate environment and the underweighting of treasuries in our portfolio, in anenvironment characterized by [flight to] quality and particularly a [flight to]treasury.

We continue to benefit from solid risks and securityselection. In particular, our investment managers resisted the temptations toinvest in sub-prime mortgaged securities. So we have suffered no adverse affectfrom dislocations in that market.

On the equity side, summarized on Slide 15, the portfolioslightly underperforms relative to the S & P in the quarter which strongoutperformed year-to-date.

Our other investments, primarily hedge funds also producedexcellent returns on a year-to-date basis. Here also we continue to benefitfrom solid risk and security selection, and we have no significant exposure tothe decline in value of sub-prime mortgages and related investments.

The asset allocation of the portfolio as illustrated onslide 16 continues to reflect our total return strategy, with 22% of theportfolio in common equity and other investments as of September 30.

Turning now to capital structure on slide 17, the debt tototal capital ratio adjusted to the economic defeasance of our preferred stockis 28.4% at September 30, reflecting continued modest deleveraging.

As a reminder, the remaining 300 million of Berkshirepreferred stock is mandatorially redeemable in May of next year, and asplanned, and previously disclosed the assets set aside in the Berkshireirrevocable trust will be used to execute that redemption and will also be usedto continue to fund the dividends on the preferred stock until the redemptiondate.

Finally, in the third quarter we announced a $200 millionshare repurchase program. Through the end of last week, we had repurchasedapproximately 608,000 shares for roughly $13 million. And with that I'll turnit back to Mike.

Mike Miller

Thank you, Paul. Let me take a few minutes to recap ourdiscussion. For the quarter we've reported excellent results driven by verygood accident year loss ratios, positive impact from prior year improvements,solid growth in the right places in our on-running units, acceptable pricinglevels in each of our segments, a relatively quiet CAT quarter, continuedevidence of prudent risk selection and a benefit from some well managednonrecurring expense items.

And finally, we took difficult but necessary actions toreduce our expenses going forward. While market conditions are morecompetitive, our business continues to perform well and we are buildingshareholder book value. OneBeacon will continue to seek specializedcapabilities in terms of new products, businesses and teams of people to expandour franchise operations.

I look forward to reporting our yearend results in a fewmonths. And with that, we’ll be happy to open the line and take your questions.

Question-and-AnswerSession

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. (Operator Instruction) Yourfirst question will come from the line of Bob Glasspiegel of Langen McAlenney.Please proceed.

Bob Glasspiegel -Langen McAlenney

Good morning. I was wondering, if you could just talk alittle more about personal lines, and specifically the payable development thatyou saw, maybe you could expand on where you saw the progressives had severalmonths of average development Allstate’s reserve developments sort of end ofthis quarter and your cousin insurance had to speed bump and had some adversedevelopment, maybe, you could expand on what you are seeing relative to whatothers may be seeing?

Rich Bradford

Yeah, this is Bradford, Chief Actuary of OneBeacon. I thinkthe amount that we saw this quarter was a little unusual. We are not generallysurprised when we see one or two points of favorable development, but I thinkwith personal lines they were around 6 points this quarter was unusual due tothe size, as for the future expectation, I don't really have an expectationgoing forward. They would either be adverse or favorable, but we were somewhatsurprised at the amount this quarter, but it was driven by favorable casedevelopment on not only accident year '06, but also going back to year '03, '04and '05, all of those in all segments of favorable case development thisquarter.

Bob Glasspiegel -Langen McAlenney

New York Fifth has not been an issue for you guys?

Rich Bradford

It's certainly an issue, but we have tended to find that inretrospect we were, a little conservative than our loss fixed there. So that'scontributing to the favorable development.

Bob Glasspiegel -Langen McAlenney

Well, okay. Thank you.

Rich Bradford

Thanks, Bob.

Operator

And your next question will come from line of Rohan Pai ofBank of America Securities.

Rohan Pai - Bank of AmericaSecurities

Hey, good morning. Just following up on the personal linesquestion, just looking sequentially it appears like your accident, your lastspecs seem to be declining, at least relative to the first and second quarters.If you can just, maybe, give us some color on what you are seeing there,whether it's reflecting the improved trends that you have seen so far?

Fred Turcotte

Yes, Rohan. Sure describe full again. What's really drivingthe improved result in the third quarter is an absence of unusual amount oflarge losses which we what we wereseeing, in quarter one and quarter two linked in the large loss return to amore normal level in the third quarter, but, that drives an improvement levelinto the first two quarters.

We are still seeing similar trends in the underlying losses,flat on the frequency, and mid single-digits on severity, but, really was theabsence of large losses driving the change in the loss ratio this quarter.

Rohan Pai - Bank of America Securities

So you would say that 3Q is more normalized than the priortwo, or should we expect some large losses?

Fred Turcotte

Yes, that's correct. And also recall as well as we'vediscussed previously with the North Eastern concentration of the Personal Linesbook, in the first quarter, we expect more impact from weather conditions. Soyou look sequentially quarter-over-quarter through the year that they would beexpected to trend favorably.

Rohan Pai - Bank of AmericaSecurities

Thanks for the clarification. The second question I had wason small commercial, you had strong growth in the quarter? How much of it wasfrom new states that you’ve expanded into and how much from, maybe increasedpenetration of existing agencies?

Fred Turcotte

We’ll ask Mike Miller who runs our small business operation.Mike?

Mike Miller

Sure. The growth in the quarter is actually coming splitpretty well between some of our newer states and existing states. We've lookedat our best performing states on the growth side and look at our top ten andactually half of them are coming from states we've entered in the last coupleof years, but its’ actually the other half or five states really getting growthby some of our traditional markets. So, we feel pretty good about the growthoverall coming from our end.

Rohan Pai - Bank of AmericaSecurities

Great. Thanks for the answers and a great quarter.

Mike Miller.

Thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)

Year next question will come from the line of Jay Gelb ofLehman Brothers.

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

Thank you, and good morning

Mike Miller

Good morning, Jay.

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

First, I just want to touch base on the top line growth, canyou give us a sense as to whether the AutoOne comparisons, have started tobottom here at around $30 million a quarter?

Mike Miller

Well, Jay, I would say we're clearly nearing the bottom, wesaid, of our expectation and, again if you look at the decline over the lastcouple of years, you'll see the direction. And I would say we estimate thatwe're somewhere near the bottom.

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

Okay. So that should bode pretty well for a resumption oftopline growth overall going forward?

Mike Miller

On AutoOne or overall?

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

Overall, since the rest of the business is growing prettywell outside of Personal Lines.

Mike Miller

Yeah. If you look at the third quarter reported results,obviously, as we've talked about, Specialty Lines is up nicely and CommercialLines overall is up slightly. So Personal Lines clearly is the most significantpremium challenge right now.

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

Okay. And then, separately, the expense ratio improvementgoal of three points by 2009, with the actions you took in terms of reducingheadcount in the third quarter, how much closer did that get you to that goal?

Mike Miller

Sure. I'll ask Paul to answer that, Jay.

Paul McDonough

Jay, I guess I'd say a couple of things. One, I think sortof underlying your question is what are the dollar benefits associated with areduction in force and what is the likely impact on the expense ratio? Andwhile the reduction in force certainly moves us in the right direction and,hopefully, provides clear evidence that we take that goal very seriously, wehave chosen not to identify exactly what the dollar savings are associated withreduction in force.

And there are really two reasons for that. One is that therereally are simply too many moving parts that impact the expense ratio,including the investments that we have made over the last couple of years,including the last 12 months, and that we expect we will continue to make.

And the second thing is that, as you know, we prefer to stayaway from providing specific guidance relative to our expected future results,and instead prefer to allow our reported results to provide the basis for yourprojections overtime. I realize I'm not directly answering your question, buthopefully that provides context for why we don't want to provide a specificanswer and specific guidance.

Mike Miller

But Jay, this is Mike, I would just add to what Paul saidthat clearly it's a significant step.

Jay Gelb - LehmanBrothers

I see, okay. Then two separate ones. First on the sharebuyback program for the $200 million, can you provide some context around interms of whether you see the ability to increase that amount overtime, and thenhow quickly, perhaps, you expect to complete the buyback?

And then, separately, if you can just give us a sense if weshould expect anymore one-timers to flow through the operating earnings numbersin terms of as much visibilities you have, that'd be helpful? Thank you.

Paul McDonough

With respect to the buyback, Jay, we've been in the marketpretty consistently since we announced the share repurchase program back inlate August. And we've made steady progress in the context of the safe harborrules which given the average trading volume in our stock, our ability to makeprogress beyond sort of the progress we've made at the rate that we've made it,somewhat limited, obviously the wild card there is whether there is a sellerinside. And that hasn't been the case.

Mike Miller

Relative to the onetime items, Jay, going forward, obviouslythose things occur periodically, are not necessarily planned for. These itemswe called out this quarter because they were significant and nonrecurring.

Paul McDonough

Jay, the one thing I would add with respect to on unusual ornonrecurring items is with regard to the reduction in force, we did incur acharge related to the actions that were taken in September in our third quarterresults in the amount of roughly $5 million. The September action related primarilyto our Personal Lines business. We took a separate action in October that wasmore broadly based across the company, and we expect to take an additionalcharge in the fourth quarter in the amount of, again, roughly of $5 million.

Jay Gelb - Lehman Brothers

Thanks very much.

Operator

And your next question is from the line of Ross Haberman ofHaberman Fund.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

Good morning, gentlemen. How are you?

Mike Miller

Good morning.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

Could you just touch upon which categories you're seeing theweakest pricing at the moment and your expectations?

Mike Miller

I am sorry. The latter part of your question faded out.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

Sorry. The weakest sector you're seeing pricing in today andyour expectation there?

Mike Miller

Yeah. I would say the most significant sector affected bypricing competition is probably in the larger account area, and that would goacross almost all of the segments. A larger account seems to attract the mostsignificant levels of competition. And as we've talked about in the majority ofour business across all of our segments, that represents a smaller portion ofour overall in-force.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

And you expect that to proceed?

Mike Miller

I would expect that, yes.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

And just finally, what other new lines are you looking intowith respect to be in, I guess, over the next couple of quarters which you'renot in today?

Mike Miller

Again, we're continually, as we've talked about in the past,looking at new segments and new niches that might be attractive to us. We,obviously if we told you today we would be announcing which ones we are in.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

Okay.

Mike Miller

And we are not in a position to do that, but we willcontinue to look for new segments that we think offers the opportunity to addvalue and as you've seen in the last couple of years something we're constantlyworking on.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

No, I know you've historically said, you're activelylooking, you're trying to bring in new people with their expertise to get intonew sectors. I don't know if you've brought in any in the last quarter or twoand we will begin to see the fruits of all their new works you might say.

Mike Miller

We've started in the last couple of quarters, a couple ofnew, if you go back to the end of last year actually, couple of new segments inSpecialty. Kevin you want to mention a couple of those?

Kevin Rehnberg

Sure, we hired a team in November the year-ago to set usinto the Accident & Health business. That business has been producing inthe later part of this year. Then in February we brought on a team to do thepublic entity business, which we call government risk solutions and they'vebeen quite active in, actually they have written some business as well.

We also in November of last year acquired a MGA businessfocused on yachts, which has really helped to drive some of the growth in ourmarine business this year and as well in January of this year; we set up an MGAarrangement to get some geographic expansion of our marine business. We triedat marine managers and that has contributed this year to the growth as well.

Mike Miller

Andrew, maybe just to mention of our new team in technologyas well as the new territories that we concentrated on?

Andrew Carnase

Yeah, few of the investments we made in middle market overthe last couple of years and some more recent, our information technology hasbeen continually growing over the last two years. They slowed down a littlebit, there is a little more competition. But they are in a pace of 10% to 15%growth than in previous years, they were in the vicinity of 20%.

The same thing is true of our in the marine team, whichcontinued to add more assets too, they continually grow at 20% to 25%. As partof the technology group and may be to answer your question a little moredirectly. We are broadening our appetite in technology from informationtechnology it was really hardware and software, to medical technology which isgoing to be primarily medical device and a little bio business. So, we areexpecting that business to come online in the first quarter of 2008.

In terms of geographic extension, I think we mentioned inthe last earnings call. That we put a team in to the upper Midwest and in themountain states specifically Denverand they have been contributing nicely to the middle market growth as well.

Ross Haberman -Haberman Fund

Okay guys, thank you very much.

Mike Miller

You are welcome.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)

And there are no further questions at this time. I wouldlike to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Miller for closing comments.

Mike Miller

Thank you, operator and again thank you everyone for joiningus and we will look forward to talking you at year end results. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentleman thank you for your participation intoday's conference. This concludes the presentation you may now disconnect havea wonderful day.

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