Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) has historically been a bullish trade for longs off its post-earnings after-hours movement. Longs then should be keen to watch the company's Q3 report tonight.
The stock has recorded an earnings-driven off-hours gain in 13 of the last 31 quarters tracked in our database. In nine of those quarters, or 69% of the time, the stock has seen those after-hours gains expand further in the green in the following day's regular session.
Shorts aren't pushed out of the trade tonight, but their prospects have certainly been more limited over time. SYNA has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 18 of the 31 quarters we've tracked. It has seen its evening downside head deeper in the red by the following day's close in eight quarters, or 44%. Longs may still have a better play here.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect SYNA to report a Q3 profit of $0.52 per share on revenue of $132 million.
The historical performance data follows:
- On Jan. 26, 2012, SYNA declined 1.3% in after-hours trade after beating on Q2 but also issuing a Q3 revenue view below expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Jan. 27 regular session up 7.7%.
- On Oct. 20, 2011, the stock rose 8.4% after an earnings beat. Shares jumped 19.4% the next day.
- On July 28, 2011, SYNA shed 5% in night trade despite topping Q4 expectations. The stock cut its downside significantly the next day, ending the July 29 regular session off 0.7%.
- On April 21, 2011, SYNA dropped 3.3% in after-hours action after beating Q3 estimates and setting Q4 guidance below the Street view. It reversed direction the following day, closing the April 22 regular session up 0.04%.
- On Jan. 20, 2011, SYNA declined 3.2% in after-hours trade despite reporting mostly better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock was hit for sharper declines the next day, closing the Jan. 21 regular session off 10.9%.
- On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock rose 0.8% after in-line earnings and a revenue beat. Shares were up 1% during the following day's regular session.
- On July 29, 2010, SYNA edged up 0.9% in evening action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It lost that gain the next day, closing the July 30 regular session down 0.4%.
- On April 22, 2010, SYNA gained 7.2% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and approving an additional $100 million stock buyback program. The stock continued heading higher the next day, closing the April 23 regular session up 9.3%.
- On Jan. 21, 2010, the stock fell 11.8% in extended-hours trading after a Q2 beat with mixed guidance. Shares nearly matched that move the next day, with shares down 11.9%.
- On Oct. 22, 2010, the stock gained 10.9% in evening trading after a Q1 beat. Shares rose a narrower 3.9% the next day.
- On July 30, 2009, the stock fell 19.4% after a Q4 beat but guidance for a revenue miss. Shares plunged 33.1% during the following day's regular session.
- On April 23, 2009, SYNA gained 0.9% in after-hours action after topping Q3 estimates and setting guidance above the Street. The stock eked out a slightly higher gain in the April 24 regular session, ending up 1.7%.
- On Jan. 22, 2009, SYNA charged 11.2% higher in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock lost a good portion of its gain the next day, closing the Jan. 23 regular session up a more modest 4.8%.
- On Oct. 23, 2008, SYNA gained 3.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations. It saw that gain reduced the following day, closing out the Oct. 24 regular session up a more modest 1.4%.
- On July 31, 2008, the stock slipped 0.5% despite a Q4 beat. The stock rebounded to post a modest 0.8% gain the next day.
- On April 24, 2008, the stock fell 5.4% after the company met with Q3 results. The loss was trimmed slightly the next day, to 4%.
- On Jan. 24, 2008, SYNA beat Q2 earnings estimates but issued guidance below expectations. The stock was hammered 24.2% lower in after-hours trade. It narrowed slightly in the following Jan. 25 regular session, ending down 23.4%.
- On Nov. 1, 2007, SYNA charged 10.6% higher in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates and setting its Q2 revenue outlook to match or beat the Street. Buyers flocked to the issue the next day, boosting it 19% by the closing bell.
- On Aug 9, 2007, SYNA slipped 1.2% in night trade despite beating Q4 estimates and guiding above Street views. Shares managed to cut those losses the next day but not completely erase them. Shares ended the day session down 0.5%.
- On April 26, 2007, the stock gained 2.1% after beating with Q3 and guiding higher. The gain was 4.5% the next day.
- On Jan. 25, 2007, the stock fell 2.1% in the evening hours despite beating Q2 estimates. The loss fattened to 11.5% the next day.
- On Oct. 19, 2006, the stock was up 10.4% in evening trading after results bested the Street view. The gain swelled to 16.5% the next day.
- On July 27, 2006, shares fell 5.2% in the evening hours despite a beat for Q4 and the full year. That loss was reined in to just 0.1% the next day.
- On April 20, 2006, SYNA declined 3.3% in after-hours trade after the company posted Q3 results that came in short of expectations. The stock pared back its downside in the April 21 regular session, ending the day with a more modest 1.1% slide.
- On Jan. 19, 2006, SYNA fell 9.1% after topping expectations but setting guidance in a range that could fall short of the Street's view. The loss fattened to 18% the next day.
- On October 20, 2005, SYNA dropped 7.5% in after-hours trade when Q1 sales fell short of expectations. It beat its earnings expectations, though. Shares trimmed losses the next day, ending the regular session down 6.6%.
- On July 28, SYNA plunged 22% after Q4 revenue missed Street forecasts and the company guided Q1 revenue below expectations. It lost even more ground in the July 29 regular session, plummeting 24.6%.
- On April 21, 2005, the stock plunged 9.8% despite reporting Q3 earnings that beat the Street view by 7 cents and just topping on revenue. SYNA was pummeled even harder in the April 22 regular session, closing down 14.2%.
- On Jan. 20, 2005, SYNA jumped 10.1% after Q2 results beat estimates. It more than doubled that gain in the Jan. 21 regular session, soaring 21.7%.
- On Oct. 21, 2004, SYNA leaped 9.8% after Q1 revenue barely topped targets and EPS beat the Street by 2 cents a share. It showed even more muscle in the Oct. 22 regular session, surging 11.5% by the bell.
- On the night of July 29, 2004, SYNA plummeted 11.6% after reporting Q4 results. It continued deeper into negative territory in the July 30 regular session, ending down a whopping 17.2%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.