Will ACA Capital Report A Complete Breach?

The market sure seems to think so. But like bedfellows (or shall we say other fellows like (ABK), and (MBI) that fell out of bed), just the fact that they are conducting a conference call suggests no funny stuff will be filed next week in the 10Q.

As such, with the stock (and overall market) likely to open much lower, and short covering to begin later in the day (pre conference call tomorrow), we think you are getting good odds on your money, should the stock trade circa $2.25 to $2.40 this morning. A daily chart over the last several months suggests the steep decline has been on relatively low volume since the mid teens. And while many will wish to get out of the CDO/ABS/sub-prime mess, there are distressed buyers waiting in the wings. Since absolutely no-one can put a real number on this unknown value, its back to behavioral psychology for financials. There has been a total capitulation here, and the move up could be massive.