Market Recap: The market turned in quite another strong day to really push a bullish agenda into GDP on Friday as the market reacted well to continued upside in earnings and decent news out of home sales. Overall, though, it was still a day of mixed headlines with the market charging higher. Pending home sales came in better than expected at 4.1% vs. 0.5% expectations. Additionally, good earnings from Safeway (SWY), Citrix (CTXS) and a slew of other smaller names helped the market charge higher. The dollar's drop against the euro and yen also helped.
Yet, it was another day where the headlines suggested weakness. Jobless claims remained high and came in above expectations. They dropped WoW by 1,000, but it was well above estimates. Additionally, earnings were not as strong from the bigger names like Exxon Mobil (XOM), UPS (UPS) and Potash (POT). The market seemed to shrug off this news and head higher as the bulls have retaken charge of the market. Here are two trades we like right now:
Right now, we are liking the looks of Vornado Realty (VNO) and Western Digital (WDC). The REIT market is looking excellent right now. Growth is abundant there, and a lot of the companies are making moves higher. VNO broke a key line at 85.10 today for a breakout, and we believe it should pop 86 tomorrow and head higher from there. Western Digital is a great earnings play. We believe that the company has a lot of value and upside. If the company has any report like Seagate (STX), this stock will be at $50 in no time. We would be selling puts against this one right now as it heads higher. Look for a solid move on earnings.
Position #1 - Long VNO
Position #2 - WDC, Jun18, 40/39 Bull Put Spread
The market's outlook for tomorrow is really based on the report out of GDP. We have positioned ourselves net long into the report, and we believe that the market is showing a lot of strength right now that cannot be ignored. At the same time, we continue to remain cautious. It was just on Monday that the market was faltering and dropping on its face. Now, it's forgotten. The issues of the market that took it down are still there, and we believe that we need to remain cautious with good hedges in place to avoid being completely wiped out on weak market days. Overall, the market is going to need a good GDP report to do well tomorrow once again. On the earnings front, we have key reports from Amazon.com (AMZN) tonight and Procter & Gamble (PG) tomorrow. For overseas, we have TONS of data coming out from China, Japan and Europe. The BOJ rate decision is out tomorrow. Japan housing starts and Chinese industrial data are out as well. The German consumer confidence report is also due out. A big day for the market, so we will have a lot to trade off of tomorrow.
The interesting moves for analysts was a downgrade of Dana Holdings (DAN) from Goldman Sachs. A fairly solid report was not enough for GS to retain a Buy, and they downgraded DAN to Hold. Transports continue to look weak, and we would love to use a lot of them as hedges against longs. Additionally, Apple (AAPL) got a nice PT upgrade from Hilliard Lyons to $740. We had a $750 price target before earnings, and we are seeing north of $780 now.
Talked extensively about shorting oil yesterday, and despite its continued strength, we still believe shorting it is the way to go. Oil has a weakening dollar supporting it. Against it is a resolving Iran crisis, tons of oversupply, lack of demand, economy that can be broken by overpriced oil, and the president. We would not want to be long oil with a lot of things fundamentally pointing for lower oil prices.
We had a nice day today as we took some solid gains off the table. We got a 21% gain on a Coinstar (CSTR) earnings play we opened up with 57.50/55 bull put spread before the pre-announcement of earnings. We were able to get a 1% gain on Thomson Reuters (TRI) long for half the position. We got a solid 0.60% gain on a Ventas (VTR), Biogen (BIIB) pair trade. We took a 2.5% loss on long SCO position. We added longs in F5 Networks (FFIV) and Vornado to Equity Portfolio. We added long earnings play in WDC.
We have the following positions. In our Short-Term Equity Portfolio we are long FFIV, VNO, TRI, Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) and Ventas. We are short Biogen Idec. In our Options Portfolio, we are long AAPL, Dollar General (DG), Monster Beverage (MNST), Visa (V), Polaris Industries (PII). We are short United States Oil (USO). We have a reverse iron condor in Direxion Financial 3x (FAS). In our Earnings Portfolio, we are long WDC, Ace Limited (ACE), Ashland (ASH), Coinstar. We are short Amazon.com. We have a reverse iron condor in LVS.
Chart courtesy of finviz.com.
Disclosure: I am long MNST.