Betting Against the U.S. Dollar

On Thursday, Ben Bernanke told members of Congress "...I do believe that will lead to a sound dollar in the medium term." Well, what about in the short term Ben?

The US dollar has been on a steady decline for the last two years, and a lot of people seem to think this trend will continue. For example, there are rumors that China might diversify its holdings away from the US Dollar, more rate cuts by the Fed will further weaken the dollar, and even supermodel Gisele Bundchen, the world's top-earning supermodel, wants to be paid in any currency other than the US dollar. So what does this mean for you as an investor? I've highlighted a few interesting methods for you to benefit from the weakening US dollar.

Invest in international stocks. Over the last 12 months, the Euro has appreciated 12% against the US dollar. This means a US investor could have added 12% to his returns on any Euro denominated stocks. That's the equivalent of getting a 12% raise at work!

Invest in gold. Gold is one of the classic protections against inflation. For example, check out Thomas Tan's portfolio. He's been screaming about the opportunities in gold for the last few months, he had the gumption to put his money where his mouth was, and now he has the returns to back it all up.

Invest in foreign certificates of deposit. I know the idea of investing in a CD sounds boring at first, but when you consider the depreciating US dollar, foreign CD rates actually become quite attractive. For example, the US dollar has depreciated about 11% versus the British Pound over the last 12 months. Had you invested in a 3% British CD twelve months ago, you would have earned about a 14% return. That's not bad for a risk free rate!

I've constructed my own portfolio to have significant exposure to international equity markets, and I'll be looking for opportunities to add more. Even my alma mater's $6 billion endowment fund has about 24% in international equities.Taking advantage of international diversification and the weak US dollar is one of those great opportunities that many investors often over look. To borrow a quote from one of my favorite movies, "If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."

Comments

[EMvet]

Foreign currency CDs are not "risk-free." You bear currency risk. It may be a little late to enter that trade; now may the the time to start lightening up.

[EMvet]

Foreign currency CDs are not "risk-free." You bear currency risk. It may be a little late to enter that trade; now may the the time to start lightening up.

[mark.d.hines]

EMvet-
I agree you bear currency risk on the foreign CD (that's pretty much the point of the whole post). I suppose I did use the term "risk free" a little too loosely. As far as being a "little late," and now being the time to start "lightening up"... Well, USD/EUR futures contracts traded at the Chicago Merc are still predicting a decline is the USD over the coming months.

[mark.d.hines]

EMvet-
I agree you bear currency risk on the foreign CD (that's pretty much the point of the whole post). I suppose I did use the term "risk free" a little too loosely. As far as being a "little late," and now being the time to start "lightening up"... Well, USD/EUR futures contracts traded at the Chicago Merc are still predicting a decline is the USD over the coming months.

[mark.d.hines]

EMvet-
I agree you bear currency risk on the foreign CD (that's pretty much the point of the whole post). I suppose I did use the term "risk free" a little too loosely. As far as being a "little late," and now being the time to start "lightening up"... Well, USD/EUR futures contracts traded at the Chicago Merc are still predicting a decline is the USD over the coming months.

[Brian Croner]

Invest in skills and ability. Develop economic prowess independent of any currency. Brace for 2008.