A Look Back at Zune - From the Future 16 comments
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Microsoft (MSFT) launched its second generation Zune amid decent reviews, a good bit of press and even a few personalized devices. But the MP3 game is a marathon not a sprint.
So after perusing the news a few reviews from CNET, Engadget and Gizmodo I just had to find out how this Zune thing played out. I hopped in the time machine and found a bunch of artifacts from the future, circa 2010-2012.
Things got a little suspicious when I saw this press release from the Microsoft folks. Date: Nov. 12, 2010:
REDMOND, Wash. — Nov. 12, 2010 — Tomorrow consumers will get their hands on the smallest, sleekest Zune’s ever. The updated Zune software and online services will offer gaming, music subscriptions–as if anyone downloads anything any more–and the latest in surface and cerebral interfacing technology. More than 2 million Zune’s have been preordered on Zune.net.
“Tomorrow brings our fifth generation Zune and consumers are lining up outside the Zune stores to get their hands on the No. 1 MP3 player in the market,” said Microsoft CEO J Allard. “The personal is now more personal than ever as we anticipate your entertainment needs through our cerebral interfacing software.”
Boy after reading that statement I was taken back by a few things. First, the Zune actually got some momentum. And then there’s the CEO quote. What happened to Ballmer? And how the hell did Microsoft get a CEO who not only doesn’t have a first name, but is too cool to even use a period after the initial. Talk about Wow!
So I fished a little more. And found this Wharton case study on the MP3 wars. The date: Feb. 20, 2011. Here are a few choice excerpts:
In many respects, Microsoft’s Zune playbook followed other products throughout the company’s history. At first, the product is lacking and far from the market leader. The second generation shows improvement with the third gaining market acceptance. However, the Zune’s big breakthrough came courtesy of Apple (AAPL), which bet entirely on music and video downloads. The company’s reluctance to offer a subscription service turned consumers away from the iPod. Meanwhile, Department of Justice proceeding against the iPod/iTunes link hampered decision making at Apple.
Ok, so music subscriptions helped turn the tide. But how did Microsoft actually get this consumer thing down? Turns out that ditching brown as a Zune color was only the beginning. Luckily I found this passage in the case study.
After Google took away much of Microsoft’s Office cash cow, the software giant doubled down on its consumer businesses. The company was still large, but management became decentralized into small teams. In many respects, Microsoft became an incubator for new businesses. The Zune was one of the early efforts. Once this model took off for Microsoft it was clear that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer was no longer needed. He retired to lead a dance troop. Microsoft named J Allard CEO in January 2010. Allard became the first CEO in U.S. history without a first name.
Well that explains a lot. I always thought Ballmer’s calling was dance anyway. Nevertheless, I was still skeptical about the Zune becoming such a hit–until I found this press release from NPD. Date: April 20, 2012.
Port Washington, NY, April 20, 2012 – According to a new report from the NPD Group, a leading consumer and retail information company, sales of Microsoft’s Zune are outpacing Apple’s iPod by a 5 to 1 margin.
The latest sales data indicate that the Zune has a 40 percent market share and the iPod commands 30 percent. This is the first quarter where the Zune has led the iPod in market share.
I know. I know. This is fiction. Dignan has spent too much time at the pub (again). It is quite hard to believe. But I’ve seen the future and the Zune turns out a helluva lot better than you thought it would.
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Answer: One to stick his finger in the socket over and over until he doesn't care that the lightbulb will never be as bright as it once was.
They said it was useless and going to be a disaster for Apple.
I don't think I'd use them to back up any analysis in tech if I were you.
This is so sad as an article. The future is in handheld computers that do it ALL. Apple has it with iPhone, and other phone manufacturers will have it with Google next year. The END for Microsoft's pathetic 10 years of attempts in the market which have got them 6%.
And Zune? The plug was pulled in 2008. Didn't you hear?
reply: nobody gets it on the first try, your bias is clear.
>>reply: nobody gets it on the first try, your bias is clear.
Gee, I don't know, Marcel. It looks like the market has spoken. Approximately 1.4 million iPhones sold in the first three months. More than a million Zunes sold in the first, what, eight months?
The iPhone is Apple's first try at a cellphone. Zune is Microsoft's first try at an MP3 player.
That isn't bias, that's just facts.
>>reply: nobody gets it on the first try, your bias is clear.
Gee, I don't know, Marcel. It looks like the market has spoken. Approximately 1.4 million iPhones sold in the first three months. More than a million Zunes sold in the first, what, eight months?
The iPhone is Apple's first try at a cellphone. Zune is Microsoft's first try at an MP3 player.
That isn't bias, that's just facts.
reply: what about Apple's 25+ year attempt and less than 6% overall PC market share?
Apple has never been the number one player, and probably won't be. You see, 6% market share is their strength. Whereas with Microsoft, the top player in the PC OS market should be able to do better than 6% in a sub-market like MP3 players.
In 2010, there will be a Zune after market in paperweights.
So when is MS-Windows going to get good?
Seriously, though-- Zune 2 looks little different from Zune 1-- still no iTunes. If they deeply discount it, they'll sell a few to Windows cultists and people who can't be bothered to do 10 minutes of research before buying an MP3 player.
Reply:
Just read the reviews of XP and Vista and the reviews of OSX Tiger and Leopard. It's the OPPOSITE of reviews of Windows mobile and iPhone.
See what the leaders in IT are now using and you will realise that the tipping point will come.
But I'll be quite happy when Apple achieves 20% of the market, say by 2010. The change is coming like it or not.
Me, too. It's funny that IT heads (at least the top 50 percentile) run their server rooms on LINUX or Solaris, but make the "plebes" suffer from MSFT's antiquated OS.
Me, too. It's funny that IT heads (at least the top 50 percentile) run their server rooms on LINUX or Solaris, but make the "plebes" suffer from MSFT's antiquated OS.
At the moment there are an array of portable electronic devices that people carry round with them. Most people carry a mobile phone, many carry an MP3 player, lots carry a gaming machine and quite a few carry a camera. Nowadays many of these devices are multifunction, for instance most phones incorporate a camera and play games. The problem is that they don’t do the subsidiary tasks as well as a dedicated device. But this is changing with devices like the iPhone and Sony Ericsson K850i which are as good as a dedicated devices at more than one task.
So there is a change in philosophy as manufacturers try and make genuine multi function devices. They are going to be helped by some very important technology changes that are happening right now.
The weakness of all portable devices is that they have to carry their own power with them. Over the years battery life has become a lot better by controlling device power usage and by improving battery energy density. We have gone from NiCad to Nicked Metal Hydride to Lithium. And the standby time on my phone has gone from one day to ten. But now we are about to have a jump in battery energy density with the use of nanotechnology. These new generation batteries will have the added advantage of charging very quickly indeed.
There is an imminent jump in display technology. Current colour LED displays are very power inefficient. They achieve their colour by using filters so they require strong backlighting to work, which eats energy. Their complexity makes them expensive to manufacture. New polymer displays look just like a colour photograph. That moves. The colour is in the surface. They use far less power, are cheap to manufacture and, very interestingly, can be curved to follow a surface.
Low power RISC computers were intended to do simple tasks using little power. Your car airbags use them. However ARM have made them progressively more powerful whilst continuously introducing technologies to reduce their power consumption. Now different parts of a processor run at different changing speeds (from zero) depending upon the demands placed on them. ARM processors are used in many phones and in the Nintendo DS. But they are continually evolving to be far more powerful with minimum power consumption.
WiFi. As this rolls out around the world and as more devices incorporate it there will be a profound effect. Your pocket device, and therefore you, will be connected to the internet. The sum of all human knowledge will be in your pocket.
Cheap memory. We are used to Moores law delivering this. The big change for portable devices is Flash memory. This has become so cheap that Apple, with their iPods, have been gradually switching from using miniature hard drives to using Flash. Future generation mobile devices will be able to put massive amounts of this memory into your pocket for very little cost and very little power usage. This really does make the UMD drive in the Sony PSP look like agricultural engineering.
Gesture interface. We have covered this in an earlier article. Already we are seeing it in the iPhone. Basically the only conventional switch you need will be an on/off switch. The interface will be by an infinitely re-configerable touch screen(s) and an accelerometer. So your device will look completely different depending on what you are using it for and you will control it by moving, stroking and touching it.
In this device war Sony have a massive advantage because they already make phones, cameras, MP3 players and a mobile games machine. All they have to do is overcome the internal politics to get these different divisions working together. (Something they have largely failed to do with their film and games divisions). Apple have a lot further to go in taking on board photography and gaming at a higher level. Nokia have a longer journey if one looks at their clumsy attempts at gaming thus far. It will be very interesting to see what Nintendo do with all this technology. As for Microsoft, who know where they are going with portable devices. Is Zune their first move towards another area of global domination?
One thing that should be very obvious here is that mobile gaming has the potential to be far bigger than home gaming. Because everyone will be carrying a powerful gaming machine around with them all the time. A gaming machine that is connected to the internet.