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STEC, Inc. (NASDAQ:STEC)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call

November 13, 2007 4:30 pm ET

Executives

Mitch Gellman - Investor Relations

Manouch Moshayedi - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Dan Moses - Chief Financial Officer and Director

Analysts

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Erica, and I will be yourconference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to theSTEC Q3 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to preventany background noise. After the speakers remark there will be aquestion-and-answer session (Operator Instructions).

Thank you. Mr. Gellman, you may begin your conference.

Mitch Gellman

Thanks, Erica. Welcome, everyone. Good afternoon. Thanksagain for joining us today for our Q3 2007 earnings conference call. First ofall, I would just like to update you on our upcoming analyst day and ourconference presentation schedule. On Thursday, November 29 we will hold oursecond analyst and portfolio manager half-day event at the NASDAQ market sitein New York City.

If you have not RSVPed, please do so by e-mail atIR@stec-inc.com. That will go directly to me. Thank you very much. As far asconferences, on Wednesday, November 28, the day before our analyst day, we willbe presenting at the CIBC World Markets Third Annual Mid and Small Cap BestIdeas Conference. That is also in New York City. In December, Thursday,December 6 we will be presenting at the Lehman Brothers, the Global TechConference in San Francisco.

And to kick off 2008 we present at the Needham &Companies 10th Annual Growth Stock Conference also in New York City. With metoday for today's discussion and Q&A session are Chairman and CEO ManouchMoshayedi and Chief Financial Officer and Director, Dan Moses.

Various comments about the company's future expectations,plans, prospects made during today's earnings conference call, including thequestion-and-answer session, constitute forward-looking statements within themeaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21Eof the Securities Act of 1934 as amended and are based on management's currentexpectations.

These forward-looking statements entail various significantrisks and uncertainties that could cost actual results to differ materiallyfrom those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

The risks and uncertainties are detailed under Risk Factorsin filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission made from time to timeby us, including our annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly reports on Form10-Q and our currently reports on Form 8-K, including the Form 8-K filedearlier today for this news release.

The filings are available under the category SEC filings inthe Investor Relations section at our website, which is www.stec-inc.com.Forward-looking statements in this teleconference are generally identified bywords such as believes, anticipates, expects, intend, may, will and othersimilar expressions.

However, these words are not the only way we identifyforward-looking statements. In addition, any statements that refer toexpectations, projections or characterizations of future events orcircumstances are forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned not toplace undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which represents ourviews only as of today.

While we may elect to update forward-looking statements atsome point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so,even if our estimates change, and therefore, you should not rely on theseforward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequentto today.

Thanks again for joining us, and now I would like to turnthe call over to our CFO Dan Moses. Dan?

Dan Moses

Thank you, Mitch, and welcome, everyone. We continue to makesignificant strides towards completing our strategic plans to add significantlow-cost manufacturing capacity in Malaysia, introduce and ramp to substantialrevenue levels or new high-growth high-margin SSD product lines andsignificantly lower our effective income tax rate.

The construction of our Malaysia facility will be completedthis month. We plan to transfer production equipment from our interim facilityin Malaysia to our permanent facility in January of 2008 and begin producingSSD products in the facility during the second quarter of 2008. And then rampto significant production volumes by the third quarter of 2008.

Further, we expect several significant customers of ourZeusIOPS product line to transition from the current qualification stage tofull-scale production during the next two to three quarters. In addition, weexpect to begin sampling our MACH8 and Mach8IOPS SSD product lines beforeyear-end.

Our global tax structure is nearly in place, and we expectto see our effected income tax rate begin to decline in the second half of2008. For the third quarter of 2007, on a continuing operations basis, revenuesby product line were as follows.

Flash memory was $27.9 million or 63% of total revenues,DRAM memory was $14.0 million or 31% of total revenues, and service revenue andother was $2.8 million or 6% of total revenues. International sales comprised19% of our total revenue in the third quarter of 2007.

Our average sale price for non-service revenue decreasedfrom $33 per unit in the second quarter of 2007 to $30 per unit in the thirdquarter. Average shipment density for our memory products increased from 1.0Gigabyte in the second quarter of 2007 to 1.1 Gigabyte in the third quarter.

We ship 1.4 million total non-service units in the thirdquarter of 2007, up from 1.3 million units in the second quarter of 2007.

GAAP results include several expense items that we do notexpect to recur in our long-term operating model. These items are detailed inour third quarter of 2007 earnings release that was issued earlier today.

The following comparisons are based on non-GAAP operatingexpenses from continuing operations for the second and third quarters of 2007.Non-GAAP sales and marketing spending decreased from $4.3 million in the secondquarter of 2007 to $4.0 million in the third quarter of 2007.

Non-GAAP general and administrative spending was relativelyflat at $3.5 million in the third quarter of 2007 compared to $3.4 million inthe second quarter. Non-GAAP research and development spending was alsorelatively flat at $3.1 million in the third quarter of 2007 compared to $3.2million in the second quarter.

Capital expenditures were $10.7 million during the thirdquarter of 2007, and depreciation expense was approximately $1.2 million duringthe quarter. The capital expenditures related primarily to construction costsand new production equipment purchased for our Malaysian facility.

We're projecting third quarter of 2007 results to range fromrevenue of $48 to $51 million with diluted non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 to $0.09 pershare.

Thank you again for joining us today. This concludes ourprepared remarks, and now Manouch, Mitch and I would like to open it up forquestions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from theline of Gordon Johnson with Lehman Brothers.

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

Hello, guys. Can you hear me?

Manouch Moshayedi

Yes.

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

Congratulations on a good quarter and guidance.

Manouch Moshayedi

Thank you.

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

I just wanted to ask a question on the expected revenue fromZeusIOPS next year. Is there any potential given what you guys have seen sincethe last call that we could see potentially higher revenue or a higher estimatethere?

Manouch Moshayedi

Right now we are still projecting $50 million, and we thinkthat that is a conservative view. But we will have to wait and see. That isbased on the few customers who have already qualified or are in the laterstages of qualification of ZeusIOPS into their systems.

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

Okay. Thank you.

Manouch Moshayedi

I think given what, I think $50 million is a good numberstill to go with.

Gordon Johnson - Lehman Brothers

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Bob Gujavarty withDeutsche Bank.

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thanks guys. Did you purchase any shares in thequarter?

Manouch Moshayedi

Yes, you mean the Company or…?

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Yes, the Company I mean.

Manouch Moshayedi

The Company did not buy any shares in the quarter.

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Did not? Okay. And could you go through some CapExexpectations for next quarter and then maybe just some inkling of what youthink you can, 2008 could look like?

Dan Moses

Sure. For Q4, and again this is primarily being driven bythe finalization of the building in Malaysia, we are expecting about $8 to $10million of final construction payments and some equipment. We expect thatshould wrap up, the construction costs in Q4.

Next year we will be buying a little bit more equipment,mainly testing equipment, that type of thing. But it should be markedly lowerthan what we saw in 2007. So if I had to estimate it, I would say maybesomewhere between $4 and $6 million of equipment fixed assets for next year. Itshould come way down.

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Okay. Great. And then just one final question. As the ZeusIOPSproduct becomes a bigger portion of your mix, how should I think about thatfrom a margin perspective? Is it pretty much in line with your other Flashsegments, the rest of the Flash segment, or do you think it moves it one way orthe other?

Manouch Moshayedi

At this point we're projecting a 50% plus margin growth.

Bob Gujavarty - Deutsche Bank

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys, and congratulations.

Manouch Moshayedi

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Gelbtuchwith CIBC.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Hello, Congratulations on an excellent quarter and prettygood guidance. As far as the tax rate is concerned, you mentioned that youexpect it to start declining in the second half of next year. Where should webe looking for it to shake out towards the end of the year?

Dan Moses

It is very difficult to project exactly at a point in timebecause there's a lot of variables. I think once everything settles and we areout a couple of two years or so, we're hoping to get it down as low as 20% ifnot even lower than that.

The variables are what is eligible for low or no taxes areproducts that are built in Malaysia that are shipped internationally either tointernational subs of U.S. companies or to international companies, and usingIP that was co-developed by Cayman.

The Cayman entity that we have actually owns the foreignrights to all the ZeusIOPS product. Because when we did the acquisition lastyear, we were able to buy the foreign rights to our Cayman entity.

So, ZeusIOPS is technology, the foreign rights of which areowned by Cayman and then anything we have been building since April this year,all the new products based on new controllers will be owned by Cayman.

So, the mix of products and how quickly we can get customersto contract with us internationally are kind of the variables, but we do expectto increase in ZeusIOPS sales second half of next year. We should be able tobuild that product out of Malaysia.

So, we know that there will be some part of the mix thatwill be subject to the low tax rate. So, I cannot really give you a good numberat this early stage.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

I understand, but as far as the, it should peak out probablyin the second quarter, is that what you are saying, the tax rate?

Dan Moses

Yes, well, yes, I would say so. I would say pretty much thisquarter, next quarter, all the way through Q2. It is going to probably behigher than our normal because we're actually co-funding R&D expensesthrough Cayman and they really are not collecting any IP royalties yet.

So, yes, I would say it would peak out in Q2, and then weshould start to get some revenue into Cayman Q3 of next year.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

All right. Now switching gears to, let's say, ZeusIOPS,obviously you have a whole bunch of testing going on. How many customers and isthere any you could give us some number of how many customers you have in,let's say, beta testing right now or beta testing and beyond and are alreadycustomer testing?

Manouch Moshayedi

I would say in total, people who can use ZeusIOPS, there areprobably about four to five major companies that would use ZeusIOPS in theright application and then there are probably about 20 companies below themthat would use ZeusIOPS, but not in the majority of the work.

We are qualifying parts at all 25. We are I would say wayahead of the rest of the 20 with the five first, so the top five are I wouldsay in the later stages of qualifications at this point. So, there are nocustomers in the world that can use ZeusIOPS that we have not approachedalready.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

I have got you, when you say that they are well underway inthe qualification stage, you are saying they are already at beta testing andbeyond?

Manouch Moshayedi

Yes.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

They are already directly some of them theoretically couldhave products that are in the hands of potential customers?

Manouch Moshayedi

We would think that sometime around first of or late firstquarter of next year, you will see announcements from the big storageenterprise storage companies about using ZeusIOPS in their systems.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Okay. Now, as far as Zeus MACH products, can you just updateus on what you see the timeline for adoption and obviously, that's a very largepotential market, but it might have different economics triggers thanobviously, the ZeusIOPS, but what do you see as the timeline for that market'sadoption?

Manouch Moshayedi

But, the MACH8 and MACH8IOPS will be sampling at the end ofthis month to the biggest customers who would be able to use this product.Everyone is extremely anxious about it because this is the highest technologyproduct that is out there.

There is no eight-channel controller SSD out there at thispoint, no one has announced it and I would say everybody who would be in it isat least two or three quarters behind. So most of the major PC and servercompanies, who could use SSDs are waiting for us to sample them the product. Ithink it will have a shorter qualification time span than the ZeusIOPS.

I think it will probably start the qualification would endin about six months rather than the 12 months that has taken the ZeusIOPS. So,I think we should be able to start getting good revenue out of the MACH8 andMACH8IOPS somewhere around third quarter of next year.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Okay. And as far as competition in that space and I guessmaybe touch on what competition for ZeusIOPS, Mach8IOPS or Zeus MACH8, howwould you characterize the competitive landscape for all three?

Manouch Moshayedi

Okay. I think, there is a paragraph in our press releasetoday just trying to set aside all the misinterpretations, misunderstandingsthat's out there about announcements from different companies who have come outand said, we're going to get into SATA SSDs and oh, we have SATA SSDs or othertypes of SSDs that are out there or people are thinking about coming out, noneof which are going to be even comparable to what we offer in our ZeusIOPS. Sopeople have to put that out of their mind that there is a competition onZeusIOPS product line.

And based on the complexity of this product, we don't seeanyone, if they all decided that they wanted to get into it, it will take atleast a year, a year and a half for people to actually come up with this typeof product. So since we have not seen any press releases from anyone, we don’tthink that anyone is even thinking about coming out with a ZeusIOPS compatibleproduct.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

What is the distinguishing Factor? Is it the eight-channelconfiguration? Is it the IOPS per second performance?

Manouch Moshayedi

Right. So the ZeusIOPS is a 16-channel controller that ismuch faster than anything that’s out there. It is specifically built for theenterprise server and storage applications. It replaces 30 actual hard driveswhen it’s applied into those markets.

So it is a completely different product than just a regularSSD. Because the IOPS that it has is so much higher than anything that is outthere or anyone is even imagining of coming out with. Then we get into MACH8and Mach8IOPS.

And MACH8 product line would go into low-end servers andPCs, and since that is eight-channel controller, still it works faster thananyone's SSD that is out there. Because the best SSD product that’s out theretoday is using a four-channel controller. So, therefore, it is not as fast asthe MACH8 product.

On those we have the Mach8IOPS, which has got extracircuitry in it and extra components on it that will make this product again interms of IOPS quite superior to the regular SSDs that are out there that isbuilt specifically for high-end server markets.

So these are the three product types that we're coming outwith. And if you think about who is going to be a competitor in this market, Iwould say on ZeusIOPS we don't expect anyone to come into this market for the2008. On the MACH8 product line, we will see competition probably in the secondhalf of next year. In the Mach8IOPS we will probably see competition at the endof 2008.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Okay. And again for the MACH8 and the Mach8IOPS, who do youpeg as the competitor in the second half of next year?

Manouch Moshayedi

I would say the best current candidates to be a competitorin that market will be people who are actually today making Flash components.

Daniel Gelbtuch - CIBC

Okay. Thank you, Manouch.

Manouch Moshayedi

You are welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of SalomonKamalodine.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Hi, I want to get an idea of how much visibility you haveinto this $50 million projection for next year, Manouch. Is that based on thetop five customers in particular where you expect to get bigger design wins, oris that based on having some wins at all 25 customers?

Manouch Moshayedi

This is mostly based on the top five. And if we getdesign-in and the thing is, if you look at the whole market that would useZeusIOPS, there is one organization that is about 50% of the whole market, andthen there are a couple of other companies who are about 20% of the market. Andthen all the other companies, all the other 22 or so fall in the 10%, 15% ofthe market.

So once you get into the top three or four, you have gotmost of the market wrapped up. So that is where we are today, and we think thatthe projection of $50 million will come in primarily from a couple ofcustomers.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Great. And you talked about 50% gross margins on theZeusIOPS drive. What kind of ASPs do you have in mind with this?

Manouch Moshayedi

What kind of ASPs?

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Great. And you talked about 50% gross margins on theZeusIOPS drive. What kind of ASPs do you have in mind with this?

Manouch Moshayedi

What kind of ASPs?

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Yes, for at this particular large customer where presumablyASPs would have to be a bit lower than …?

Manouch Moshayedi

Right. Based on the slide that we are projecting for SSDchips during 2008, I would say that our projections are based on a $5000 perunit.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Got it. Can you just give us an idea of the product mix inthe Flash business in the September quarter in terms of TF cards versus theydrives and maybe give us the sampling revenue from the Zeus product in theSeptember quarter?

Dan Moses

Sure. So we did about roughly $28 million in the quarter forFlash, let me get the exact number. Yes, we actually did $27.9 million in totalFlash for the quarter. Almost 21 of it was based on CompactFlash. We had about4.5 that was SSD and of that I believe about $3 million of it was ZeusIOPS,$2.5 to $3 million.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Okay. So there is going to be another $3 million from Zeus?

Dan Moses

Yes, there is a variety of other interfaces and formfactors, ATA, MMC, SD, USB. There is a variety of other smaller ones, but thereare all under $1 million.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Okay. And the gross margin in that business?

Dan Moses

The gross margin on Flash, I don't actually have it in frontme. Let me grab it and I will say it before the call is over.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Okay. Thanks. A couple of more, what is going on with HP atthis point? Have they come back any DRAM business? Also, I was under theimpression that you guys could potentially be shipping some Flash parts to themthis year, maybe next year.

Can we get an update on that?

Manouch Moshayedi

Yes, so we are continuing our work in terms of Flashqualifications at all customers, HP included. And we are still in a good; we'reshipping a good amount of revenue on a quarterly basis to HP.

As you can see right now, I think this quarter we have gotsomewhere around $2.5 million of basically service revenue that is taken out ofthe DRAM, when we shipped it out to HP.

So we don't have the business still at the same levels as wehad it in 2006, but it still is I think this year including DRAM into therevenue, I think we would do somewhere around $20 to $22 million.

Dan Moses

Okay. So I'm going to have the gross profit margins by theproduct categories. So we have got the DRAM memory product category is about 9%and Flash is about 40. A couple of things are happening. These are all GAAPnumbers, so there are some Malaysian costs and the onetime inventory write-offthat was kind of abnormal in the quarter, so bringing down some of thesenumbers.

And then also as we go forward, we're expecting a prettygood size increase in ZeusIOPS in Q4, which is going to be at a higher marginthan the normal Flash products that we have. And then as the revenues go uptoo, we will be able to absorb more of the cost amongst the higher revenues.

So it is actually a little bit lower than normal for theFlash category, but we expect it to start to turn back up beginning thisquarter.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

So you allocated the PCB write-off and the Malaysian ramp-upcosts to the Flash ..?

Dan Moses

Well, the write-off is actually going to be fully, that is aDRAM write-off. So that would actually go against DRAM. But the Malaysian costswould be spread evenly by revenue.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

And would it be fair to say that because you may have beenworking through some higher cost inventory bought in the second quarter thatmay have impacted your margins in the Flash business in Q3?

Dan Moses

You know, I would have to go back and take a look at exactlywhere the drop came by product category, but it is probably a combination of avariety of factors. The ones I listed that also could be part of the issue aswell.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Okay.

Dan Moses

I would expect that to tick up into Q4.

Salomon Kamalodine - Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Dan Moses

Okay.

Operator

Your next questions come from the line of Richard Shannonwith Northland Securities.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Hi guys, how are you?

Manouch Moshayedi

Good. How are you feeling?

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Not to bad. The first question following up on one of thequestions previously about you are actually takes us $50 million in ZeusIOPSrevenues in 2008. How sensitive is that to your expectations of what SOCpricing is going to be?

Manouch Moshayedi

Richard, you are getting completely cut out, so we cannothear what you are saying.

Dan Moses

I think his question was on the ZeusIOPS, how sensitive isit to the components, Flash component prices changing. Is that right?

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Yes, it is. Can you hear me a little better now?

Manouch Moshayedi

Okay.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Sorry about that.

Manouch Moshayedi

I had to guess what your question was. I think Dan's hearingis much better than mine. But ZeusIOPS basically our customers understand aformula that we have given them in terms of margin and how price of Flashaffects it.

So, up or down the price of Flash components will definitelybe affected ZeusIOPS. So, it definitely makes a difference on that.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Is there any way that you can give us a sense of what levelof SOC pricing is required to get to that level of units and ASPs that you aregoing to see that $50 million?

Dan Moses

To get to our 50 estimate

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Okay.

Dan Moses

So, where do we think pricing is going to be?

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Yes, how much lower does it need to be than it is today inorder to see that as a reasonable estimate?

Manouch Moshayedi

Okay. I do not think that ZeusIOPS is as susceptible topricing as a regular SSD would be for the PC and low-end servers. So, todaywe're shipping out our ZeusIOPS somewhere around the $10,000 per unit.

It is even at this price is about 40% of the price of usinghard drives. Plus, it can save about 90% of the maintenance cost on a yearlybasis. So, there is a significant 60% savings for any of our customers whowould use the ZeusIOPS versus a rotating hard drive.

So, the price is not such a big part of the whole deal whenyou are talking about ZeusIOPS. For the SSDs and when it goes into PCs andlaptops and low-end servers, the price would be different. It would be a bignumber.

However, for the $50 million, we're calculating about 10,000units shipped in 2008 at $5000 a piece.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Great. A couple of very quick follow-up questions here. Dan,what was the amount of DRAM units you shipped in the third quarter?

Dan Moses

Come again, Richard?

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

The number of DRAM units you shipped in the third quarter?

Dan Moses

Sure. Third-quarter unit volume for DRAM was 303,000 units.Flash was about 1.1 million.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Okay. Great. And then the last one for me. Can you give usan idea of what your assumptions are for DRAM pricing that is included orembedded in your fourth quarter guidance?

Manouch Moshayedi

I think DRAM pricing is as low as we are going to see themfor a while and we actually are predicting pretty stable DRAM prices at thispoint.

Richard Shannon - Northland Securities

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot guys

Manouch Moshayedi

All right.

Dan Moses

Thanks Richard.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Manouch Moshayedi

Thank you very much for participating today. Talk to youguys later.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may nowdisconnect.

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