Tracking BusinessWeek's Fearless Forecasters

Each year, BusinessWeek publishes its Fearless Forecasts of what is in store for the year to come from a number of Wall Street strategists. With year-end closing in, below we highlight how the forecasts have shaped up thus far. At the end of '06, the consensus year-end '07 estimate for the Dow from the Fearless Forecasters was 13,154.38. This average meant strategists were looking for a gain of 5.55%. Currently, the Dow is up 6.92% at 13,325. The consensus year-end '07 estimate for the S&P 500 was 1,501.29 [a gain of 5.85% on the year]. The S&P 500 is currently at 1,482, so it has a little further to go to catch up to the average.

click to enlarge

The Fearless Forecasters have done a pretty good job so far on their individual stock picks. Of the 50 stocks that were recommended, 32 are up on the year for an average gain of 20.59%. Mosaic (MOS) is up the most at 216%, followed by China Mobile (CHL) up 112%, Apple (AAPL) 102.79%, MasterCard (MA) 92.69%, Apollo (APOL) 86.66% and Monsanto (MON) at 81.99%. Lennar (LEN), Home Solutions (HSOA), NutraCea (NTRZ) and Daktronics (DAKT) have been the worst performing recommendations.

Comments

[Donald Johnson:]

How are the Barron's Jan and July roundtables doing?

Strategy. Buy the 50 stocks. Hold unless they fall to 8% or 10% below the buy point.

2007 Nov 15 11:19 AM

[leonard fr ...:]

I have in my portfoilo AAPL CF MA MOS along with 13-15 other stocks. The 4 mention stocks have covered any and all stock declines and have given me the time to hold on and in 8 stocks where I had loses to sell at profits of 12-27 %. God bless America.

2007 Nov 15 03:32 PM

[doeboy:]

DAKT is positioning to trounce the estimates. Contracts are pouring in one after the next. Supply chain issues appear to be resolved. At the current price sub -20$ it's such a great opportunity. If you can take more risk I also like the Jan 09 25 calls. This one looks to move.
Long: DAKT

2008 Jan 19 09:18 PM