Recession Watch: It's Probably Already Here

Over at Silicon Alley Insider, we've been tracking recession signs for the past few months. Enough bad news is coming out now from enough industries now that I think it's reasonable to assume that we're already in a recession (Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most recessions usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one).

Of course, whether we are technically in a recession or not is irrelevant--it's the trend that matters. And the trend is still getting worse. We continue to believe that the growing weakness will eventually hit online advertising, hurting AOL (TWX), Yahoo (YHOO), Google (GOOG), and others.

For example, during the 24 hours before the weekend alone, here's what's happened:

• FedEx (FDX) cuts outlook, blames higher prices and economic weakness.
• Starbucks (SBUX) has weak quarter, blames economy and price inflation.
• Internet Brands reduces size/price of IPO.
• New York Times (NYT) reports weak October revenues, especially in retail advertising...

Full recession timeline and background here.

Comments

[gc.alpha:]

Very salient points. Traditional media with declining revenues. Uh huh.
A transport company that's challenged by high fuel costs. Hmmm.
A coffee co with shops at every street corner with problems? - What was their excuse last year - oh yeah - it was so hot that they made a lot of frozen mixed drinks that slowed down their throughput.

2007 Nov 18 10:53 AM

[Carl leason:]

Good points and as a Realtor for the past 26 years, I have never seen sales so slow ! It's very similar to the Reagan Years when Herb Volker raised interest rates, to the point that mortgages were at the 17-18 pct rate. ! Home sales have dropped tremendously and that affects the whole economy. Car / Truck sales are way down even with low or zero int. rates are being offered .
It's time we all realized that we ARE in a recession ! LC

2007 Nov 19 01:32 PM