While the price of buy-recommended Berry Petroleum (BRY) is above estimated net present value [NPV] currently estimated at $44 a share, oil price has again advanced beyond that anticipated in NPV. Third quarter results reported today point to a jump to new records in unlevered cash flow (Ebitda) beginning in the next quarter as a result of oil price increases now in the futures market.
Projected cash flow capitalized at unlevered multiples (PV/Ebitda) related to reserve life (Adjusted R/P) supports estimated NPV concentrated 73% on oil. Attempting to enhance further a more than three-fold total return for investors in less than four years, management announced on October 22 that it plans to offer in early 2008 a new MLP. That will present investors an income alternative in addition to capital gain potential in BRY.
Meanwhile, six-year oil price doubled from the end of 2004 to mid 2006, traded sideways for almost a year and now is rising again perhaps toward another double, subject to short declines from time to time.
Originally published on October 31, 2007.