Executives
Ron Slaymaker - Vice President, Manager, Investor Relations
Analysts
Glenn Yu
Chris Danely - J.P. Morgan
Jim Covello - Goldman Sachs
Sumit Dhanda - Banc of America Securities
Srini Pajjuri - Merrill Lynch
John Lau - Jefferies & Company
Joanne Feeney - FTN Midwest
Tristan Gerra - Robert W. Baird & Co.
Uche Orji - UBS
Krishna Shankar - JMP Securities
Cody Acree - Stifel Nicolaus
Daniel Berenbaum - Caris & Company
Tim Luke - Lehman Brothers
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) F4Q07 Mid-Quarter Financial Update Call December 10, 2007 5:00 PM ET
Operator
Good afternoon. My name is Kristy and I will be yourconference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone toTI's fourth quarter 2007 mid-quarter financial update. (Operator Instructions)Mr. Slaymaker, you may begin your conference.
Ron Slaymaker
Good afternoon and thank you for joining TI's fourth quartermid-quarter financial update. In a moment, I will provide a short summary ofTI's current expectations for the quarter, updating the revenue and EPSestimate ranges for the company, as well as the revenue range expectations forboth of the segments, semiconductor and education technology. In general, Iwill not provide detailed information on revenues trends by products or endmarkets below these segments and I will not address margins. In our earningsrelease at the end of the quarter, we will provide these details as usual.
After today’s call, we will not be available for furtherdiscussion this evening. Considering the limited information available at thispoint in the quarter and in consideration of everyone’s time, we will limitthis call to 30 minutes.
For any of you who missed the release, you can find it onour website at ti.com/ir. This call is broadcast live over the web and can beaccessed through TI's website. A replay will be available through the web.
This call will include forward-looking statements thatinvolve risk factors that could cause TI's results to differ materially frommanagement’s current expectations. We encourage you to review the Safe Harborstatement contained in the news release published today as well as TI's mostrecent SEC filings for a complete description.
We have narrowed the range of our revenue guidance asfollows: company revenue is now expected to be between $3.50 billion and $3.66billion, or a sequential decline of 4% to flat sequentially. Semiconductorrevenue is expected to be between $3.43 billion and $3.57 billion, or asequential decline of 1% to a sequential growth of 3%, and education technologyrevenue is expected to be between $70 million and $90 million, unchanged fromthe prior estimate.
We have narrowed the earnings per share range to between$0.50 and $0.54 compared with the prior range of $0.48 to $0.54 and thirdquarter EPS of $0.52.
Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In orderto provide as many of you as possible the opportunity to ask a question, pleaselimit yourself to a single question. I will provide you the opportunity to aska follow-up question. Operator.
Question-and-AnswerSession
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from GlennYu.
Glenn Yu
If I look at your guidance for revenues and then take a lookat your guidance for earnings and think about where the consensus is for grossmargin, it would seem to me that you are implying there’s a relatively healthyincrease in gross margins relative to consensus. I just want to make sure we’rethinking about that the right way.
Ron Slaymaker
Glenn, I’ll be honest; I don’t know what the consensusassumption is on gross margin, but I think if you look at the -- let me pointout one thing, though, about gross margin. Recall that in the third quarter, wehad $39 million of gain from the sale of our DSL product line, so that would becertainly a pressure on gross margin and of course, that won’t recur in thefourth quarter.
The other thing I would just point out is that if you lookat third quarter, you see a decline on the OpEx side, specifically in R&D.I think we attributed that to some of the action that we had taken back inJanuary on basically moving to a more collaborative model on process technologydevelopment with our foundries versus developing process technologies on thedigital CMOS side independently. And I think what we had indicated even back inJanuary was that action would continue through the course of 2007 and bewrapped up by the end of the year. So I think you are seeing some OpEx benefitscontinue to accrue from that action as well. Do you have a follow-up?
Glenn Yu
Yeah, Ron, just with respect to the gross margins again; canyou give us a sense as to the mix between wireless and analog? And I’m notasking [you to summarize] but just relative to your expectations at the startof the quarter, has that looked different than you thought it might?
Ron Slaymaker
Maybe a little bit. I would describe analog as having asolid quarter, right along the lines of what we had expected though. Wirelessis probably doing a little better than we expected and if you’ll recall back inOctober in our conference call, we explained there really were two factorsdriving the unseasonably weak fourth quarter outlook for our wireless revenue.
The first was a ramping down of a 3G program at Ericsson.This is happening pretty much right as we had expected. The second factor thatwe talked about then was that our wireless customers were projecting that theirdemand for the month do December would decline relative to what they wereforecasting for October and November. And that part’s changed and we now seethe levels that we experienced in October and November pretty much sustainingthrough the month of December, so that’s probably the change but analogcertainly is having a solid quarter as well.
Okay, Glenn, thank you for your questions. Let’s move to thenext caller.
Operator
Your next question comes from Chris Danely.
Chris Danely - J.P.Morgan
Thanks, Ron. Way to make me look bad. Kidding, kidding.Anyway, can you just talk about in terms of end markets, can you give us anycolor on overall what’s been stronger than expected?
Ron Slaymaker
You know, I don’t know from an end market perspective that Ican describe it other than the comments I just made on wireless and again, evenif you go back to our statements in October, what we described then was thatwireless was really the only area that we expected to be significantly weakerthan what would normally be expected in the fourth quarter from a seasonalperspective. I would say that remains the case today.
Wireless is below its seasonal trend but again, most of theweakness that we are seeing is isolated to the Ericsson 3G program that we’vediscussed before.
If I think outside of wireless, I guess I would say thattraditional computing and peripheral areas are continuing to run strong. Thatwould be especially on the notebook side. For TI, really that translates into analogproduct areas such as battery management, as well as products that we sell intoperipherals, such as hard disk drives and printers.
But again, that’s not necessarily above what we had expectedback in October but are areas that we’re seeing strength continue in as well.Do you have a follow-up, Chris?
Chris Danely - J.P.Morgan
How would you characterize your overall visibility lookinginto Q1? Would you say it’s normal, better than expected or seasonal or worsethan expected or seasonal?
Ron Slaymaker
Yeah, I would say just from a general visibility, probablynot much different than what we’ve seen over the last few quarters and thatreally just reflects short lead times that we’re maintaining and frankly,delivery performance that’s doing pretty well, such that customers have beenable to run without a lot of what I would describe as extended backlog. Butprobably when you compare it to last few quarters, nothing really has changedon that front.
Okay, Chris, thank you for your questions and we’ll move tothe next caller, please.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jim Covello.
Jim Covello - GoldmanSachs
Ron, thanks so much. Just to follow-up with Chris’ lastquestion, when you say the visibility is about the same as it’s been, a coupleother analog companies have commented recently that they trends look a littlesofter into the first quarter. Now, maybe they are in a little bit differentsegments than you are or maybe they are just trying to be a little bit overlycautious but would you generally agree with what they’ve been saying or maybeyou haven’t had a chance to listen to what they’ve said?
Ron Slaymaker
I have not done a lot of study of what they said but I will,Jim, that when I say visibility is about the same, that doesn’t -- that’s nottrying to imply anything about order levels or levels of revenue that we wouldexpect in first quarter. What I am really trying to say is versus a verypreliminary internal estimate that we might have on first quarter outlook, howmuch of that is covered at this point in the fourth quarter by backlog and howthat compares to the same point in the last few quarters.
So it’s really a backlog coverage statement when I’mreferring to visibility, as opposed to do we expect revenue to be up or down.Do you have a follow-on, Jim?
Jim Covello - GoldmanSachs
No, that’s good for now. Thanks a lot.
Ron Slaymaker
Thank you. Next caller, please.
Operator
Your next question comes from Srini Pajjuri.
Ron Slaymaker
Srini, are you there? Operator, why don’t we move to thenext caller and try to come back to Srini if he comes back in.
Operator
Your next question comes from Sumit Dhanda.
Ron Slaymaker
Sumit, are you there?
Sumit Dhanda - Bancof America Securities
I’m here. Ron, can you hear me?
Ron Slaymaker
Yes, I can.
Sumit Dhanda - Bancof America Securities
Okay, sorry about that. I know it’s tough for you to givedetails on a specific segment but it seems like application-specific analog isdoing quite well. Is it fair to say that the same has held true for your HPAbusiness?
Ron Slaymaker
I would say that HPA is similarly performing quite solidlythis quarter and I would say also it’s performing very consistent with ourexpectations, even back in October, so despite a -- I know there’s been a lotof chatter about what’s going on in the high performance analog market and whatour trends might be there but what I’ll say is that our forecast for our highperformance analog revenue hasn’t changed from the time when we provided theinitial guidance back in October. Do you have a follow-on, Sumit?
Sumit Dhanda - Bancof America Securities
Yeah, a quick one. I don’t know if you can answer this onebut anything you could offer up on sell-through versus sell-in in the channeland how your inventories are looking versus the last quarter, where I thinksell-in was actually a little higher than sell-through.
Ron Slaymaker
That is correct about last quarter. I guess I would say atthis point, we expect that distributor resales will be approximately flat tothat of the third quarter and the same for our shipments into distributors. Soagain, resales are pretty much flattish as well as our shipments in. Do youhave a -- I guess that was your follow-up. Let’s move to the next caller,please.
Operator
You have a question from Srini Pajjuri.
Ron Slaymaker
Hi, Srini, are you there now?
Srini Pajjuri -Merrill Lynch
Can you hear me now?
Ron Slaymaker
Yeah, we sure can.
Srini Pajjuri -Merrill Lynch
Okay, great. Just a couple of follow-ups to a previousquestion; you talk about areas of strength. I’m just wondering if you areseeing any areas of weakness.
Ron Slaymaker
Well, I would describe probably the biggest area of weaknessis the one we already discussed, which was wireless. So again, the statement onwireless is it’s still weak compared to what you might seasonally expect in afourth quarter but at the same time, it’s doing a little better than what wehad expected back in October. But outside of that, there aren’t any standoutareas of weakness that I would point toat all. A follow-up, Srini?
Srini Pajjuri -Merrill Lynch
Yeah, just on wireless -- the strength, I mean, anymorecolor that you could give us, Ron, whether it’s units or ASPs or maybe evenpotentially share gains?
Ron Slaymaker
You know, that level of detail, Srini, I really don’t have,especially when it comes to things like units and pricing. I mean, we’re justnot at a point -- in fact, I don’t even think we give a lot of that level ofdetail in January. Probably what I could say, just if you look at the mix, weexpect 3G part of our wireless business, specifically in the handset, to growsequentially and I would say that’s despite the declines associated with theprogram transition that’s underway at Ericsson.
Also, just a mix comment would be that entry products arealso doing probably a little better than what we had expected back in Octoberbut that’s probably about all the insight I have at this point on the wireless.
Okay, Srini, thank you for your questions and we’ll move tothe next call.
Operator
Your next question comes from John Lau.
John Lau - Jefferies& Company
Great. Thank you. Ron, a lot of people are continuing to beconcerned about inventory but you gave us a very, very interesting data pointand I wanted to know if I was reading that correctly. You mentioned thatcontinued pull-through on the wireless side made December a little bit betterand I coupled that in with some of the inputs that you had before that. Givenyour hub arrangement and the pull-through, can we assume that inventory levelsmust be normal in the channel at this point?
Ron Slaymaker
And this is specific to wireless or is this also a statementabout distributor channels?
John Lau - Jefferies& Company
Actually, both, if you can give that to us.
Ron Slaymaker
Okay. Well, first of all, in wireless, I don’t think it’seven possible to make statements about are they at the right level or wronglevel on inventory because it really just comes down to what sell-throughoccurs over the holidays.
So if they have a good holiday season, they could have toolittle inventory at this point. On the other hand, if it turns out to be weakerthan expected, then of course inventory could be described as high.
But I think to our best insight into that channel, we don’tsee anything that’s causing us concern but again, we won’t -- I don’t thinkanybody has real clarity on what the right level of wireless inventory until weget through the holiday season.
Distribution, I would say we’re feeling pretty good. Youheard us describe last quarter, that distributors had built some inventory,especially in high performance analog and that was a very targeted andproactive build that we and the distributors accomplished, especially in areaslike high performance analog where we felt and the distributors felt that theirinventory had gotten too lean back in the first half of the year.
With that build, we think things are pretty good. I wouldsay there’s probably still some targeted areas that distributors would desireto build a little bit more inventory but overall, things are -- you know, Iwould say things are relatively in good shape.
Did you have a follow-up, John, or was that your follow-up?
John Lau - Jefferies& Company
No, that was it. Thank you very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Joanne Feeney.
Joanne Feeney - FTNMidwest
A question on the capital spending plans. You say you arecontinuing to save on 4Q through the end of year. I’m just wondering, of yourcapital spending, what sort of purchases do you see as continue to be necessaryif you are cutting back on capacity? Is it more R&D now? Would you see thatas a higher proportion of your capital spending?
Ron Slaymaker
I would say that there’s probably less driven by what Iwould think of R&D, so for example, when I think of R&D, I think ofwhat used to consumer capital in that area would be process technologydevelopment and a lot of that is now moved from TI to our foundry suppliers interms of the capital spend. So that’s actually an action that we took earlierthis year that has relived us, you might say, of some capital spending burden.
I would say probably what will be the most significant areaof capital spend would be assembly test and that’s an area where we can onrelatively short notice make adjustments up or down as we need. It ties prettyclosely with revenue and unit expectations and again, we can adjust that up ordown as we need. But what we had described, I guess in October was that ourcapital spending this year is about $700 million is the plan. If we achievethis revenue guidance, that would probably be somewhere in the level of 5% ofour revenue and if you look at depreciation this year, it’s still forecast, asof October, to be $1 billion, which would be about 7% of revenue.
So we like the trends. The fact that CapEx remains belowdepreciation certainly bodes well for the depreciation trend as we move into2008 as well. Did you have a follow-up, Joanne?
Joanne Feeney - FTNMidwest
Yeah, a quick follow-up; we’re hearing of shortages in thecomputing space and some are telling us that this is likely to push the firstquarter into a less, a smaller seasonal decline than typical. Are you seeingthe same sorts of trends?
Ron Slaymaker
I don’t know that -- I believe most of the products thatwe’re shipping into that compute space, we’re keeping up with demand and I’mnot aware that we’re being impacted by shortages elsewhere. You certainly hearof areas here and there, but I don’t know what impact, what we’re seeing therein fourth quarter would have on first quarter, whether it would be a betterthan seasonal or normal seasonal trend in the first quarter. So unfortunately,I probably won’t be able to help you on that one.
Okay, Joanne, thank you and we’ll move to the next caller.
Operator
Your next question comes from Tristan Gerra.
Tristan Gerra -Robert W. Baird & Co.
What are the [inaudible] trends versus expectations so farin the quarter?
Ron Slaymaker
I’m sorry, could you repeat the first part of your question-- what type of trends?
Tristan Gerra -Robert W. Baird & Co.
What type of trends are you seeing in infrastructure[inaudible] to expectations so far in the quarter?
Ron Slaymaker
And this is like a wireless infrastructure statement? We’reseeing I would say probably the most notable area -- I don’t know that I have acomment on wireless infrastructure per se but in some of the areas like highdensity voice, we’ve seen some reasonable strength thus far in the quarter andI believe when we look into our infrastructure business, the -- I’ll call itenthusiasm, as least as it applies to this quarter is probably more focused onareas like high density voice as opposed to a big trend change in basestations. Do you have a follow-on, Tristan?
Tristan Gerra -Robert W. Baird & Co.
Sure. And then in terms of your expectations for low-endmobile phones as a percentage of your wireless revenues at the end of thisyear, do you have any percentage guidance that you could give us?
Ron Slaymaker
I don’t. You know what I can say is that it has beenyear-to-date probably in the 25% of our wireless revenue mix. That has been --I don’t want to say overwhelmed but 3G certainly is a larger part. 3G is morein the 40%, maybe even ticking up from that. But both are important and bothare growing. It’s probably areas more in the mid-range that we’ve actually seensome declines, just in terms of a percentage of the mix.
Okay, Tristan, thank you for your questions. Let’s move tothe next caller.
Operator
Your next question comes from Uche Orji.
Uche Orji - UBS
Just a couple of questions, first on the 3G. Can you tell uswhether the incremental trend you are seeing is coming more from OMAP or frombase-band? And if it’s one or the other, does that have any marginimplications?
Ron Slaymaker
I think we’re seeing it from both, frankly. In that case, wedon’t always -- not all of our customers always pull or always buy bothbase-band as well as OMAP from us. But probably more and more that is the trendand so what we’re seeing in terms of lift on and growth in 3G I believe wouldbe driven by both this quarter.
Uche Orji - UBS
Let me just ask you this one question; I don’t [inaudible]on operating expenses. Is that any change between the guidance provided in Q4on OpEx? I’m just trying to work through how the impact [this kind of flowsthrough] to the EPS?
Ron Slaymaker
You mean in terms of the annual guidance of $2.2 billion forR&D? That’s the only guidance that we provided on an OpEx line. We don’tguide on SG&A and don’t consider this a change in that guidance.
Okay, Uche, thank you for your questions. Let’s move to thenext caller.
Operator
Your next question comes from Krishna Shankar.
Krishna Shankar - JMPSecurities
Are you seeing any kind of -- as you look at your U.S.distributors, are you seeing any indications from them about either weakness indemand or any push-outs or can you comment anything on the U.S. distributionchannel at all?
Ron Slaymaker
I don’t have any -- the only comments I have on distributionwere worldwide. I don’t have that dissected down, Krishna, by region, sounfortunately I don’t have that level of comment to provide. Do you have afollow-on?
Krishna Shankar - JMPSecurities
Thank you. Congratulations on a good, solid update.
Operator
Your next question comes from Cody Acree.
Cody Acree - StifelNicolaus
Ron, on your discussions of inventory, it sounds like thingsare pretty lean right now, sell-in versus sell-through is not changing a lotbut if anything, things seem to be tight, whether it be wireless throughanalog. Do you have a sense whether or not this current situation now comparesto prior years and how that may put you in a position as you head into Q1?
Ron Slaymaker
I think it -- prior years or just at any point in time,you’ve had distribution inventory at times tend to move on the high side andwhen it does, we have to work it down at some point in the future. The way itis currently is the exact opposite. I would say it is lean by any historical measureand even though again we built some inventory in third quarter, by historicalmetrics, inventories at distributors remain lean. And they want to run it thatway. They are managing their assets to be more productive.
Frankly, they are relying more on their semiconductorvendors, TI specifically, you’ve heard us describe that our inventory trendshave moved up and frankly, that’s a good thing because it gives us bettervisibility into exactly how much inventory is out there. And that’s not a movedup this quarter but if you just look at the trends over the last few years,you’ve seen our inventories tick up somewhat.
That’s also a reflection of a product mix that is morefocused on areas like high performance analog, where it tends to be more of a catalogproduct, off-the-shelf type of -- maybe not completely off the shelf deliverybut short lead times are expected by the customers and we and they like thewhat I’ll call cyclical performance behavior better when we can maintain shortlead times and stay on top of demand versus what happens when we start slippingbehind that demand and customers feel the need to fill their own inventory offstockpile.
So again, I would say again, we think we’re lean oninventories and that feels good that we are at that level, as to how it mightplay out against future quarters.
Okay, Cody, did you have a follow-on question?
Cody Acree - StifelNicolaus
Yeah, just a quick question on lead times and with theleanness and relative strength of demand, have you had any changes in leadtimes across the different product segments?
Ron Slaymaker
Not any that would be notable. I would just in generalcharacterize that lead times remain relatively short and what I would say arestable on an overall basis.
Okay, Cody, thank you for your questions. We’ll move on tothe next caller.
Operator
Your next question comes from Daniel Berenbaum.
Daniel Berenbaum -Caris & Company
Your foundry partners have talked about their CapEx in 2008being down significantly. Does that in any way affect your relationship? Doesthat provide you with any capacity constraints? Are there any concerns that youhave there, either in terms of capacity or in terms of the technologydevelopment that you do with them?
Ron Slaymaker
Daniel, we really from our viewpoint of where that foundrycapacity sits and our demand on that, we think we’re going to be in good shape.We think the foundries in general will be in good shape with their capacitysituation looking forward, so we have -- you know, it’s an area that weabsolutely, as you are aware, stay on top of but we see nothing there thatconcerns us at this point. Do you have a follow-on, Daniel?
Daniel Berenbaum -Caris & Company
Maybe you could relate that a little bit to the back-end. Imean, you had said that your number one area of spending is in assembly andtest, so what are the differences in the situations between your comfort leveloutsourcing on the front end but maybe pulling a little bit more in-house onthe back end?
Ron Slaymaker
It really I would say, Daniel, comes down to just maybefinancial performance. On assembly tests, history tells us and we’ve also beenable to do a lot of call it just cost comparisons when we’ve done variousacquisitions that our costs of doing assembly test in-house are significantlyadvantaged versus what we can get on the outside.
On the other hand, when we look at what’s actually a muchmore capital intensive front-end type of situation, generally what we’ve foundis that our financial performance, as well as our -- frankly our deliveryperformance to our customers is enhanced by having more of what we’ve describedas a hybrid model where we have certainly levels of capacity internally that wemaintain very high levels of utilization on and then complement that with somepretty significant amounts of external capacity through the foundry.
Okay, Daniel, thank you for your questions and Operator, Ithink we have time for one additional caller.
Operator
The last question comes from Tim Luke.
Tim Luke - LehmanBrothers
Thanks, Ron, for fitting me in. I was wondering -- it soundsas if you are saying the sales out of the channel are fairly similar to thesales into the channel that your bookings, book to bill will be broadly aroundone, or are there seasonal elements in wireless DSP, for example, which take itlower because the first quarter is seasonally somewhat lower?
Ron Slaymaker
You’re right that there are seasonal elements that tend toimpact book-to-bill and order trends in fourth quarter but let me just describeit as this -- overall, orders remain solid. We won’t be providing informationon book-to-bill at mid-quarter updates because what we’ve found is that moreand more so, it has been a poor indicator at this point in the quarter of wherewe’ll end the quarter on book-to-bill.
For example, in each of the last two quarters, despite thebook-to-bill being well above one at the mid-quarter update, due to strongershipments in the last month of the quarter, the book-to-bill fell back by theend of the quarter then. So rather than trying to provide a number or a commenton book-to-bill, at this point in the quarter that we would expect to change,we’ve decided we just will stop providing it now.
But that’s just -- that comment just applies tobook-to-bill. Overall, I would just describe the order trends as remainingsolid thus far in the quarter.
Do you have a follow-on, Tim?
Tim Luke - LehmanBrothers
If I may, just a reminder of the framework for seasonalhistorical expectations in the beginning of the year. And I was wondering, inthe wireless area particularly, it would seem that some of your rivals haveseen some slippage in products going into the largest handset vendor andwhether that’s impacting your framework of expectations for ’08 now?
Ron Slaymaker
Okay, I think you asked initially what the normal seasonaltrend would be and what I can say is that in first quarter, typically wirelesshas been -- or I should say on average, this is an eight-year average -- hasbeen down about 6%. The range on that was minus 30% to plus 9%, so once again,be cautious when you use those averages.
Semiconductor overall for TI in first quarter has been flatto down slightly would be the seasonal average. Beyond that, as to whetheranything we’re seeing at Nokia or any other customer would be coming into play,I really don’t have any specific comments for you on that.
Did you have a follow-on, Tim? Okay, I believe that was yourfollow-up question, Tim, so we appreciate your questions and with that, we’llwrap up. Let me before we end the call remind you that the replay is availableon our website. Thank you and good evening.
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You maynow disconnect.
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