Will Apple's Leopard OS Change the PC Industry?

It's often said that a leopard cannot change its spots, but is the new Leopard operating system helping Apple (AAPL) change the PC industry?

Two recent ChangeWave surveys provide new insight on Leopard’s industry impact, along with a close look at consumer and corporate PC demand for 1st Quarter 2008.

Mac Sales Hit New All-Time High

Apple computer sales continue to show extraordinary momentum for the holidays, according to our latest PC buying survey of 3,872 consumers (Oct 29 – Nov. 5).

Not only do new Mac buyers report sky high satisfaction with their desktops and laptops, but planned Apple purchases for the next 90 days also look exceptionally robust, as seen below.

Tellingly, one-in-four respondents (24%) say that the release of Apple’s new Leopard operating system has made them more likely to buy a Mac in the future.

This is a huge finding that, among other things, demonstrates the immense appeal of other Apple products (e.g., iPods, iPhones) and the “halo effect” they are having on the new Leopard operating system – and not just among consumers.

Planned purchases of Apple Macs are also set to hit new highs on the corporate side as well, according to our November 12-23 survey of 1,964 respondents involved in their company’s PC purchasing decisions.

The following chart shows a 1-pt increase in corporate purchases of Apple laptops and desktops for the 1st quarter.

The bottom line for Apple is that Mac laptop and desktop sales to both consumers and corporations remain the biggest growth story in the PC industry – and it’s getting a major boost by the new Leopard operating system. Apple is definitely pleasing PC buyers’ palates this holiday season.

Is Dell Finally Stabilizing?

After two horrific downward years in our ChangeWave surveys, the tide among consumers finally appears to be stabilizing for Dell (DELL) – which managed to garner virtually the same market share in our current consumer survey as it had in our previous survey in August.

We believe the data should be interpreted cautiously, however, as Dell has previously shown signs of stabilizing among consumers (e.g., Jan 2007), only to resume its downward spiral within weeks.

But this time there are further encouraging signs for Dell – most notably their improved outlook is now extending to the corporate side as well.

The chart below shows the percentage of respondents involved with corporate purchasing who say their company plans to buy Dell PCs in the next quarter.

With Dell showing an uptick in corporate purchases, the overall picture appears brighter than any time during the past two years and supports the thesis that a modest turnaround has begun for the beleaguered box maker.

Just how much of an uptick is something we’ll revisit in our early January post-holiday consumer spending survey.

Mixed Signals for Hewlett-Packard

In another surprise finding, sales of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) computers appear weaker among consumers going forward – with planned buying of desktops (24%) and laptops (21%) both registering 4-point dips over the next 90 days.

This is unexpectedly weaker visibility for H-P among Alliance PC buyers for the holidays.

The story is more cheery for H-P’s corporate market share going forward, where planned desktop purchases (18%) remain stable, and laptops (16%) tick up by 1-point.

All told, the numbers represent a surprisingly mixed bag for Hewlett-Packard going forward. We’ll keep a close eye on the company as it attempts to gain share within an increasingly competitive consumer and corporate marketplace.

Our two ChangeWave surveys are showing lightning fast-shifts occurring in PC demand, and conjure up the old Chinese proverb “May you live in interesting times.”

When it comes to the PC industry, the times are nothing if not interesting. Stay tuned.

Paul Carton co-wrote this article.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 10,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on the ChangeWave Alliance, or if you are interested in joining, please click here.

Comments

[Thomas A,Gaughan]

I wonder how Micheal Dell likes eating CROW. A friend of mine just purchased a new compaq laptop. She was really excited about her purchased. Until she just spent the last two days setting it up. The new vista software was a real disappoint. none of her accessories would work on it. Know she wish purchased a apple.

Thomas A. Gaughan

[EinRand]

I'll be buying my third Mac since 95' because with the exception of the fan wearing out on the first, none of them has broken down. I wish Apples were a little less expensive, yet as the old saying goes... 'If you're lucky - you get what you pay for.' For every extra dollar I paid, I estimate I've saved hours in troubleshooting, irrational OS navigating, and re-completion of lost work. I used to wish Jobs would liscense clones, but in the end the finished product of software and hardware dove tailing and plug-and-play is so ultimately worth a couple extra hundred especially if you were to pay yourself 5$/hr in troubleshooting time saved.

[Donkey]

What do you mean "will apple.."?? It's already happening.. It's been like that before iPhone was introduced.

Mac will dominate the world. Apple stores are so PACKED there are people, animals, and aliens EVERYWHERE! Last night I saw Luke Skywalker purchased 30 G5 Mac computer for his space ship.

Apple is what you need in your portfolio!

[MrWhite]

3 co-workers recently bought new PC's with Vista, all of them hated it, one wish they bought a Mac instead, but all of them downgraded to XP. And this seems to be on going trend with people, no matter how MS wants to spin the news, the truth is Vista was a 5 year, and millions of dollar waste of time. After showing the same co-workers a movie I made on my Mac, burned to DVD with animated menu's and all, they all plan on buying a Mac as soon as possible.

[Eric H...]

Why would anyone buy anything OTHER than a Mac? I mean, you can run Windows on the Mac either through virtualization, or directly with BootCamp. So when you buy a Mac you essentially get two computers in one (a Mac AND a Windows box). You'd be foolish not to buy a Mac if you are buying a new computer. Just my $0.02.

[beech_35]

I added more memory and installed a bigger HD, but I'm still using my eight year old iMac every day. It runs the latest version of OS X Tiger. Remember this is a computer that's older than Windows 2000. I've never had the slightest problem with it. Not one crash or hiccup, ever. No spyware etc. despite the fact it's always on and it's always connected. The only time I reboot is to install an OS update which happens every three or four months. Try that with anything from Dell or HPQ. It's not even true that Macs are more expensive either. Once you configure them feature for feature, they cost exactly the same as anything else.

[Governor]

I bought a 5 year old iMac G4 as my first Apple computer about 6 months ago; and the reason I did this was because I didn't need anything cutting edge; I only wanted to move my iTunes Library off my PC and use Apple for personal stuff (pictures, music, quicken, etc). I use a IBM/Lenovo T41 for work because I have to; otherwise I would buy a MacBook. The funny thing is that the G4 iMac works better than my WindowsXP machine, although the iMac is 4 years older. The technology and simplicity of Apple is simply winning everyone over. It is such a sad thing to watch people waste their time on Windows; but the simplicity and integrity of Apple (they don't advertise products that don't exist or unless it runs and works well) will simply pull it into high gear in the next 2 years. If you aren't vested now, then do it tomorrow. I bought a thousand shares of Apple 4 years ago at $11.00/share (adjusted). I did this not because I wanted to play the stock market, but because I believed that Apple had superior products and a superior strategy; and now the pedal is hitting the medal. I also predicted that Apple would be at $200 by xmas/new years, and all my friends chuckled. I chuckle my way to the BANK BABY! Now I think about selling, but I am realizing again that this is only the beginning. Apple will top the $10 billion mark for quarterly sales this quarter, just wait and see, for the first time ever. It will top 25 million iPods, and it will top 2.5 million macs sold. I predicted and made more investments because Apple has noticed how BIG the xmas quarter is and truly have lined themselves up for an ABSOLUTE KILLING this quarter. I am not kidding around here kids, this stock will frickin' fly past $230 when the results are shown on 17 Jan. The momentum that Apple has is unprecedented now and it will hit $300 around June. Look for 2008 to be a $40 billion year for Apple. You think 30-35% a year is fast growth, they will go 50% revenue growth in 2008, certainly in 2009. There is no doubt that this is the next technology company of the 21st century, MS was the company of the 20th century, but people are tired of being fooled and money is getting tighter, and time is more valuable, and Apple has the golden sceptre when it comes to reputation and word of mouth, which slaps marketing and advertising any day! Forget about the media and the analysts, they are all schmucks, because I've invested against their advice for the last 4 years and have done 1900% on my investment and I will retire in 4 years from now as a millionaire and serve the poor all on the BIG APPLE! Hallelujah! AMEN!

[cgibson911]

OK, so now that all the Appletonians have a platform to store their i-tunesit's time to hear from the "dark side." I just bought a new HP lap top with Vista Home Premium. I paid about $500 less than the comparable Apple lap top. I like Vista...haven't had any problems with it. I will give you this Apples products really look cool, but if you need to get your work done...there's no way it's worth the price premium it commands. I DO own Apple stock...just don't own their computers.