Seven Asset Classes To Keep You Ahead When the Shock Wears Off

I always say that I don't expect truly bad things to happen. I think a bear market is here, but I am expecting a normal bear market, the type we have easily survived many times before.

What if the everyone-in-the-shelter crowd turns out to be right? One reader referred to someone with a very good track record who says a U.S. apocalypse is already here.

Regardless of the fate of the U.S. capital markets, you still need the X-percent called for in your financial plan. If the U.S. somehow stops growing, it is a safe bet that, after the global shock wears off, other countries and asset classes will do just fine (think long term).

Here are some asset classes to think about.

Infrastructure

I am not talking about the road builders that Cramer favors. I mean things like publicly traded toll roads (there are a few around the world), parking garages (if there are any that are public), airports (there are some publicly traded airports in foreign markets), some of the Macquarie (MIC) funds - I have disclosed many times owning MIC going back two years - power grid listings, maybe even publicly traded exchanges (do you think a publicly traded exchange counts as infrastructure?), shipping ports (if there are any), and there are probably a couple of other ideas in the space. I would also ask if you think the plane leasing companies or shipping stocks count in this space.

These tend to have a low correlation to the U.S. market and kick off some yield.

Absolute Return

In the past I have written about certain OEFs that deliver absolute returns, I perceive the carry trade ETF (which I own) to be an absolute strategy. I would expect there to be more products to come. Additionally I have written about (mostly for RealMoney) pairing sector ETFs with inverse sector ETFs (obviously the indexes mimicked by each ETF would need to be different) but of course this would require trades to rebalance.

Usually absolute lives in its own world, and, while the returns can be high, I think high single digits is a better expectation.

Currency

If U.S. markets have a permanent breakdown, the dollar will get weaker. As a matter of necessity, U.S.-based investors would need some protection for the cash portion of the stocks/bonds/cash mix. I have been writing about this, and some of what I do to monitor the currency markets, and really learning more about this just makes sense, even given the more realistic probability that the U.S. will not spiral down.

I believe in currency exposure to different types of countries. Betting only on the "strong" currencies is, just that, a bet. At different times, different types of currencies lead. You can either bet which ones will lead, or maintain a diversified portfolio.

Commodities

I have never been a 20% commodity guy. Commodities are volatile. Volatility is not bad, but adding too much will be a problem at some point. Here again diversification matters. I would want some gold, some ag/soft, some industrial metal exposure and maybe some uranium. These markets are not quite as simple as Jimmy Rogers makes them out to be, but the basics can be learned.

Individual Countries (not EFA)

Regardless of what ever happens, I will never be a fan of a broad-based product like the EAFA Index Fund (EFA). If this crazy scenario ever plays out, as mentioned above, you still need your X percent, and to get it you will probably need to do more work than you do now.

I have written about various countries I favor now, with the understanding that the list will need to change over time. Pursuing this type of investing will require ongoing study. This may require the most work of any of these themes.

Foreign Fixed Income

The ETFs SPDR Series (BWX), which I own for a few clients, and PowerShares Global (PCY) are a start, but PCY owns dollar denominated paper, and there will be more. I would think that if things in our capital markets really deteriorate, it would become easier to buy individual issues from other countries: it now needs a minimum of $100,000 to place an order.

This is the kind of page from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's playbook.

Stuff

Maybe this part falls under commodities, but getting water and food to places that don't have enough seems like it would be a huge opportunity regardless of what happens in the U.S. All of the countries that are hot emerging or frontier markets are going to continue to modernize. The respective stock markets will go through normal cycles, but the infrastructure building out for water, food and anything else that improves life of an ascending economy will continue for quite a while.

Well that's a good start for now. Maybe this whips up some discussion.