Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Expected to Drop Composite 8% in 2008

Using the historical CME/Case-Shiller Median Home Price data and the CME Housing Futures that trade off of them, below we highlight charts of ten major cities with their expected 2008 price changes (% change from most recent actual data to the November 2008 futures contract). The blue lines are actual historical data points, while the red lines are the futures prices.

As shown, Miami home prices are expected to fall the most in 2008 at -14%. Miami is followed by Los Angeles (-12%) and Las Vegas (-9%). Chicago is expected to fall the least at -4%, while San Diego, San Fran, Denver and New York are all expected to fall 6%. The composite index of all 10 cities is expected to see declines of 8% in 2008.

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Comments

[Reinko:]

Begin November I made the above estimation myself but I used a somehow larger graph then shown above.

Just some simple linear calculation yielded over 10% decline next year (I think you better use a S&P Case Schiller housing index over the entire USA instead of this '10 composite'.)

From other sources it is known that total housing value is now something like 23 to 24 trillion so we are looking at 2.4 trillion damage at least for the year 2008.

Of course Secretary Paulson will keep on shouting 'The economy is strong' but that fool should keep his ugly mouth shut...

2007 Dec 17 01:52 PM

[Carl leason:]

I know that the graphs and sales downturn are for real, but my real question is what are the Banks and Mortgage originators going to be do forced to do to prevent this kind of BS in the future ? Undocumented mortgages,...what kind of insanity is that ? Let those bastards take the heat and the blame and the consequences ! This housing fiasco was caused by lenders and the Fed. MUST take a really drastic bunch of steps to prevent this from
happening in the future,...Placing the clamps on those jerks (lenders ) really tight is just a first requirement ! Then allowing those lenders to repackage and sell those junk portfolios to pension funds is simply criminal.LC

2007 Dec 18 06:41 PM

[Dogbert:]

I live in Miami, fortunately in a single family house, not a condominium. If Miami house prices are expected to decline 14 %, where there are many better paying large business community, What is the Prospects for a Cities like Ocala, Ft Meyers, or Bradenten with few service jobs? Should not the Price decline be much Larger, sine these towns depend on mostly retirees selling a house somewhere else in order to be able to move?

2007 Dec 20 04:44 PM