Seeking Alpha
Registered investment advisor, macro, ETF investing
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

The S&P 500's 50-day moving average is getting mighty close to crossing below its 200-day moving average, which is a big no-no for technicians. While the market did okay after the last time it happened in July 2006, the average returns following this 50/200-day negative cross aren't pretty.

click to enlarge

A 50-day cross below the S&P 500's 200-day has happened 36 times since 1940. The average change of the S&P 500 in the month following this cross has been -0.76%, while the average change over the next 3 months has been -0.01%. These numbers are very negative when taking into account that the average 1-month change during any period since 1940 has been 0.66% and the average 3-month change during any period has been +2%.

Source: Technical No-No: S&P 500's 50-DMA Close to Crossing Below Its 200-DMA