Do you like to follow earnings season? Although this earnings season is well underway, there are still many names that haven't yet reported their results. For a closer look at companies reporting next week, we ran a screen.
We began by screening next week's reporting companies for those with bearish sentiment, with float shorts above 10%. We then screened for those with a history of surprising the market with positive earnings reports, with an average earnings surprise of at least 20% over the last five quarterly reports.
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in market cap over the last two years for the stocks mentioned below. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
We also created a price-weighted index of the stocks mentioned below, and monitored the performance of the list relative to the S&P 500 index over the last month. To access a complete analysis of this list's recent performance, click here.
Do you think these stocks will surprise the market once again? Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.
List sorted by average quarterly earnings surprise over the last five quarters.
1. J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP): Operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico. Market cap at $7.25B, most recent closing price at $32.74. Float short at 17.21%. Earnings to be released on 05/15. In Apr 2011: Reported EPS at 0.3 vs. estimate at 0.24 (surprise of 25%). In Jul 2011: Reported EPS at 0.13 vs. estimate at 0.07 (surprise of 85.7%). In Oct 2011: Reported EPS at 0.11 vs. estimate at -0.12 (surprise of 191.7%). In Jan 2012: Reported 0.71 vs. estimate at 0.68 (surprise of 4.4%). [Average earnings surprise at 76.7%].
2. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB): Develops, operates, and franchises casual-dining restaurants in the United States and Canada. Market cap at $505.23M, most recent closing price at $34.26. Float short at 11.89%. Earnings to be released on 05/17. In Mar 2011: Reported EPS at 0.58 vs. estimate at 0.24 (surprise of 141.7%). In Jun 2011: Reported EPS at 0.48 vs. estimate at 0.36 (surprise of 33.3%). In Sep 2011: Reported EPS at 0.24 vs. estimate at 0.22 (surprise of 9.1%). In Dec 2011: Reported 0.28 vs. estimate at 0.2 (surprise of 40%). [Average earnings surprise at 56.03%].
3. ANN INC (ANN): Operates as a specialty retailer of women's apparel, shoes, and accessories primarily in the United States. Market cap at $1.28B, most recent closing price at $26.27. Float short at 10.61%. Earnings to be released on 05/18. In Mar 2011: Reported EPS at -0.52 vs. estimate at -0.58 (surprise of 10.3%). In Jun 2011: Reported EPS at -0.13 vs. estimate at -0.26 (surprise of 50%). In Sep 2011: Reported EPS at 1.15 vs. estimate at 1.08 (surprise of 6.5%). In Dec 2011: Reported 0.92 vs. estimate at 0.59 (surprise of 55.9%). [Average earnings surprise at 30.67%].
4. GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (GTAT): Provides polysilicon production technology and multicrystalline ingot growth systems, and related photovoltaic manufacturing services for the solar industry worldwide. Market cap at $724M, most recent closing price at $6.01. Float short at 15.12%. Earnings to be released on 05/16. In Mar 2011: Reported EPS at 0.41 vs. estimate at 0.34 (surprise of 20.6%). In Jun 2011: Reported EPS at 0.41 vs. estimate at 0.31 (surprise of 32.3%). In Sep 2011: Reported EPS at 0.29 vs. estimate at 0.25 (surprise of 16%). In Dec 2011: Reported 0.12 vs. estimate at 0.08 (surprise of 50%). [Average earnings surprise at 29.72%].
5. Saks Incorporated (SKS): Operates fashion retail stores in the United States. Market cap at $1.62B, most recent closing price at $10.11. Float short at 18.76%. Earnings to be released on 05/15. In Apr 2011: Reported EPS at 0.17 vs. estimate at 0.16 (surprise of 6.3%). In Jul 2011: Reported EPS at -0.05 vs. estimate at -0.09 (surprise of 44.4%). In Oct 2011: Reported EPS at 0.11 vs. estimate at 0.09 (surprise of 22.2%). In Jan 2012: Reported 0.17 vs. estimate at 0.14 (surprise of 21.4%). [Average earnings surprise at 23.58%].
*EPS data sourced from Yahoo! Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
