Could iPhone Become the Best Selling Smartphone on the Planet? 20 comments
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9to5mac.com rumors that it expects Apple to announce sales of 5 million iPhones at Macworld. If that's true, it would put Apple (AAPL) at half of its 2008 sales goal before 2008 even starts. It also means that despite Apple only selling one model of GSM iPhone in four countries with four carrier dedicated carriers, Apple's shipments in this quarter -- around 3.5 million -- will be very close to the 3.9 million Blackberry smartphones Research In Motion shipped in its most recent quarter across more than 100 carriers and 13 product lines (N.B. RIM's quarter ended Dec. 1, while Apple's will end Dec. 31, so the unit shipments are not precisely comparable, since RIM (RIMM) didn't count the holiday shopping season. On the other hand, consumer products only make up only a fraction of RIM's business too).
So what do I take away from this trend? If Apple actually will sell 5 million units by MacWorld AND it keeps up its aggressive deployments AND it makes no serious missteps with new products (like its 3G iPhone), the iPhone could pass the Blackberry to become the best-selling smartphone on the planet in 2008, and possibly the most rapidly adopted phone in the world. Not bad for an entry product in a market that most pundits claimed was impossible for a new manufacturer to enter.
Disclosure: Author is long AAPL.
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This article has 20 comments:
Thomas A. Gaughan
Lastly, I spent some time at Circuit City checking out Verizon's phones which are activated and can be used. I have an iPhone so I may be jaded but the competition is awful. I used the Curve which their little button to navigate their icons is awful. Their idea of the web is limited to Verizon. While it is fast, I want to do a bit more than surf the news, weather and sports scores. With the iPhone you can walk in a store and if you see a sales price, you can instantly check google or other merchants to see if the price is good or bad. Try that on any other phone.
The LG Voyager touchscreen is awful. You press (I mean press down) to hit a button and it vibrates to tell you it registered the press. That is so annoying. The iPhone you barely touch it and it works. Apple is light years ahead but most of the investment public (the New York analysts) all have blackberries and think they are the best phone ever. They think Apple's phone is a toy. Netsuite went public this week and the CEO while interviewed on CNBC says his product works great on the iPhone.
Why would anyone custom program an application for the blackberry when you could write it on the web for the internet and have it work on desktops, laptops, iPhones and sub notebooks (MacWorld). Rimm may be hot but lava is hot before it becomes a dead rock.
This article says Taiwan shipped 6.2 million smart handheld devices in the quarter, up 83% from a year ago. news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...
iPhones are manufactured in Taiwan so they'd be a portion of that 6.2 million total. They'd have to be a huge percentage of Taiwan's output to hit that 5.5 Million figure. Seems unlikely.
1. Bg company IT Departments are control freaks. They make the purchase decisions on hardware and they want to be in control. Fix the software so they can authorize and deauthorize users, shut down a stolen phone, etc.
2. Add some mail features to give them access to their Enterprise mail servers and push email (you can already get that with iPhone by using Yahoo Mail).
3. Give them the software. RIMM requires them to purchase expensive software.
4. Create an advertising campaign aimed at IT managers extolling both finacial and technological advantages of iPhone over RIMM.
Even if Apple doesn't do this I expect third party developers will jump at the opportunity after the SDK is released in February.
In my opinion the keyboard advantage for Blackberry is a non starter. Yes the Blackberry has a real keyboard. The keys are very tiny and very close together. I can't type any faster on that kind of keyboard than on an iPhone (my iPhone typing skills have improved dramatically after several months usage). The Blackberry keyboard takes up a lot of room on the phone. The display is much smaller than iPhone of necessity (to make room for the keyboard). So with a Blackberry you get about half as much display space in return for a keyboard that isn't necessarily any better than iPhone's touch screen keyboard.
Apple is feverishly OVER advertising the iPhoneflop here in the states because it REALLY ain't selling well (you don't over advertise when something is selling well, just ask any Advertising Prof.) and the iPhoneflop has BEEN a crashing Bomb in the UK, France and Germany so far with no hopes of any turn-around (why should there be at this late date?)
The Blackberry and like devices RULE business, and the texting nut juveniles; the iPhonePud is just that ... a glorified iPud and a piece of shit DUMB phone. Face it, or stay in denial.
Enjoy your Apple PR check, Hack writer. Merry Xmas from Stevie Gods.
For such a RIMM fanboy, you don't even have a clue about that company either. RIMM stated in their earnings report they would be focusing a lot more on marketing their phone to your average Joe. WHY WOULD THEY BE DOING THIS?
The answer is simple: APPLE....
But seriously, I like your arrogance. The Iphone won't sell merely because YOU don't like it......WOW.....
If you ever needed proof that the iPhone is a steamroller the simple stats from O2 say it all. On an inferior EDGE network, one that O2 itself admits barely covers the UK properly, 60% of customers with iPhones used more than 25Mb of data. iPhone data usage excludes any data used and moved on Wi-Fi. In contrast, 2% of non-iPhone customers did the same, including users of Nokia's 3G N95, the oft-vaunted closest pretender.
I just saw demos (native type) for 3 iPhone productivity applications for doctors that blew me away. Think something several times better than the iPhone Netflix application or the iTunes mobile store on iPhone. They'll be out between March and May. Developing for the iPhone is remarkably simple and flexible and sensibly designed websites work with no extra tweaking. You try develop for Nokia, Motorola or Samsung in Symbian or WM and see how much of a pain it is. I do not have Apple stock and I'm not iPhone obsessed. I just see opportunity where many people see obstacles.
On a recent tour of Africa for my company (I no longer work there...), I discovered 3G networks have been in place in some countries like South Africa and Egypt for 3 years and EDGE has been in place all over for several years before that, data connections are much cheaper than Europe and America, costing between 10c and 25c per MB versus $20/MB roaming on AT&T in some markets. Some cellphone companies offer multiple country local calling. I found a store in Nairobi taking in a "shipment" of 200 iPhones, all pre-sold, awaiting unlocking before dispatch to customers. The store started selling iPhones in late September and has done 20-30 such "orders" and it isn't the only one. Similar stories abound from Accra to Lagos to Cairo to Cape Town. iPhone detractors are clueless about the device's potential. If thousands of relatively worse off Africans, used to paying double the US or European price for Blackberries and Treos are buying iPhones and unlocking them... maybe Steve Jobs has just figured out the path to the internet for many people who were really frustrated with their phone options. All African countries have GSM networks, which are basically plug-and-play for handsets, unlike Verizon's. I was in Africa when Verizon made its opening up announcement and found the irony very amusing.
Just before people jump all over this forum with chauvunistic statements about Africa, the five largest networks there earned a combined $7billion in after-tax profits and have a combined market cap of $130 billion, not small change. A $200 8GB Gen 1 iPhone would sell millions in Africa, even 2 years from now. Just like many Americans ignored text messaging (and some still continue to be clueless about it by labeling it a teen fad), sometimes people don't realize the opportunity they have created.
iPhones in developing countries have very different uses from those in the G7. In a continent where people already send hundreds of millions by text message cash transfers, it's basically a sub $400 computer, functional even for the most academically challenged user, that can be hidden away from theft, charged from a small car battery and connect to the web anywhere with a cellphone network. It can bring market price displays to fresh produce markets, pictures of road conditions, allow injury assessments, allow fertilizer salespeople to travel from farm to farm taking accurate orders, transmit photo id for cash remittances, data capture for displaced persons in refugee camps, news accounts from remote places... i could go on and on but would start disclosing proprietary information. Basically, none of that youtube, facebook, google maps, stocks, iPod kind of stuff. The part of the iPhone that has value in Africa is the browser, the email app, the camera, voice recording and the cellphone connection.
Sometimes when people start a revolution, they don't know which way the wave will go.
Easy mistake to make. China is of the opinion, certainly, that they have already invaded Taiwan, as with Tibet and Mongolia.The US erroneously calls Taiwan part of China.
Its obvious to those of us (maybe 5 million?!) who have used an iPhone that this is the 'next big thing'.
Its useability is so far beyond the rest its just not funny.
I have had mine for 5 months now, and it has been as solid as a rock, despite my 3rd party apps etc. I might add that I am in Canada on Rogers, so no support - but who needs it?
I know that some people hate this, but: It Just Works!
I fully expect a 16 gig in January, which I will immediately buy, and I expect the next upgrade to include some seriously great apps.
RIMM is a good co., but no-one can live in a vacuum - which is how the cartel of phone makers has been behaving.
Sorry, boys, its time for a change!
As for the 5 million rumor - well why not?
If the Europeans use it, they will buy it.
Maybe not the UK, where they dont like change and have smaller disposable incomes, but Germany France and all the rest? They have big disposable income.
Dont EVER underestimate this remarkable phone - if I had to go back to a Razr or a Nokia, I would be VERY unhappy indeed.
5 million? I'll go for 4 million, with 12 million by end of 2008.
I'd be nice if you people would actually know what you are talking about, or at least RESEARCH IT ... thou that is certainly not a trait of all Mac Droid and Apple Kool Aid Drinkers ... just fabricate BS just like the Apple TV and print ads.
By the way, no one can or should trust ANY of Apple's claims of sales volume; Apple and Stevie Gods are known for lying about facts before - Had to Restate Income in 2005, Lies about the ILLEGAL Stock Options for Stevie in 2006, etc. etc. etc.
OK-- maybe I was mistaken. No need to get nasty. My preference would be a ban on trade wit China until they get human rights and environmental standards, but, unfortunately, our Govt. doesn't see things that way.