Housing Market Tracker - Macro Review

Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's part of Seeking Alpha's coverage of the real estate market and homebuilder stocks. Like all other topics and stock coverage from Seeking Alpha, you can have this sent to your Blackberry or desktop email by signing up for our no-spam free email subscription service.

Quote of the Day

"The unraveling of the region known as the Inland Empire reads like a 21st century version of "The Grapes of Wrath," John Steinbeck's novel about families driven from their lands by the Great Depression." - Reuters Reporter Dana Ford on the tent cities springing up around California as so many Americans lose their homes. (Reuters, Dec. 20th)

Macro Impact, And Will The Housing Slump Cause A Recession?

• Are We Having a Housing Crisis Déjà Vu? (Michael Panzner in Seeking Alpha, Dec. 24th): "Reuters: Between railroad tracks and beneath the roar of departing planes sits "tent city," a terminus for homeless people... in the once-booming suburbia of Southern California. The noisy, dusty camp sprang up in July with 20 residents and now numbers 200 people, including several children, growing as this region east of Los Angeles has been hit by the U.S. housing crisis... As more families throw in the towel and head to foreclosure here and across the nation, the social costs of collapse are adding up in the form of higher rates of homelessness, crime and even disease."

• AP: Credit Card Delinquencies Rising Sharply (Calculated Risk, Dec. 23rd): "The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26% to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4% of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America (BAC) and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart... Some of the nation's biggest lenders — including Advanta, GE Money Bank and HSBC — reported increases of 50% or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent [vs.] the same period a year ago."

• Sales of New Houses in U.S. Probably Fell: U.S. Economy Preview (Bloomberg, Dec. 23rd): "The risk that the real estate slowdown will spread through the entire economy is prompting business to rein in orders for new equipment... Housing starts are near a 14-year low and have fallen 48% since their January 2006 peak. Falling home construction has detracted from economic growth for the last seven quarters, and economists are expecting the drag to continue into 2008.Weak home construction is rippling across the economy, reducing demand for housing materials, appliances and furniture, while also weakening job growth as builders, mortgage companies and manufacturers reduce payrolls."

• Housing Downturn Nearing Bottom? (Builder Online, Dec. 22nd): "National Homebuilders Association chief economist David Seiders now estimates a 40% chance of recession where just a month or two ago he projected a 30% chance. Other economists project... a 60% chance that a recession will occur. Yet Seiders [notes] the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, for the last three months, has been sitting at its record low score of 19. The series began in 1985, and a score of 50 denotes equilibrium between positive and negative thinking by builders on sales conditions. Seiders suggests the stabilizing score, even at a record-low, is a sign of bottoming in new-home sales activity."

• Municipal Bonds Swoon With Worst Total U.S. Returns Since 1999 (Bloomberg, Dec. 19th): "Federal Reserve: Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GSC) and the rest of the securities industry reduced holdings of municipal bonds in their trading accounts by more than 16%, to $45 billion as of Sept. 30 from a record $53.9B at the end of June... The sales raised yields on municipal debt relative to Treasuries and increased financing costs for state and local governments planning bond sales by as much as $320 million through 2017... Securities firms are putting less into state and local debt after about $62 billion of writedowns on securities related to subprime mortgages. Barclays Capital estimates losses may increase by $200B."

Tracking the Housing Market and Homebuilder Stocks You can track developments in the housing market, homebuilder/housing stocks and review subprime news by bookmarking our Housing coverage or subscribing to our free email service. If you have a blog or website of your own, you can track developments in the sector and provide great content for your readers with our Housing Market widget (left). It's simple to add -- just select "Housing Market" from the drop-down menu here.

Comments

[Rocktex:]

I am so optimistic that I don't believe it is going to cause problems like the news described. The situation shall be fully controlled or contained. I believe it would make some discomfort, but not too serious in general macroeconomics. Those politicians should have the ability to discharge this small credit problem. See, Mr. B. B. has done a great job to the credit crunch. It shall be a piece of cake job for them to help people's survival. However it seems I mistrust some local politicians. Something could turn into ugly in some local areas.

I agree with Sawa that it is a local problem. But I disagree that it can't not be solved locally. NO, WE ARE NOT HOPELESS!

It's an emergency, we have to do a CPR job as a fire-engine people does. No time to put our energy in theory, let us do something to help survival and solve the miserables first. Timing is important since we can not sit and talk all day long until we find out ALL the facts as said by Mark Haroldsen.


All I care is do the right thing to effectively help people stay at his home and make a good return to a foundation shareholders.

Can we pool up our fund together as our ancestors put up their "Chit Fund" to help?

For a full detail, please read my article: A Funny World (17): Your Tent City? Or My Tear City? activerain.com/blogsvi...

2007 Dec 26 12:55 PM