Executives
Joe Reinhart – Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations
Analysts
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Mentor Graphics Corporation (MENT) Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Technology Conference Call May 9, 2012 6:30 PM ET
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Good afternoon everyone. I am Krish Sankar. And the next company presenting is Mentor Graphics and we have Joe Reinhart who is the VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations for Mentor is going to give presentation and then we are going to open it up for Q&A. With that, I'll let Joe take over. Joe?
Joe Reinhart
Thank you very much, Krish. First off, it's a pleasure to be here. I do need to forewarn everyone. Our fiscal quarter end ended last Monday, April 30, and we are tentatively scheduled to release our first quarter results on the morning of before market open on Friday, May 25. Official announcement likely to occur, typically, our practice is 8 to 10 days prior. So, as a result of the fact that we are between quarter end and release, I will defer any discussion of any near-term specific activities of financial issues and things of that sort, but hopefully, this will be a good productive session for everyone to talk about our business.
What I have is I pulled together since it's a shortened format a dozen or so slides. So, I'd be happy to walk through these. Of course, we have the prerequisite forward-looking disclosure statement, which I am sure all of you are familiar with and you'll be happy that I am not going to read it. What Mentor Graphics does is we are one of the big three suppliers of the technical design software to design virtually anything electronic from multi-billion transistor pieces of silicon semiconductors to printed circuit boards, and more uniquely compared to some of our peers, we are the number one supplier of system-level design solutions. Many of the aircrafts, many of the automobiles that we all fly on and drive use Mentor Graphics tools to do architectural layout of the electronics and the specific layout of the wiring systems and wire harnesses. Wide-body jet, be it the A380 or the Dreamliner has on the order of 200 miles of wire and cabling unit, a modern automobile with conventional internal combustion engine drivetrain has multiple miles of wire in it. So, it's pretty complex layout and actually many of the issues associated with the way laying that out are very similar to some of the multi-physics requirements and challenges that we also solve in the semiconductor world.
The market, the EDA market is very fragmented in terms of the vertical products served. The reason I show this slide, this market is on the order of $4.5 billion, but what you can see is that you are going to be one of the big players. You need to participate in the 10 or 12 largest high-load markets, many of which are silicon-oriented. The other major significant play is in the area of printed circuit board design, which you can see in this slide, Mentor Graphics is very strong in the fourth, fifth largest market is printed circuit board layout, where we have something just shy of 50% market share. You can see our other two major sizable competitor synopsis. They are the biggest in the marketplace and not surprisingly they happened to be in the three biggest markets. They are much more of a pure-play silicon oriented tool supplier, and then of course, the other participant in the segments and this market is Cadence Design, which I believe presented yesterday.
Mentor Graphics, we report our business in four different categories. So, when you do look at our press release and our financial statements, you see that we talk about integrated system design and in terms of the primary end output of that design activity that is printed circuit board design tools. Scalable Verification, which is the front end of the layout of silicon determining and defining the functional performance of the device and making sure that it performs in the logical fashion that you desire. This is an area where we participate with our emulation solution, which we sell hardware into the marketplace. We can probably talk a little bit about that during the Q&A.
IC Design to Silicon is the actual layout and implementation of the design on silicon and then the verification of the design, ascertaining that it is not violating any critical design or manufacturing oriented rules, so that the product, the device will perform when manufactured properly. And then Mentor compared to our peers is broader in terms of our participation in some new and emerging markets. In particular, things like transportation, I've already alluded to that and also serving the end market of transportation we are major meaningful supplier of embedded software. That at the bottom you can see the level of participation of these businesses, I would say that, having Scalable Verification and IC Design to Silicon at 70% is actually a larger number than what we typically see. This past year was a particularly strong year for our semiconductor-oriented business.
The other interesting thing is while 70% of our products are oriented towards silicon design activity about 50% of our customers are system-level customers. So, we sell a good deal of our semiconductor silicon-oriented design products into systems houses. And that's a unique capability for Mentor Graphics, because we sell to them the printed circuit board and the higher system-level solutions. As a result of that – and when I am talking about system houses I am thinking of somebody like a Honeywell or a Raytheon or a General Electric Corporation who while they are not a semiconductor company need to have semiconductor design tools to perform. And since we are already selling them conservable products and board and may be even wire and cable harness activities, it's a very logical unique selling proposition that we have and being able to bring solutions to them.
This is our view of the EDA industry. We are of the firm belief that segment leaders tend to gain share and others that are particularly those that are in third and fourth place tend to atrophy. It's that people using technical software can take little years to become proficient in, so you don't like to make change. So, those people that are really strong. Good example in the case of analog design, Cadence has had a franchise there for a decade. It's really tough to displace them. Likewise, Mentor has very similar positions in printed circuit board and in design rule verification and physical verification. Likewise, I think we have that same type of budding franchise within the transportation segment. We've done the good deal of studying. We see the profitability within the segment is driven by category size and not surprisingly you want to be in big categories. But even more importantly, profitability is driven by once market share.
And typically when you are in the market leadership position, you tend to slowly move towards and market shares in EDA moved rather glacially slow, but like glaciers, they typically don't change in reverse direction very quickly. You move glacially towards a market share of 70%, 75%. And then there is usually a naturally correcting effect where the end customers like to see some level of competition, but you are able to gain market share pretty nicely up to that level.
Would observe I think this past year has been an exceptional year for the industry, when I say you are talking about calendar year '11, but traditional EDA growth in silicon and in printed circuit boards is relatively modest, probably a little bit better than global GDP, where some – it's a reasonably mature market that we are serving that is microelectronics and that new spend is driven mostly by solving customers' problems that historically they never knew they had before. Good example is the design of photo mass. Once the – critical dimensions went below, the wavelength of light of 196, the complexity associated with deciding photo mass became far greater than what it used to be and in that we report this in the segment that we call resolution enhancement technology and 10 years ago it was next to nothing too. This year, it's a $200 million dollar plus market.
Our strategy is to focus on building number one positions. We spend considerably greater than 30% of our billion dollars in revenues on R&D. We don't try to be all things to everyone. We don't have an interest when the Merrill Lynch investment bankers come to sell us something. And I say well you don't have this in your portfolio. We don't necessarily want to be able to say that we can check every box and say we have everything what we want to do is to have the best-of-breed solution and frankly get paid dearly for that solution. I think we've been pretty disciplined in that regard. We do do some acquisitions, but they largely are oriented towards bolt-on acquisitions oriented to bolstering our number one position. And as I've mentioned in the area of transportation and embedded software, we do see CAM expanding Greenfield opportunities.
Here you can see the implementation of the strategy. Firstly, by recognizing the importance of being number one, but more importantly the fact that where we are walking the talk that we talk. And today, about 90% of our products are either number one or gaining share with a trajectory to become number one and that’s where we want to be.
Here is just a little graphic that gives you a sense of that over the last 15 years or so. And as I said, many of these products, as I said, it does take time for market shares to move, and in many instances, these products can take multiple years to develop. So, it is evolutionary not revolutionary like some other markets, but today we have 17 different product categories, where we see ourselves as the market leader, very important franchise to have both from serving your customers' perspective as well as in terms of enhancing the overall possibility of the company.
Frankly, the poster child for the industry of model of success, in the mid 90s, Mentor Graphics introduced a design rule checking physical verification capability called Calibre. In the mid 1990s, 1996, it was a $1 million, $2 million product. We've been able to expand Calibre with the better part of 15 other hang-on type products, some of which are much larger than the original product in terms of served market and Calibre is the franchise of the industry in terms of the NV and it's a $300 million business for us, a very powerful position to have. Semiconductor is very dependent upon the capabilities embedded within the Calibre product family.
Quickly talking about finances, we reported our fourth quarter results those are for the quarter ending January 31st of '12. We had revenues of $320 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.58. That was frankly nice leverage on an increment of $4 million picking up $0.08 in earnings per share shows you the type of leverage that’s available in the software company as it attains critical math. Speaking from memory, the full year operating margin on a non-GAAP basis was 16.5%. Strength, as I mentioned, has been very silicon-centric in this past year with solving and serving the need for the fabulous and foundry guides of the 28 and 20-nanometer level as well as the strong demand for our emulation product, which is reported within our Scalable Verification segment. And we've been very consistent in delivering results in the context of what we have promised discrete.
Full year basis, you can see we have had nice CAGR of 9% type of growth over the last four years. Last year was our first quarter exceeding $1 billion in revenues coming in at $1.15 billion, and on an earnings per share basis, we reported $1.13 for the full year. Again I am going to defer offering any type of guidance or commentary on outlook. It was provided on the 29th of February and we will certainly update it on May 25.
And then in conclusion, we, mentor, really was the pioneer we were the first public EDA company. We have a very diversified global customer base. We have about 12,000 active customers around the world. Vast majority of those are system level of customers represent wonderful franchise to continue to sell more product to as we expand our capabilities. We expect that we'll be able to continue to grow faster than the underlying traditional EDA market, which as I said C as being something a little bit better than global GDP.
And we are committed to enhancing shareholder value. We are targeting 20% non-GAAP operating margin. In the past year – fiscal year '12, we bought back $90 million of stock and we expect to buyback another $100 million over the next two years, so balanced use of our cash in our capital.
With that Krish, I’ll be happy to take any questions from you or anyone else or whatever the protocol is.
Question-and-Answer Session
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Joe, appreciate the presentation. Let me start out a couple of questions. I mean, I understand you guys on the quiet period, but you know like, earlier you guys gave a full year fiscal year '13 growth forecast and then the 8% to 9% range of the top line. I am trying to get a sense of where that the top line growth is going to come from? Is it in your new products, emerging products, support system, yeah, if you can give some color on where that growth is coming from?
Joe Reinhart
Well, again I am going to – I do not want to be in the position of two weeks before releasing numbers ratifying what I would consider stale numbers that was released on February 29? But first off, if I see no reason why the bulk of our business does not continue to grow at the – at the rate that we see traditional EDA growing up, which is probably on the order of depending on at the last year, we certainly – the industry had a strong tailwind, but its probably about a 6% grower if I had to pick one point number. And I think we actually grow a little bit faster, because I think if you look at our market shares, we have more headroom to grow before we bump up against that 75% type share, which is a kind of a natural correcting zone so and in particular in the printed circuit board space, which is classic traditional EDA. But I think we can grow a little quicker, because I think we are going twice as big as our nearest competitor.
And then the other thing is we have last year it was 10%, but it's often been 15%, 15% of our business in transportation and embedded software and in both of those categories we have seen solid double-digit growth. And so if you have and I am talking about something that is amply in the teens and routinely in the 20s, so if you put 10% or 15% of your business with that type of growth trajectory with 80% of your business at a 6% trajectory, it's pretty simple math to yourself in this 8% to 10% range.
The other thing is the space of emulation, which is hardware-assist simulation of circuitry, which traditionally was used by the major microprocessor and GPU manufacturer, so very finite universe. Simulation basically is on workstations is running out of gas. And as a result of that, the industry is turning towards this high-performance hardware-assist. And there are three players in emulation, Mentor Graphics, Cadence, and a French company called (indiscernible). We are number two in that market. We've seen very strong growth. We expect to – we've seen very strong market share gain. I believe we will have the opportunity to gain market share further, but what we have also seen is a rising tide environment that's benefited everyone. And that is the system on the chip, the communication chips and other chips that traditionally did not have the complexity associated with them are becoming evermore complex and people are using emulation to try to rude out before one commits to the design to silicon potential problems. And so what was probably a $80 million to $100 million market in '08 is I think north of $200 million today and likely to grow. So, with that all of said, you can make whatever your underlying assumptions are, but it gives me pretty good comfort that we can obtain those type of long-term growth rate.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
On the emulations, and just to that question, do you think most of the growth going forward is going to come from your new product Veloce 2 or is that just a traditional emulation market growing itself?
Joe Reinhart
We have customers buying both of the solutions today, but clearly it is hardware. So, people want the through bread of today, and so Veloce 2 is very important. And I would expect that Veloce 2 will be the bulk of our business going forward and the issuance, it gives us a meaningful competitive advantage both its performance, its energy utilization, which by the way, these emulation systems are the size of the small conference room. So, they require considerable HVAC and air-handling and power into them. So, often, the solution, the desire is you want to get the fastest ray source, but you then need to make sure that you can put the ray source often in the facility that you have already had and if it turns out that the ray source is going to require four times more energy. Dies this mean that you need to bring in additional power from the utility? Of course this needs to be ultra-clean, pure power and things like that. And what we found is a lot of the ancillary issues associated with the Veloce 2 as being much more plug and play compatible is an important advantage as we compete in the marketplace.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Yeah. And then clearly lot of the stories for Mentor from a stock standpoint as being the operating margin expansion and I mean you guys have a target to get about 20% in the next couple of years. The question I had was that's a scenario, where exactly the growth rate for EDA or your revenue growth rate slows, because of whatever macro – whatever it is, what are the levels we have that you can pull low the cost?
Joe Reinhart
Well, the issue is this, yeah, as you can see in the business, we grew our business from 900 and a little bit better than 900 million to 1.15 billion and we expanded our profitability from $0.70 to $1.13. So, there is a lot of leverage in the business. And the issue is we have invested in product and in global infrastructure to be able to get this leverage. The beauty is whether it's more automotive platforms at Tata or at Hyundai or more aircraft platforms at Bombardier or Embraer or at EADS, we don’t have to put those same – the same infrastructure in Mumbai or in Tucson, Korea or in (indiscernible), France.
If we get more platforms out of Hyundai, you may have to add incrementally one or two people on top of a base of an office in that location. So, there is a lot of leverage. If you don’t get the business, you don’t have to add that. And so now if it turns out the things really slow, then you look at expenses, but we feel – we view ourselves as very much in the mode of where we are knocking on the doors of harvest and I think we've already very demonstrated that we are harvesting what has been a very thoughtful and very successful investment plan over the last half dozen or so years.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
And then from the standpoint of clearly like foundries that is one of your big customer base and there has been lot of talk about how they see challenges or like production outputs of the foundries at 20 nanometers. Do you feel like those yield challenges or all of the issues that are happening in the foundries actually slows the adoption of design or EDA?
Joe Reinhart
Again, right now, there is a lot of news about people being on allocation are not getting the quantity of parts and all that they want. It's pretty remarkable. I come out of semiconductor equipment – capital equipment is pretty remarkable of that how quickly those things get solved, but the one thing I think had benefited us and benefited us that last year and even into this year is if you think of the investment by the four or five big foundries, TSMC, Samsung, I even include Intel in there, IBM, even global foundries. It's almost like a thermonuclear arms race. And they spent $50 billion in the course of about 18 months to be at 28 and 22 nanometers.
Well, after you've done all that, then you have all the fabulous guys having their own little, it's not thermonuclear, but it's more an atomic arms race, where they are trying to be the first to have new communication switch products and Ethernet and all another types of products that are taking advantage of being able to be manufactured at 28 or 22. That's really good for design tool software. And I think Mentor, especially when it comes to being in the back end being strongest in the back end of silicon design is very well positioned. Possibly if there is challenges they may even solve the solution with more horsepower, but I just think what's occurred with this huge investment in the capital to produce it, you'd be full hearty to then not fall through with the investment and product development, because it's subtraction of what the capital that was invested.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Then from a industry consolidation standpoint, obviously with Lava and Synopsis, like to know your thoughts around, has it incrementally benefited you guys or is it a feel that (iragnostic) to that overall merger there and what are your thoughts under general industry consolidation?
Joe Reinhart
Well, it's still really early, because people don’t make from a financial revenue perspective design tool selections in a hasty manner, but there are number of semiconductor customers out there and Magma and merger with Synopsis is purely silicon-centric event. A number of semiconductor customers out there who have had Magma as their second source. And in some instances, their first source was Synopsis. For very good reasons, people believe that second source is good. By definition, if that is the scenario, where Magma was second source, it creates opportunities for the other vendors, because as I said, for lots of very good reasons, dependents for leverage and negotiating purposes, and just in case somebody’s tools fails, you need to have someone else's solution in-house? And I think as a result of that the merger will be beneficial for on the industry, but it's still also you have to understand Magma was 2.5% market share. So, it’s not like it’s a big moving piece.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
And have you seen, it means – it's almost been like a few months since the merger is closed, have you seen any share changes?
Joe Reinhart
I mean, I just say, but still it's only been a few months, but I mean if you have to understand that the people that make these tool decisions, I mean there is – this isn’t just a three-year contract decision, it's basically generational. So, they are very, very thoughtful about it. Now, I think what – it was pretty it is routine that they have bakeoffs and runoffs as a meaningful fabulous semiconductor companies], we'll have four and five design teams and they are going through different stages of development and they are looking at tools and things like that. I think what this means is what was often a – the answer was still known, but we are going to go through a bakeoff. Now, I think there is a more opportunity that it's going to be a real choice as to well, what do we want to do and I think there is a strong reason that the industry has had a concept of second sources.
Unidentified Analyst
Let's see. I guess I am interested in your perspective on the broader semiconductor customer base of design ecosystem. Obviously, there is consolidation on the production side to a couple of fear factors. On the design side, are we going to see major consolidation on design, between the fabulous guides just in terms of design capabilities or do you see something else?
Joe Reinhart
I don’t know that I have – that I should be somebody that you should rely on, but I will offer one observation and that is our Chairman, Wally Rhines who was very senior at TI and really I'll enjoy spending time with Wally, because he is a student of the industry. He has some slides to talk about consolidation within the semiconductor industry. And remarkably, there has been very little consolidation. And you can go back into the 60s, you can go back into the 70s and the 80s, and what you see is an evolution of who the leaders are? But I mean you had the likes of national semi being a top of five company and very dominant and TI being a much more dominant player in all that. So, the names change and who is the leader, but in many respects in terms of true concentration, it hasn’t concentrated as much as you might think. And I think we are going to continue to see this specialization of fabulous versus foundry and all that. I think that's – and my boss used to work for Wally at TI and that was back when TI made their own capital equipment. And so what you are seeing is continued specialization, thankfully after they got out of the capital equipment business, they got out of the proprietary design tool business that created the EDA industry. And I think that you are going to see that continued activity, but it just seems like the entrepreneurial spirit and the innovation, there is still always a need for people to start up and do things and every once a while they can get pretty darn big.
Unidentified Analyst
Our full disclosure works to Krish and I am based in Asia, so I wondered if you could provide some comments on what you are seeing in China right there. There are often coming companies with big deign teams, in some of your slides, you talked about segments, but I didn't see really anything on the regions, are you seeing capabilities on design improvement in the China market?
Joe Reinhart
Our presence, we have a meaningful presence in silicon in China, but for us the system level business overshadows. And I think the China’s semiconductor industry is still defining itself. But you have to understand. We are selling to four of the five largest automotive OEMs in China. There are as many automotive OEMs in China today as there were in the United States in the 1920s. We – there are – China produces and buys more automobiles than any other country in the world. China is developing their own aircraft industry. China is going to be a great opportunity for Mentor Graphics.
Unidentified Analyst
When you look at the semiconductor industry longer term, if you look at the different trends that are coming up 450-millimeter TSV, EUV, can you talk about how that impacts EDA design and what is the opportunity for you guys in this?
Joe Reinhart
I was around. I see you have the (Cymer), little folder there. I was around when we went from 250-micron to sub-196 and all that. I mean, yeah, all of that and EUV is going to be very interesting, but I still think to lay the way. We have learned to live with (Maurice Law). We are really what you are talking about is Maurice not going to change or is it going to accelerate or whatever, but we live with it. And the big three EDA companies are the enabler from Maurice Law. And so I don't – it maybe something that's a little new or a new angle or a new twist, but that's the environment we live in, that's why we spent 30% of our revenues on R&D. This is – these are not simple problems that we are solving.
Unidentified Analyst
Yeah, thank you. Couple of questions. First of all, can you talk about the 20-nanometer design rules, I mean, how many design stocks are you seeing at this point, at this geometry, and maybe if you can compare that with 28 nanometers and maybe what you saw at 45, just to give us an idea of the magnitude of the adoption of 20 nanometers and perhaps when you see that into volume production?
Joe Reinhart
I can't. I would encourage you to talk to these two gentlemen. I mean, it is a level of depth and specialization that is beyond my skill and it's probably even – there is probably a couple of people within Mentor that would have, what I would view as a useful perspective, but that's a really – that's a tough question and as an IR dude that's beyond me.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
And then you talk about selling your EDA system software to – sorry, your EDA software to a system companies, can you maybe talk about the vertical that you address with this product offering. What I was thinking about is the mobile phone and perhaps telecom equipment companies, because we start to see more and more of the chip design. I wouldn't say going to the system companies, but certainly the system companies are starting to develop the ownerships, and I mean, Broadcom's CEO was talking about how ARM has lowered the entry for the system guys?
Joe Reinhart
Absolutely, great question. I can address that. So, I am glad you asked that question. Last slide, 70% of our revenues come from silicon products, only 50% of our customers are semiconductor companies and the – clearly the mobile communication smartphone tablet players and there is a couple of them very close by to hear that are firstly software companies and then secondly much more semiconductor oriented, because that's how they differentiate themselves whether it's for signal integrity, whether it's for power management, whether it's for features, all of that is becoming much, much more important and that's why we've seen that 20% of our revenues are coming from somebody you kind of scratch your head, why would they be buying that? And they are doing it because they want to differentiate themselves and by being further up in the design guts, it gives them the ability to do that.
And the other thing that we are seeing is many of our customers whether it's a white goods manufacturer, in Europe, Bosch makes a very high-end series of white goods. They increasingly whether it's automotive, whether it's white goods, or other applications, they were interested in having the same intuitive user interface that we have with our Apple products in the kitchen or in the automobile. And they know that they are neither electronics people or software people. So, they are turning to the likes of a Mentor Graphics who really – because of the issuance as you can have your range operate the way your personal computer does, where one out of 200 times you end up with the blue screen. And you have to unplug it and take the battery out. It's got to work as reliability as the ignition system in the automobile. And so that says you got to build rock – bullet solid software.
And we think that we particularly bringing the discipline associated with making a piece of silicon that has multiple billions of transistors in it, you don't make it with the objective of getting it close and then I'll fix it after I have designed that you make it, so that works first path. And you got to have that same mentally in the way you design software. So, that served us very well. But I do think, yeah, there is a lot more system level people looking at the silicon solution, and clearly, the people down the road are very, very active in that. And other people are trying to emulate. There is another company down the road, that’s in the business of operating systems and just bought themselves a cell phone company.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Alright. Maybe just on this, I mean, I was going to squeeze in one last question, any updates on the – shareholder activist front, you guys had like two new board appointments?
Joe Reinhart
Well, we have a shareholder meeting coming up May 30 and the board on behalf of the company has recommended a 8-person Board of Directors slate. And on that 8-person are two new directors and two other previous directors that were on the board were not re-nominated by the board. And that’s where we are, we are going to have the shareholder meeting on May 30.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Alright, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Joe Reinhart
Krish, I appreciate it. Thank you.
Krish Sankar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thank you very much.
Joe Reinhart
Thank you everyone for coming. Have a great summer.
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