Leaving Frontier for the Time Being
-
Font Size:
I am closing the remaining refining play in the portfolio, Frontier Oil (FTO)
with a total loss of about 1.1%. I've owned it since August 6th, 2007.
So essentially this has been a lot of dead money. Of all the refiners,
this one remains far and away my favorite as Frontier has shown an ability to make money in a very difficult environment [More Refining News]
but with some additions of late the portfolio is getting more names
than my target so in reviewing what should go, I decided on this name.
Refiners
are not my typical cup of tea (much more cyclical than secular growth)
but a few times a year they are generally good for a nice solid run.
But we haven't seen one in a long while - even an upturn in crack spreads has done nothing for these stocks.... very very strange.
The
technicals in this stock give a very easy roadmap, so by selling the
position and waiting for a breakout, I can conserve cash or apply it
elsewhere, long or short. Simply put, we want to see Frontier Oil
break back above its 50 day moving average, currently $43 (and
falling), and then we have the potential for this good move. The stock
has been 'basing' in a narrow range for 3 weeks so this could happen at
any moment (or not happen at all). But with crack spreads rising, you'd
think the stock would reflect this sooner rather than later.
So this might be a temporary exit, as we await the stock chart to firm up. I had lowered my exposure to Frontier Oil
to 1.2% of the fund and am selling all 350 shares @ $41.75. I'd gladly
pay $43+ when the appropriate time comes. Much like the deep sea oil
drillers, I have been in and out of these stocks during the life of the
fund, getting nowhere fast - but of course the deep sea oil drillers
finally took off once I had sold out my exposure. Hopefully the same
will not happen here - I will keep a close eye out. If crude falls in
2008, profit margins should expand meaningfully in this space and
perhaps we get "the run" then....
Disclosure: No position
- Peabody Energy Corp. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript »
- ConocoPhillips Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript »
- Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.F3Q08 (Qtr. End 06/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript »
- Peabody Energy: Stellar Results, If Anyone Cares »
- Nabors Industries Ltd. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript »
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
-
Editor's Picks
-
Most Popular
- A Long Housing Boom Won't Yield to a Brief Recovery
- Why Congress Blames Index Speculators
- What Are the Prospects for Stagflation?
- State Street Launches 10 Ex-U.S. Sector ETFs
- Eisai Victorious Over Teva and Dr. Reddy’s in Aciphex Compound Patent Case
- Financials Future Still Uncertain
- Full list of Editor's Picks »
- As WaMu, Wachovia Ready Earnings, Comparisons to Wells, USB Are Telling »
- Apple F3Q08 (Qtr End 6/28/08) Earnings Call Transcript »
- Three Stocks To Be Held To Infinity and Beyond »
- Crazy Dividends »
- Apple Investors Nervous as Earnings Call Approaches »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Historic Financial Collapse Underway? »
- Mother of All Short Squeezes? »
- China Poised to Pounce on U.S. Coal Suppliers »
- Is Natural Gas Down for the Count? »
- Barron's Goes Bullish on Banks, Again »
-
Long Ideas
-
Short Ideas
-
Cramer's Picks
- Terex: Overlooked Bargain
- EBay is a Not Com – Cramer’s Lightning Round (7/23/08)
- Buy Costco, Get Sirius -- Cramer’s Stop Trading! (7/23/08)
- Intuitive Surgical's Q2: A Lesson in Errors of Perception
- Chevron: Good Choice for Conservative Growth Investor
- Pfizer Beats: Recommended at or Below $18
- Illumini, Intuitive: This Healthcare Outperformance Brought to You by the Letter 'I'
- Cynosure: Growth Expected as Sales Go Global
- More Bad News for the Anti-Ethanol Crowd
- Financial Focus - Fast Money Recap (7/22/08)
- Full list of Long Ideas »
- Get True Religion - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/22/08)
- Principal Financial Group Vulnerable to Commercial Real Estate Softening?
- Increases in Shorting, Only for Some
- Is a Ban on Short Financial ETFs on the Horizon?
- Is There a More Efficient Shorting Tactic?
- Short Oil as a Long Investment
- Ford's Financial Services Business About to Enter the Red
- Educational and Training Services Are An Excellent Short Opportunity
- Short Selling: Others Want Protection Too
- The SEC's Campaign Against Naked Shorting: Misguided or Right On?
- Full list of Short Ideas »
- EBay is a Not Com – Cramer’s Lightning Round (7/23/08)
- Buy Costco, Get Sirius -- Cramer’s Stop Trading! (7/23/08)
- Soup Target; Cramer's Mad Money (7/22/08)
- Get True Religion - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/22/08)
- Copper Down Low - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/22/08)
- Banks Hit Bottom – Cramer’s Mad Money (7/21/08)
- Ends In X - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/21/08)
- Great American Companies – Cramer’s Lightning Round (7/21/08)
- Market Rotation Bolsters Financials - Fast Money Recap (7/18/08)
- For Everything, Wind - Stop Trading! (7/17/08)
- Full list of Cramers Picks »
Most Popular Feeds
-
ETFs
-
US Market
-
Long Ideas
-
Alt. Energy
- Full list of feeds »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers:
- Search jobs by category
- Get job alerts by email or live feed
- Apply online
Employers
- See all recruitment options
- Get applications online or by email


