Housing Market Tracker - Home Sales/Prices Review

Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's part of Seeking Alpha's coverage of the real estate market and homebuilder stocks. Like all other topics and stock coverage from Seeking Alpha, you can have this sent to your Blackberry or desktop email by signing up for our no-spam free email subscription service.

Quote of the Day

"Once we are through absorbing the excess inventory, the supply that's in the marketplace, we will go back to doing good business." Robert Toll, CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (Bloomberg, Dec. 31st)

Real Estate Sales and House Prices

• U.S. November Existing-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise (Bloomberg, Dec. 31st): "National Association of Realtors: Sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose... 0.4% in November to an annual rate of 5 million from a 4.98 million pace in October. Home resales were forecast to hold at 4.97 million... Sales were down 20% from November 2006 and the median home price fell 3.3% to $210,200 [from] November 2006... Home sales were down 31% from their July 2005 peak. The number of homes for sale [by November 30th] fell 3.6% to 4.27 million. At the current sales pace, that represented 10.3 months' supply, compared with 10.7 months in October."

• Why are New Home Sales Plunging? (Trader Mark in Seeking Alpha, Dec. 31st): "Until prices come down to a level where people with 5-20% down, 6% fixed rated, making normal American incomes can afford, we are nowhere near a bottom. The only good thing... is that new home starts are finally slowing, and home builders in desperate attempts to see a cash flow, have slashed new home prices. We now are going to face an almost comical dichotomy in some markets - new homes selling for 30% below existing homes. It's already happening in some spots in southern California. This just means that existing home sellers are still in the denial stage and think they can get 2005/2006 prices. This is why your 'median' prices are not falling."

• Housing Market Down But Not Out (Press Connects, Dec. 31st): "New York State Association of Realtors: Sales of existing single-family homes in New York state slowed in November to [pre-boom] 1999 levels... The 6,700 homes sold statewide represented a 16.4% decrease from November 2006 (8,021). In November 2005, 9,058 homes were sold state-wide. Elmira-Corning Board of Realtors: Sales of single-family existing homes in Chemung County fell 26%, from 69 homes in November 2006 to 51 units 12 months later... Steuben County [declined] from 92 homes in November 2006 to 55 homes in November 2007, a 40.2% drop. Schuyler County registered an increase of 27.3%, from 11 homes in November 2006 to 14 in November 2007."

• Home Prices Slip Sliding Away (Tampa Bay Online, Dec. 31st): "Tampa Bay area's once red-hot real estate market continued to cool this year, even exceeding some economists' gloomiest predictions. During the housing boom, Bay area home prices skyrocketed nearly 140%, with the average home price peaking at $237,800 in August 2006. They held steady during most of 2006, when prices were falling in other parts of the country... The Tampa metro area posted an 11.1% yearlong decrease in home prices during September - the worst in the nation. In October, the most recent month for which data were available, the median price for existing, single-family homes fell to $222,100, an 8% drop from October 2006."

• Housing Problems On Everyone's Mind In 2007 (Lompoc Record, Dec. 31st): "California Association of Realtors November data: The median-priced home in Santa Barbara County cost $673,080, [that's] down 9.3% from October but up 31.3% from $512,500 in November 2006... County sales fell 4.9% from October's level and 34.7% from November 2006. San Luis Obispo County median-priced homes cost $454,840... That's down 17.1% from October and 14.6% from November 2006 ($532,890)... San Luis Obispo County sales fell 17.7% from October's level and 28.7% from November 2006... Construction Industry Research Board: In San Luis Obispo County, 999 building permits were issued YTD November, down 31.6% from the 1,461 permits issued during the same period in 2006."

• Buying 2nd Home In A Volatile Market (North Jersey.com, Dec. 30th): "Homes in Miami and Tampa had the greatest year-over-year price drops at 10% and 11.1%, respectively. San Diego followed closely, with a 9.6% fall in prices, and Las Vegas saw a 9% decline, its highest annual drop on record. Florida Association of Realtors: Even perennially popular second-home markets are vulnerable to downturns. For example, in Sarasota, Fla., where homes appreciated 150% between 2000-2005, median prices have fallen 29% in the past two years. Other areas have been only marginally affected by the slump. In most places on the Jersey Shore, home prices are continuing to rise, though properties are staying on the market longer than usual."

• Andrew Brod: Real Estate Slump Continues, But Triad Hurting Less Than Others (News Record, Dec. 30th) North Carolina: "In Q3'07, existing home sales in the Triad were 8% lower than a year earlier, and the inventory of unsold homes rose to equal nine months of sales. The average home price increased slightly in the third quarter, but it didn't quite keep up with overall inflation. On the other hand, homes are still relatively affordable in the Triad, with HOI values of 67% in the Greensboro-High Point metro area and 73% in Winston-Salem."

• New One Family Home Sales: Ugly! (Barry Ritholtz in Seeking Alpha, Dec. 29th): "Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007... were 647,000... This is down 9% from October's levels. Y/o/y, November '07 new-home sales were 34.4% lower than November 2006... New Home Sales... do not reflect canceled contracts... Cancellation rates have been running as high as 40%... The monthly drop of 9.0% is below the Census Bureau's ±13.9%* confidence interval. When the reported data point includes zero (as it does in this instance), then the Census [indicates] the monthly data is not meaningful. As to the y/o/y change of 34.4%, the confidence interval of ±7.9% does not include zero, [meaning] an actual statistical change occurred."

• Sales of New Homes Worse Than Expected (Yahoo! Finance, Dec. 29th): "New-home sales tumbled 9% in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 647,000, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was the worst sales pace since April 1995... Many economists were predicting sales to decline by 1.8% to a pace of 715,000... In the Midwest, new-home sales plunged 27.6% in November from October. Sales dropped 19.3% in the Northeast and fell 6.4% in the South. In the West, sales rose 4%.Over the last 12 months, new-home sales nationwide have tumbled by 34.4%... The median sales price of a new home dipped to $239,100 in November. That is 0.4% lower than a year ago."

• Home Sales Drop 20% And Prices Slip In Illinois With Modest Price Gain In Chicago (Chicago Tribune, Dec. 28th): "Illinois Association of Realtors: Statewide, the median sale price was $193,000 for the month, down 3% from $199,000 a year ago, with a 20% drop in sales from last November. In November the median home sale price in the Chicago area was $247,000, up 0.8% from $245,000 in November 2006, but the number of sales dropped nearly 24%... The statewide average home sale price in November was $253,131, up 1.3% from $249,799 a year ago. The average home sale price for the Chicago PMSA was $323,458, up 4.4% from $309,832 in November 2006."

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