Monster's Index Shows Job Weakness

Monster.com (MNST) reports that its Monster Employment Index of online recruitment advertising fell 14 points in December, to 169, reflecting not only seasonal factors but also what the company calls “further moderation in U.S. online recruitment activity.”

Monster says that lower demand for office and administration workers suggests “slower corporate expansion may lie ahead.” The company says an “unusual drop in demand for sales opportunities” suggests retailers are still cautions about hiring. Monster said jobs offerings in the financial sector remained “muted” in the wake of the subprime mortgage fallout. Monster says that in December, “nearly all of the 20 industries and 23 occupational categories tracked registered lower online job availability.”

American Technology Research analyst Tim Boyd says the one-month drop was the largest decline in the history of the index by a wide margin. In response, he cut his price target on Monster to $35 from $45; he maintains his Neutral rating on the shares. Boyd did not cut estimates, but he does say that “consensus 2008 estimates may be at rish givne the deceleration in online recruitment activity.”

One other thing: Trim Tabs Investment Research asserted today that the U.S. economy added zero jobs in December, and that “a consumer recession has already begun.” Charlie Biderman, who runs Trim Tabs (and who once upon a time worked at Barron’s) says jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are inaccurate. He says that based on tax withholding data, “the U.S. economy added no jobs in December and an anemic 49,000 jobs in October and November combined.”

Trim Tabs says its own online job postings index fell 7.9% in December and 11.4% in the fourth quarter. Biderman says that consumer spendable cash - after-tax wage income, net equity extraction from real estate and tax refunds - will be down 4% in the first quarter versus a year ago. And he says a consumer recession “means that stock prices are likely to suffer more losses early this year.”

Monster.com Thursday is down $2.07, or 6.5%, to $29.56.

Comments

[AnnCatherineCHt]

Three points in reference to your article:
First, corporations now seek to hire through temp or contract agencies for many reasons - namely because it increases overall cost efficiency to have someone evaluated, checked out, etc., before allowing them to come on board and ultimately waste time and resources otherwise.
Second, sites like Monster, Careerbuilder, etc., have an extreme influx of spammers targeting job-seekers adn college students soon to be entering the job pool. The majority of jobs we now see listed online at sites like Monster.com are not legitimate jobs. Pop into either site for a moment and you'll see what I mean...
And finally third, I do agree with you and also believe there has been a decrease in administrative/office jobs, indicating a corporate revenue rut. Currently, a corporation will, instead of hiring a qualified secretary or accounting person at $13-$15 per hour (or more), an unskilled person is hired, trained, appreciative of the opportunity, and paid $7 or $8 per hour.

My last thought: One would think if corporations are suffering from lack of desired revenue, they'd eventually put a few more bucks back into the economy for people to spend by paying employees decent wages!