Handicapping the ETF Issuers

If you have not already, go through Matt's league table blog and the newly released ETF Watch. Great data. Here's what I take away from it.

Definitely the most interesting thing to look at are the product issuer assets and growth. First of all, the ETF industry is a rocket ship. Next, when things are moving so fast, it's sometimes easy to lose track of some very interesting things going on. Here are my top takeaways from the data, product issuer by product issuer.

Holy cow - look at Van Eck! They pulled in nearly $3 billion in assets - almost as much as Wisdom Tree. It MUST be that hardassetsinvestor.com Web site we do for them. All I can say is - wow. That is a smart operation. Nimble. Very well targeted products. The question is going to be whether the space for their niche products will still be there in the future or whether they're going to need to build some distribution instead of going mainly with the "build it and they will come" model.

State Street. Up $60 billion! For the record, the bulk of that owes itself to the insane inflows of SPY, which sat at over $100 billion at year's end! I didn't go in that data, but it feels to me like $40 or $50 billion of that growth was SPY creations. And a majority of the rest, I assume goes to the Select Sector SPDRs. All that said, SSgA DID come out with some very strong inflows on new funds like the global real estate, and they launch a lot of very very cool products that I really think broke some new ground for the big 4, particularly in terms of some of the international region, size and style offerings. But SSgA is really Exhibit A in terms of the wacky mega flows going on with some of these ETFs. iShares would be Exhibit B with the insanity in IWM at Russell 2000 rebalance time this year.

Rydex. Look at them go. They do very little marketing (though what they do - I receive it - is good stuff), but they continue to grow...up a couple billion to $5.5 billion. You can't help but believe that they're poised to be able to take it up to another level. I think they really need to commit to the quality (lower fee, quality investor) suite of products they've got on the ETF side to take it to another level. Many of those products are more competitive with, say, Wisdom Tree or Vanguard than ProShares. It will be interesting to see how they position the company. The race to leverage/inverse shares has possibly already been lost...though time will tell.

PowerShares. If you count the QQQQ, they'd have about THIRTY billion in new assets. But even without that, $8 billion is mighty impressive for what is a real upstart operation. That continued growth underscores the fact that PowerShares is the real deal and not a phantom VC flash. It will be REALLY interesting to see how things work with the big new parent company and the push forward into Europe. ALWAYS lots of new funky products in the pipeline, ALWAYS the chance for other lottery shot winners on assets. And it seems like they may get serious about the active side too, which is exactly where they ought to head.

Vanguard is arguably the biggest story in the business, but in my mind, their growth and success has become almost taken for granted. They have demonstrated that they are a very serious player in the ETF business, and are committed to it with dedicated product launches and a serious sales force and marketing effort. And they'll win on costs almost every single time. These guys are the ones that BGI (iShares), SSgA and PowerShares really keep their eye on. And they could go ACTIVE with them too!

iShares. I mean really what can you say about BGI? They've done everything right, and continue to do everything right. It just seems like this mega growth vehicle ($80 billion new dollars across many new products) has no end in sight. Do bear in mind that a strong percentage of their growth and a huge portion of their revenues came off of international products where they were inexplicably for a considerable time, the only game in town. The competition is there now, but so has been their continued innovation, and the hiring of more and better people to sell and build and market their funds. Hard to bet against iShares the way things have continued to develop, but there are clearly some strong competitors that should give them a run for their money.

Claymore. Up a billion and a half to now approaching a couple billion. This is one of the issuers I am the most bullish on because they've got a real ETF-focused dynamic within a strong supporting parent company. And I think you need that for the thing to really go. They've also launched a lot of very interesting product in the quant/active space, which is where they ought to remain positioned. If they stay committed, this operation has a lot of upside.

Wisdom Tree. Up over $3 billion this year to $4.5 billion. Those are real inflows. As an investor, I love their model, and I absolutely think they're in it for the long run. And for all the fire Rob Arnott has generated with FTSE RAFI, at least on the ETF side, they've managed to capture that market with marketing and competitive pricing. I think they have a lot of asset space to roam as more investors become more familiar with them. The only questions about wisdom tree are the pure dividend launch (which they've largely fixed) the strong concentration of marketing (which is criticized in some quarters but has clearly gotten them some traction), and their valuation. Hey efficient markets, right? It doesn't seem so nuts to me anymore. I really hope they stay with it, because I really like this kind of (sort of renegade but with quality) player on the scene.

Victoria Bay - we thought they were all finished (and Oil ETFs have inexplicably fallen off the table just as oil prices of soared and contango has diminished) but the gas product was a big hit and maybe there's more in the works from these guys.

First Trust. I love this operation. Lots of good people with a long range focus. And they've come out with some interesting products. The question is whether they will have the level of commitment on the ETF side in terms of sales and marketing in particularly, to really stake a claim at the table. I do feel like they're not going anywhere and will stay in it for the long haul.

XShares - Boy, some of the most interesting products and one of the most interesting business ideas (do your own ETF with us), but they got off to a suboptimal start. That does not diminish the fact that focus on heath care is not such a crazy idea. And it certainly doesn't take away from the successful (and VERY nifty) products they did for TD Waterhouse (the first target date funds). Let's see how they do.

Focus Shares has just hit the market and is aligned right now with one of the best cutting edge brands in the finance business, the ISE. And they're already to market, which is impressive. But to my mind they really do need to get into the kind of products that cover new ground and really fit with the ISE brand if they build on that partnership.

SPA ETFs - with UK origins and a stockpicking bent, this operation is about as purely active (while still being "index based" as anything going. The Barron's pickup of the Marketgrader index is nifty too. So you like the positioning, and at this point it's all about performance and what kind of distribution and marketing they can work up.

Ameristock - never count out Ron Ryan, who got some new fixed-income indices to market in Ameristock ETFs. Maybe Ameristock can pick up the gadfly brand and branch out into alternative equity weighting...

Of the rest - MacroShares. I love them. I just think the ideas are genius and that the timing and maybe initial products were just not right. I hope they make it, because the ideas will. These are the kind of ideas I'd be willing to invest in think tank style, because I think they're big and I think they're right.

Of the rest - NYSE? Ah, I guess that's the old Pacific Tech.

And Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Northern Trust and Fidelity. Good lord, those are some major league heavyweights. Look out...this business could get much much bigger in a hurry. The question is how fundamental a shift we'll see and how many actives go to a tradable structure. So maybe the business is a bubble. But if it is, it feels like a bubble the way China feels like a bubble...a short-term one.

Well - it's always fun to go through and see where everything is at...and 2007 has been a big big year for the ETF industry, and you're starting to really see how things may settle in the industry going forward.

Written by Jim Wiandt