The dough may be rising at Dominos Pizza Inc. (DPZ), but shares in the delivery franchise have not been in recent months. The stock is off roughly 27% since mid-October and presents a buying opportunity, according to Citigroup’s Glen Petraglia.
Dominos’ free cash flow yield has climbed to around 13% based on estimates for 2008, which is well above the average of 6.5% to 7% since the company’s IPO in 2004, the analyst said in a research note. Even if domestic same store sales fall 5% in 2008 and 2009, and margins contract sharply, Mr. Petraglia still sees Dominos’ yield in the range of 8.5% to 9%.
He continues to rate the shares a “buy” with a $20 price target, which is 65% higher than Thursday’s close.
“While near-term uncertainty centered around commodities and the consumer persist, we believe this is already more than reflected in the current share price,” he said.
The analyst also noted possible gains from the company’s plans to spend more on local advertising this year, as well as its marketing campaign focusing on its record of quick delivery.