We conducted a survey of 1,100 investors and traders registered with WhisperNumber.com on Thursday and Friday of last week and asked them what the IPO price would be for Facebook. At that time Facebook expected the price to range between $28 and $35.
46% of the respondents indicated they believed the price would be $34 or greater. Here are the expected IPO price results:
- Less than $28 11.5%
- $28 to $29 9.0%
- $30 to $31 16.7%
- $32 to $33 16.7%
- $34 to $35 20.5%
- Greater than $35 25.6%
But just yesterday we watched as Facebook raised their expected IPO price range from between $28 and $35 to $35 and $38. We ran another survey to a larger audience (1,500 investors and traders) and asked the same question. The majority of investors have narrowed down their expectation to a price between $38 and $39. Here are the full (updated) expected IPO price results:
- Less than $34 7.3%
- $34 to $35 15.5%
- $36 to $37 19.9%
- $38 to $39 31.3%
- $40 to $41 13.0%
- $42 to $43 3.3%
- Greater than $44 9.7%
This gives us the Facebook IPO whisper number of $38 to $39. With the increase in the offering price, and the expectation of investors and traders, the company is valued over $104 billion.
But are these investors ready and willing to jump in and buy the stock? We asked that too, and the results weren't positive.
When asked "Is Facebook a buy after the IPO?", the response was as follows:
- Yes 32%
- No 68%
And we followed that question up with "After the IPO, do you consider Facebook a long term investment?":
- Yes 35%
- No 65%
The following question may help explain the responses found in the prior two questions. We asked "Do you think Facebook is a 'fad'?":
- Yes 48.6%
- No 51.4%
Pretty evenly split but not exactly a glowing endorsement for the business model.
But whether or not the audience polled will be investing in the company, or they don't believe in the business model, an overwhelming majority of 94.4% believe Facebook will still be a public company in two years.
Survey results based on 1,500 respondents, registered traders and investors with WhisperNumber.com, survey conducted May 15th and 16th, 2012. WhisperNumber.com has conducted weekly market surveys with its registered user base of individual investors and traders since 2001.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.