Cramer's Mad Money - Oil's Not Well (5/16/12)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday May 16.

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Apache (NYSE:APA), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY), Joy Global (NYSE:JOY), Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)

Commodities and oil are getting hit hard, but are stocks in this sector low enough to buy? Cramer discussed the analysis of Carolyn Boroden of In a word, the charts of most oil stocks are horrible and are not going to get better. Schlumberger (SLB), Apache (APA) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are making lower highs and lower lows and are below their 50 day and 200 day moving averages. Unless SLB can break out above $76, 10 points from where it is right now, it could fall 26% to $47.72. Apache needs to break out above $98, or 16 points above its current level, or it could drop 20 points, or even fall further to $51.31. OXY is 30 points off of its 52 week high and could fall another 24 points for a 48% decline. Joy Global (JOY) is down 40 points from its 52 week high, and could fall 11 to 14 points from its current level. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is 43% below its 52 week high and is likely to drop 10 points from its current level. Cramer would not bottom fish among oil or commodity stocks.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), Dupont (NYSE:DD), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Disney (NYSE:DIS), Kraft (KFT), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Travelers (NYSE:TRV), Boeing (NYSE:BA), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), GM (NYSE:GM), OraSure (NASDAQ:OSUR), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)

After the Dow finished down 10 of the last 12 sessions, many investors are worried about a more dramatic and sustained fall in the Dow. Cramer thinks only a few of these stocks are very risky, others might drop a few percentage points, and there are some that are buys on declines.

Chevron (CVX) is down 6% for the year so far, and Cramer thinks it could drop until it yields 4%. Exxon (XOM) has fallen 3% and doesn't have a significant dividend cushion. Cramer thinks oil and commodity related stocks are in free fall. Caterpillar (CAT) is "extremely vulnerable" and might see dramatic declines. 3M (MMM) and United Technologies (UTX) are likely to see some downside, but are diversified, strong companies. Dupont (DD) has more going for it than it did last year, and General Electric (GE) saw its share price move up on its dividend boost. Alcoa (AA) has significant exposure to Europe, but aerospace might keep it from falling too far. Wal-Mart (WMT) has been hit on a scandal in Mexico, but that news may be baked in and, like other retailers, it will benefit from low gasoline prices.

Home Depot (HD) reported a good quarter, but still declined, while Disney (DIS) is firing on all cylinders with its Avengers franchise and strength at its theme parks. Procter & Gamble (PG), Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) may all three be "buys," as well as Kraft (KFT) ahead of its split-up. Coca-Cola (KO) will benefit from lower commodity costs. Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) will benefit from Windows 8. Cramer would buy Boeing (BA) on the way down, since it seems to be taking market share from Airbus. Cisco (CSCO) has been hammered, but the bad news is priced in the stock. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is "awful" and can go lower, and while IBM (IBM) can go lower, its earnings and buyback provide a nice floor for the stock. American Express (AXP) has buyers underneath, and Travelers (TRV) reported a good quarter. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) are buys if they decline a point or two because of the domestic growth in wireless. McDonald's (MCD) is factoring in lower numbers that might not happen, and should perform well as raw costs decline.

GM (GM) is too levered to Europe and "doesn't have its cost structure down."

OraSure (OSUR) is a speculative name, but it could be a money-maker. Cramer would buy with care on declines.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), American Tower (NYSE:AMT)

There is no doubt that Facebook (FB) shares will pop on its IPO, and Cramer has emphasized it is not worth buying shares on Friday; those who don't get in on the IPO should wait for a decline in the ensuing weeks and months. However, with the stock valued at close to $100 billion, could Facebook be another bubble, reminiscent of the dotcom era? Facebook, unlike a dotcom stock and many social networking companies, has real earnings and profits and is "too legit to quit." It is even more proprietary than Google (GOOG), and its model cannot be rivaled. When asked by a caller if Google will suffer a loss of advertising revenues to Facebook, Cramer concluded that Google and Facebook are like ABC and CBS when it comes to advertising, and there is room for both.

Cramer took some calls:

American Tower (AMT) needs to pull back 5-8% before it can be bought. The company is "the real deal."


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