Why Greece Fears Are Overblown

by: CRG Research

Greece made a payment to bond holders recently, a sign the country is not moving towards a disorderly default. Although media pundits and Wall Street analysts are suggesting the country could leave the Euro, that is highly unlikely.

The consequences of Greece leaving the Euro would be devastating to the country's economy. The loss of confidence, the confusion, and the social unrest could plunge the nation's economy into one of the most severe contractions in history.

Regardless of the political rhetoric about renegotiating the terms of the bailout or not complying with the current terms of the bailout, the political leaders of Greece, the IMF and the European Union will reach an agreement.

Greek politicians do not want to be responsible for the chaos that would ensue from not reaching an agreement. Leaders of the European Union do not want Italy and Spain to require a bailout. The loss of confidence in European Union leadership, should a Greek deal not be reached, would all but guarantee that Spain and Italy ask for funding.

Additionally, the consequence to the world economy of not reaching a deal in Greece could be catastrophic. The IMF will do everything it can to avoid catastrophe, including renegotiating more favorable terms for Greece.

As a nimble trader my price target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) is 12,000. That has nothing to do with Greece and everything to do with the slow down of the pace of growth in the US.

That being said, I expect a mild recovery in some of the economic indicators and a recovery in the price of equities. Equities should rebound and the Dow could rise to 13,600.

If you aren't as nimble or are an investor, I continue to be bullish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), LG (NYSE:LPL), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.