Navios Maritime Partners: Further Downside Ahead As Dry Bulk Stocks Continue To Tumble

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 |  About: Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM)
by: Alex Shadunsky

A number of dry bulk stocks have tumbled this year as Greece continues to cause turbulence in the markets. Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE:NMM) has had a tough year but its trouble don't even compare to other dry bulk stocks that are dealing with industry issues as well as debt issues. Still, NMM may have more room for downside as it has been one of the best performers in a weak dry bulk industry. Also, the valuation metrics for NMM aren't as favorable as they are for other dry bulk stocks. Below is an in depth look at the valuation metrics and stock chart.

Valuation: Navios Maritime Partners' trailing 5 year valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fairly valued as there is a mixed message about the valuation metrics compared to their 5 year averages. Navios Maritime Partners' current P/B ratio is 1.4 and it has averaged 2.3 over the past 5 years with a high of 7.5 and low of 1.1. Navios Maritime Partners' current P/S ratio is 3.9 and it has averaged 3.8 over the past 5 years with a high of 5.5 and low of 1.3. Navios Maritime Partners' current P/E ratio is 11.2 and it has averaged 10.1 over the past 5 years with a high of 13.7 and low of 4.6.

Price Target: The consensus price target for the analysts who follow Navios Maritime Partners is $18. That is upside of 40% from today's stock price of $13.08 and suggests that the stock is undervalued at these levels. This also suggests that the stock has significant upside and is an attractive opportunity at these levels.

Forward Valuation: Navios Maritime Partners is currently trading at about $13 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $1.02 next year for a forward P/E ratio of 12.8. Taking a look at the company's publicly traded comparisons will give us a better idea of the stock's relative valuation. DryShips (NASDAQ:DRYS) is currently trading at about $2 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $0.29 next year, an earnings increase of 32% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 7.6. Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX) is currently trading at about $7 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $0.3 next year for a forward P/E ratio of 24.4. Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE:NM) is currently trading at about $3 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $0.57 next year, an earnings increase of 10% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 5.6. The mean forward P/E of Navios Maritime Partners's competitors is 12.6 which suggests that Navios Maritime Partners is fairly valued relative to its publicly traded competitors.

Earnings Estimates: Navios Maritime Partners has beat EPS estimates 3 times in the past 4 quarters. The company's EPS figures have come in between -1 cents and 4 cents from consensus estimates or about -3.2% to 12.5% from analyst estimates. The company has reported earnings that have differed from analyst estimates by a small margin which suggests that the stock may experience limited upside from earnings surprises.

Price Action: Navios Maritime Partners is down 31.82% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 0.7%. Looking at the technicals, the stock is currently below its 50 day moving average, which sits at $15.71 and below its 200 day moving average, which sits at $15.32.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.