How Good Were Holiday Sales Really?

The answer to that question depends upon whom you ask.

Speak to ShopperTrak, they will tell you that even though traffic was off, sales increased 4.5%. The firm measures foot traffic in shopping centers and malls via 50,000+ video devices, and adds in U.S. Commerce Department sales data.

Holiday sales in the U.S. climbed 4.5 percent, ahead of ShopperTrak RCT Corp.'s forecast, as retailers lured customers with discounts on clothing and electronics.

The gain exceeded the projection of a 3.6 percent increase, ShopperTrak said in a statement today. Customer visits dropped 2.7 percent during November and December from a year earlier, the firm said...

Other analysts and research firms have projected holiday sales may be the worst in at least five years. The National Retail Federation has forecast a 4 percent rise, the smallest since 2002.

Speak to two of the country's biggest retailers, and you get very different numbers: Wal-Mart (WMT) said in early December that sales would rise between 1-3%; Target (TGT) said same-store sales for December may actually show a decline.

At the same time, the FT reported that "American Eagle (AEO), the youth clothing chain, and Men’s Wearhouse (MW), which specializes in business suits, both cut their fourth-quarter earnings guidance on Wednesday – presaging what is expected to be a round of grim December sales figures on Thursday from other leading US retailers."

My take? I suspect the ShopperTrak data has lots of inflation built into to it via the Commerce department. If we go ex-food and energy to back out inflation, we can get Real sales increases (not nominal inflation gains). Then sales were somewhere between minus 1.5% and plus 1.5%.

UPDATE: January 10, 2008 9:32am

Yecch:

Retailers Post Weak December Sales

A number of retailers cut expectations, led by Kohl's Corp. (KSS), as companies largely posted December same-store-sales figures below already lackluster estimates.

One exception was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., as the giant posted sales at the higher end of forecasts and reiterated its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings forecast of 99 cents to $1.03 a share.

The company posted a 2.4% gain in U.S. same-store sales, excluding fuel, compared with its 1% to 3% forecast. Wal-Mart stores reported 2.6% growth amid strength in grocery, pharmacy and electronics departments. Sam's Club -- long the firm's better sales-growth performer -- had a 1.3% increase amid "slightly lower" traffic and weakness in home furnishings.

Target Corp. posted a 5% drop, double the decline analysts were expecting. The company warned on Christmas Eve that December same-store sales on a calendar-adjusted basis might range from down 1% to up 1%; on that basis sales fell 0.6%. The firm late Wednesday announced that Chief Executive Robert J. Ulrich will retire May 1 and be succeeded by President Gregg W. Steinhafel.

Sources:
ShopperTrak Says Holiday Retail Sales Climbed 4.5%
Duane D. Stanford
Bloomberg, Jan. 9 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP7GHXxcdatg&

Clothing retailers cut their earnings forecasts
Jonathan Birchall
FT, January 10 2008 01:44
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d189592-bf19-11dc-8c61-0000779fd2ac.html

Comments

[freddiemertz]

Barry -- you're confusing comp store sales with total sales. TGT's comp was flattish for the period, but total sales were up 6%. WMT's total sales were up in the high single digits. I still agree that the holiday season was rough and that ShopperTrak's numbers are bogus -- they count traffic and have no idea what people do once they are in the stores.