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Now we know. Based on the implied price of the deal, which is around $7, give or take, this is a take-under.

Yesterday I opined that it appeared apparent:

1. The Fed is behind the deal. (Today’s thought: It’s as likely as yesterday.)

2. The Fed is behind the deal because the rumors yesterday of a near bankruptcy were probably true. (Based on the price, it would appear more evident than ever.)

3. As part of the deal, the government likely agrees to guarantee BofA against Countrywide-related losses. (There was nothing in the press release about that, so let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say BofA is shouldering all of the risk and at this price it believes the risk is worth the reward.)

4. Lost in the in the noise yesterday was that Moody’s downgraded the ratings on 30 (count ‘em — THIRTY!) tranches of Countrywide’s mortgage debt by more than a few notches. They did something similar before American Home Mortgage filed for bankruptcy. (Remains as telling today as it was yesterday.)

5. Investors bid the stock higher assuming a premium when it’s likely that BofA still needs to fully assess the value of the assets before the deal’s full value will be known. (Speculators overshot on leak of the takeover.)

6. Big question, of course, is what Countrywide investors will get. (Not as much as they expected. The New York Times reported that Countrwide chief Angelo Mozilo never thought he’d get less than $10.)

7. Rule of thumb with bankruptcies: Stocks often double on their way to zero. (There are exceptions to every rule; this is one.)

8. BofA gets a free bank and a put to the government. (Make that a free thrift on the former; unclear on the latter.)

Source: The Real Story on Countrywide, Cont.