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Bear Stearns analysts Andy Neff, Bill Hand and Ted Chung sent a note to clients this morning previewing this week's Macworld. Key excerpts:

AAPL MacWorld: ultra-portable notebook, movie rental service, iPhone software update. While there is always a good chance of a surprise announcement (i.e., “one more thing”) from Steve Jobs during his Macworld keynote on Tuesday, January 15 (at 12nn ET/9am PT) in SF, below we highlight our assessment of likely product introductions:

Highest probability:

  • Ultra-portable notebook with flash-based storage
  • Movie rental service via iTunes
  • New software update to iPhone (1.1.3) with improved user interface and features (e.g., home page icon modification, cell-tower-based GPS, etc.)
  • iPhone with higher storage capacity (i.e., 16GB)
  • New Apple TV software upgrade (to enable movie rental)

Medium probability: new Apple TV (hardware), with TV tuner and DVR/PVR feature; over-the-air music purchase for iPhone

Low probability: 3G iPhone, new iPod Shuffle

Stock implications: Positive for AAPL; mixed for STX, WDC (flash-based notebook could be perceived negative for hard disks).

Source: High Probability of New Ultra-Portable Apple Notebook at MacWorld - Bear Stearns