New Coal ETF: The Timing Couldn’t Be Better

With the price of crude oil touching $100 to kick of 2008, it has sparked further debate about energy alternatives. The consensus naturally thinks about the “green” alternatives such as solar, wind, and fuel cells. Further down the line is ethanol and nuclear power. An energy source rarely mentioned is coal.

Even though coal is cheaper than oil on a relative basis, the green house gases it releases make it one of the most damaging to the ozone. As many here in the US and other developed countries push towards dependence from oil, a key requirement is a clean-burning fuel source. In a perfect world, we could use the sun and the wind to create enough energy for the entire world. Unfortunately that is not the case and it will not be for years to come.

Coal Already Dominates

Coal provides 25% of the world’s primary energy and generates 40% of the world’s electricity - and the numbers are projected to increase. Over the first nine months of 2007, the US coal exports increased by 37% from the year earlier. The European demand in the same timeframe increased 15% over the prior year. Where the real demand is coming from is not the developed countries that are concerned about global warming, but rather the emerging markets.

China, South Africa, and a host of Eastern European countries rely heavily on coal as their main energy source. China already gets over 75% of their energy from coal, and this number is only expected to increase with the country’s double-digit GDP increase.

A secondary use for coal that is often overlooked is in the production of steel. Approximately 70% of the global steel production is dependent on coal, with about 13% of total hard coal production going to the steel industry.

Geopolitical Play

If the tensions in Iraq and Iran do not subside, it could lead to more troops in the Middle East and will likely keep the price of oil at or near triple-digits. The higher oil goes, the more attractive coal becomes. With over 68% of oil located in the Middle East or Russia, the world is dependent on a number of rogue states to supply their citizens with electricity. Coal can be found in over 70 countries and the US is the number one producer.

By moving away from our dependence on Middle East oil, it allows the US to better control the price of its energy supply. Solar and wind will eventually be the answer, but realistically we are decades away from using them as a major energy source.

The New Coal ETF

The timing could not be any better for the new Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), which was launched on 1/14/08. My charts created a buy signal for the coal stocks last week as many, including the Dow Jones US Coal Index pulled back from a recent high to find support. In lieu of picking one or two coal stocks, investors now have the option of buying a basket of coal producers and coal-related companies.

The ETF is composed of 60 coal-related stocks, with many of the big names in the top 10. The coal mining and production companies make up 73% of the ETF, followed by 15% in coal power generation, 9% in coal mining equipment, and 2% in coal technology. Large-cap stocks account for 56%, mid-cap 29%, and small-cap 15%. The net expense ratio is 0.65%.

The top holdings include China Coal Energy (Hong Kong), Consol Energy (CNX), Bumi Resources (Indonesia), Peabody Energy (BTU), and China Shenhua Energy Corp (China). In total, 11 countries are represented in the ETF, with the US making up approximately 50%. The large exposure to overseas offers added diversity and is a plus.

Even though I do like a few of the individual coal names, the new ETF from Van Eck offers investors a one-stop shopping experience. The exposure to domestic and international plays along with the diversity into the sub-sectors is enough to make KOL an immediate buy candidate.

Disclosure: none

Comments

[NBGill]

GHG's are generally not damaging to "the ozone;" they cause climate change. Ozone is damaged by CFC's and various other gases.