Housing Market Tracker - Sales/Price Outlook

by: Judy Weil

Quote of the Day

"Even the relatively large declines in the median don't tell the whole story. Everybody knows there's a significant correction underway. Everything's pointing in the same direction -- a lot of what's selling right now is where you have a really motivated seller, or a foreclosure." – San Diego broker Andrew LePage. (Voice of San Diego, Jan. 15th)

Real Estate Sales and House Prices

California New-Home Sales Fall 55% In November "California Building Industry Association and Hanley Wood Market Intelligence report: New-home sales plummeted 54.6% in California and the statewide median price fell 7% in November compared to November 2006. Sales of all new-home types in the state dropped from 6,536 in November 2006 to 2,968 in November 2007... The median price of new single-family homes in the state dropped 12.2%, from $455,790 in November 2006 to $399,990 a year later... New condo sales dropped 70.3% statewide, falling from 1,386 in November 2006 to 412 in November 2007. The median price of condos rose 19.6%, from $382,900 in November 2006 to November 2007." (Inman News, Jan. 16th)

Pricey Homes Buoy Santa Cruz County Housing Market: High-End Sales Keep Median At $732,000 Santa Cruz, California: "Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty: The median price for single-family homes was $732,000 in December, a slight dip from $740,000 in November... 76 homes sold in December, the fewest sales for any month in 11 years... Still, one in five homes sold commanded a price of $1 million or more, and mostly oceanfront... The change in the mix of buyers keeps median prices from falling very far, even though plenty of first-time buyers are sitting on the sidelines." (Santa Cruz Sentinel, Jan. 15th)

Triad Housing Market Takes a Hit In Fourth Quarter "Greensboro Regional Realtors Association Triad Housing Report: Existing home sales in the [North Carolina] Triad dropped 18.3% compared to Q4'06, as inventory climbed and prices declined slightly. Existing home sales dropped to 2,387, while the average home price declined 1.6% from Q4'06, to $179,586. The inventory of homes was 8,193, [a] 12 months [supply]... The average home price, at $190,161, declined 1.6% compared to Q4'06 and the average time on the market... decreased to 92 days, down 2.7% from last year." (Greater Triad Business Journal, Jan. 15th)

South, East County Hardest Hit San Diego: "Here's a shot at breaking that whole home price down to what December buyers paid per square foot [PPSF]. For resale detached homes, the median PPSF fell the sharpest in East and South County neighborhoods. In the last three months of the year, the PPSF for East County homes was $268, a 15% drop from December 2006, and a 21% drop from that area's peak. In the South County, the median PPSF for resale detached homes was $256, a year-over-year change of 21.5% and a drop from the peak of 23.5%." (Voice of San Diego, Jan. 15th)

City: Market Value Of Properties Increased Only 1.4 Percent "The estimated value of New York City's real estate increased by only 1.4% over the past fiscal year, according to the Department of Finance's tentative property assessment roll. Market values dropped 0.70% in Queens, 0.58% in Brooklyn and 3.29% on in Staten Island. Market values increased by 5.1% in Manhattan and 6.0% in Bronx. Citywide, the value of one-, two- and three-family homes decreased by 2.76%. Last year, the city reported that the market's estimated value jumped by 19%... Overall, property values increased to $807.4 billion, up from $796B." (The Real Deal, Jan. 15th)

Insiders Hopeful As Housing Inventory Falls "Idaho: Intermountain Multiple Listing Service: Housing inventory in Ada County is down by 1,000 homes since July and by 425 in Canyon County since August. That still leaves 6,470 Treasure Valley homes on the market. "But in the last 90 days we've cut the inventory by about 16%," said Shaun Tracy, a broker with Re/Max Capital City. "I think the next 90 days are going to be critical. If we can shave another 16% off the inventory, that's going to be huge. It might bring the market back in balance, if not swinging it back to a seller's market." (Idaho Statesman, Jan. 14th)

Bad News Could Mean Good Deals "There are about 5,880 single-family homes for sale on the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service - a 15-month supply. There is a 23-month supply of condos with 7,659 listings... Despite the abundance of supply and price cuts at some properties, average prices along the Grand Strand aren't dropping. Median prices... for single-family homes rose 5% on the Grand Strand in 2007 and condo prices rose 4%." (Myrtle Beach Online, Jan. 14th)

Global Housing Prices

UK Housing Market Continuing Down the US Path "Bloomberg: U.K. real-estate professionals said December was the worst month for the housing market since the aftermath of Britain's last recession in 1992. The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 49.1 percentage points, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today in London. That compares with 40.6 points the previous month. In the capital, confidence in prices fell to the lowest since 2003... A measure of expected prices slid to minus 62 from minus 47 in November, both the lowest since RICS started collecting data on the outlook in Oct. 1998." (Naked Capitalism, Jan. 16th)

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