Investors have been attracted to mortgage REITs including American Capital Agency (AGNC) due to their strong dividend yields. The majority of mortgage REITs trade around book value, thus investors need to understand the specific strategies that each manager deploys. AGNC is an agency focused mortgage REIT, meaning they investment in securities that have an implicit government guarantees. AGNC management has been able to outperform its peers due to security selection. AGNC has focused on securities that exhibit lower prepayment speeds than other securities.
Prepayment Risks
Mortgage REIT investors should focus on conditional prepayment rates (CPR) to monitor the health and dividend potential for mortgage REITs. The CPR reflects the percentage of principal that is prepaid over a period of time on an annualized basis.
As CPRs increase, the company will have to invest in securities with lower coupons, which will hurt earnings. Mortgage REITs are highly levered investment vehicles, which employ significant leverage to generate yields. Accumulating securities with lower CPR in a declining interest rate environment has allowed AGNC to outperform peers and provide investors with a strong dividend yield. The graphics below outline the asset mix and trends in CPRs for AGNC's portfolio.
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The table below from eMBS, outline CPR for the broader market.
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AGNC management has accumulated Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) securities that carry low balances ($85,000 - $125,000) or high loan to values (105% to 125%). The rationale is simple, homeowners that have lower balances are less likely to refinance their mortgages and pay closing costs despite modest moves in rates. A borrower that has $100,000 in outstanding loan balance is less likely to take advantage of a 25 basis point move in rates as it only saves them $250 per year. A borrower that has a $400,000 mortgage can save $1,000 per year making the refinance more likely. Similarly, owners that have high low to value loans that have already refinance have lower refinance risk.
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American Capital Agency, Key Financials - Fixed Rate Agency Focused REIT
Price to Book Value: 1.1x
Dividend Yield: 16.7%
Market Capitalization: $9.0 billion
Leverage: 7.7x
