A good friend of mine used to shout this when decision making became gridlocked. It's apt for how the world is operating nowadays. There doesn't seem to be any courageous or decisive leadership currently. Buying time seems the best leaders can do and hope they'll get reelected hanging on to power. Then we start all over again.
I was sitting next to an older fellow yesterday at the gym. It was his first day of exercising after twin knee replacements. I asked, "Did you really need to have both done now." "Damn", he said, "Why do I want to go back through it again?" I think I did the same a long time ago with my wisdom teeth. The doctor said we could take out two now and do the next in a year or two. "Are you kidding me? " I asked. "Take 'em all out now and give me enough drugs to last a week or so."
So those personal things aside, world leaders face the same choices-deal with these problems directly and quit kidding themselves and the people. If you really didn't want to be president or prime minister why did you raise your hand?
Now there will be a Euro Summit this weekend with either a decisive Greek outcome (exit stage left?) or some other murky and gutless outcome. Whatever the decision, it will come with U.S. markets closed leaving it hard for most folks (unless you have an account in London and etc) to protect themselves after the fact. So, with little time before the extended holiday weekend many may hit the exits.
The U.S. has its own problems, poor leadership and a major election ahead. For now it's a game of kick the can until after the fact. Then you know what will hit the fan in a big way.
Anyway market participants weren't too thrilled about the road ahead either, at least not early. They bought the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) and sold stocks hard early and often on eurozone fun and games until rumors caused a sharp reversal. Bonds (IEF, aka "mattress money") had rallied, commodities (USO, DBC & JJC for example) all fell then made a comeback. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) saw selling on the stronger dollar and then late day buying on QE hopes and other rumors.
Charles Biderman of well-regarded TrimTabs utters the impossible that China will be the next problem area and is already in recession.
After being down nearly 200 points markets turned around late as the infamous 2:15 PM Buy Program Express kicked-in (a few minutes late) and stocks rallied sharply off lows as another short squeeze began. Rumors spread that France wanted a heavy dose of QE, another suggested a broad bank euro deposit guarantee and Fed Governor Kocherlakota suggested more U.S. QE was available and…wait for it, the U.S. was nearing full employment.
After the close Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ) announced "adjusted" earnings which beat expectations even though it posted a loss. Along with it came pink slips for 27K employees. (Yeah, it's the mean streets of corporate America at work.)
Volume increased in both directions. Was it wasted buying power? Or, just some insiders defending their positions and not believing in a euro breakdown? No one really knows. Breadth per the WSJ wound up inexplicably positive.
Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs
Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs
Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs
The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
A rumor driven day and some odd comments from a Fed governor get the algos going launching the 2:15 PM Buy Program Express…albeit 10 minutes late. Algos loved Kocherlakota's comments that QE could be launched at any time and bizarrely suggesting the U.S. was nearing full employment. They also loved the idea that the eurozone would initiate deposit insurance for all member banks an idea that most say can't happen.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) dragged tech higher with its heavy-weighting. Gone in the street's memory is the Facebook fiasco and even this morning's near 200 point collapse.
The Fed's next meeting is in June and bulls are betting they'll do some POMO which Goldman Sachs has suggested is the latest time they can do it before the election. And, as you know, the Fed is full of former Goldman managing directors so they know what's going on.
Durable Goods Orders (.5% expected vs prior -4.2%) and Jobless Claims (371K guess vs prior 370K) is set for Thursday before the open.
Keep your seat belts fastened at all times.
Let's see what happens.
Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current positions if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.
The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.