-
Font Size:

I am took the opportunity to sell the remaining 200 shares of Agco (AG) as the stock was up nearly 5% on Friday. I initiated this position in mid November [Initiating Agco (AG) Position]
and after doing very well in this name as the stock breached $70, gave
up all those gains in the past few weeks. I am now exiting with a small
gain (under $1000) overall.
Let me give you my thinking. I have
been and continue to be an agricultural bull. I had loaded up on the
fertilizer names early, and wanted to diversify across agriculture into
some equipment names as well. In early October I began a position in CNH Global (CNH) after debating whether to go into Deere (DE), Agco (AG), or CNH Global (CNH). [Still Not Enough Agriculture Exposure - Adding a New Name: CNH Global (CNH)]. Then after yet another great report from Agco (AG) [Agco Reports a Great Quarter and Agricultural Bull Keeps Going]
in late October, I decided to add that name a few weeks later.
I still
believe in this group, but the market seems to be very antsy, and I
suppose any fears of global slowdown will push these stocks down,
although I've mentioned many times, I believe agriculture is in its own
secular bull market. But what I think, and what a panicked market
thinks are two very different things.
Since the CNH Global report [Closing Last of CNH Global] early this week, Agco has been suffering collateral damage. With earnings two weeks from now for Agco,
and an antsy market I don't really want to hold this name into an
earnings report, and make a small gain turn into a loss. So despite the
very good valuations in this group, I am going to stand aside for now
and re-assess. I like the fertilizer names far more than the equipment
names because equipment has issues such as higher input costs (steel,
petrol products, etc) that affect margins negatively, whereas the
fertilizer names are simply immune to just about everything. So I might
just concentrate on those names even though I like the whole space.
Again,
I find nothing wrong with these equipment names, but the market is not
treating them very well despite what I'd consider to be low valuations.
As you can see, Agco (AG) trades below the 50 day
moving average, and has not bounced much when many
other names have put on very large moves. So I will put in this in the
ever growing pile of "better safe than sorry" moves. Certainly Agco
could post a great earnings, make all fears disappate and go up 20% in
a blink of an eye in two weeks. But it could suffer the same fate as CNH Global
as well. With the market being so moody I don't want to suffer the
consequences of a 50/50 outcome; so I am exiting at this point and will
re-assess at a later date.
I sold my last 200 shares in the mid $57s.
No positions
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
ETFs In Focus
-
Editor's Picks
-
Most Popular
- Latest Commodities Indicator: Fed Policy
- Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide'
- Priceline: More Headwinds Ahead
- PFI: PowerShares Dynamic Financials Outperforms Its Peers
- Interview with Kevin Carter, AlphaShares CEO
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines
- Full list of Editor's Picks »
- Has Jim Cramer Crossed the Line with Sirius XM? »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Pfizer Is Worth Another Look »
- Steve Jobs: Not Dead Yet »
- Bloomberg's Premature Steve Jobs Obit: Why? »
- New Gas Discoveries a Boon for U.S. Energy Sector »
- Buffett Takes Berkshire Hathaway on $4 Billion Spending Spree »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Sirius XM Belt Tightening Begins »
- Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II »
- Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover »
-
Long Ideas
-
Short Ideas
-
Cramer's Picks
- Faith Doesn't Cut It - Cramer's Mad Money (8/29/08)
- Again With the Financials - Fast Money Recap (8/29/08)
- Potash One Will Be Top Performer in Agriculture Bull Market
- Luxury Retail Stocks: Two Worth a Look
- 11 Top Canadian Dividend Stocks Available as ADRs
- Natural Gas Is Oversold, and We Are Buying
- Libbey Inc.: The Glass is Half Full
- Mad Money Manual - Cramer's Mad Money (8/28/08)
- An Eye on Gustav - Fast Money Recap (8/28/08)
- Will You Look Back on Today as Your Greatest Missed Opportunity?
- Full list of Long Ideas »
- Priceline: More Headwinds Ahead
- The Option Arm Triplets: Dead Banks Walking
- Short Thesis Still Intact at FirstFed
- Short Story: Lehman
- 'Buy, But Sell' - What Are Analysts Thinking?
- Nordson's Rally Is Over, For Now - Barron's
- What's So Special About RadioShack? - Barron's
- Salesforce.com: It's All About the Guidance
- Three Casino Stocks Rolling Over
- New Web Site For Short Sellers: You Gotta Love Capitalism
- Full list of Short Ideas »
- Faith Doesn't Cut It - Cramer's Mad Money (8/29/08)
- Mad Money Manual - Cramer's Mad Money (8/28/08)
- Diversified Portfolios - Cramer's Mad Money (8/27/08)
- Gustav Moves Overdone - Cramer's Stop Trading! (8/27/08)
- GrafTech is Too Cheap - Cramer's Stop Trading
- The Rebound List - Cramer's Mad Money (8/26/08)
- The List - Cramer's Stop Trading! (8/26/08)
- Can't Turn My Back - Cramer's Lightning Round (8/26/08)
- The Pelosi Factor - Cramer's Mad Money (8/25/08)
- Buy Tech Weakness - Cramer's Lightning Round (8/25/08)
- Full list of Cramers Picks »
Trading Center
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »



This article has 2 comments: