Monday AM: More Cautious Analyst Notes on Apple

Couple of firms are out with cautious comments on Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone this morning:

One of these firms is Bernstein, with a new call saying that based on their channel checks and additional analysis, they now believe that of the 1.45M phones that were missing in action as of the end of the quarter, 480,000 units (excluding demo units) are in channel inventory in the 4400 non-Apple iPhone distribution outlets worldwide - or just over 8 weeks of inventory on a forward-looking basis - and about 1M are "unlocked" phones, a stunning 27% of all units sold through year end.

Firm continues to believe Apple's 10M iPhone unit sales target for 2008 is aggressive without major price cuts or new models, especially if Apple hopes to maintain the rich economics of the current iPhone business model.

The other firm has asked me to hold up posting until they can distribute the call to their paying customers. But I can tell you the comments are ugly. Will post when I hear back from them (updated here).

By the way, I fully acknowledge it is likely too late to turn negative on AAPL stock here (down 70+ pts from the highs). So I must add that RBC Capital is out with defensive comments on the stock this morning, saying analysis suggests high unlocked iPhone sales (est 25- 30%), not high channel inventory, accounts for variances between recently reported iPhone activations and Apple's 4M unit shipped (3.7M end Q1), equating to 4-6 weeks channel inventory, inline. Unlocked sales, though headache for carriers, are financially positive for Apple, and in their view bode well for global iPhone demand, and for Apple exceeding its 10M 18-mo target.

Comments

[digivision:]

sounds like positive news to me, the black market for iphones is huge

2008 Jan 28 07:49 AM

[Jon T:]

Following Apple for some years now - I will believe Apple way before the analysts - so called!

Just more bear attacks from those having missed the boat before methinks.

2008 Jan 28 07:53 AM

[charanischiu:]

Unlock iPhone is hot in Asia even it is not officially launch in this area.

We are still waiting for an official launch iPhone no matter is 3G model or not.

When will Apple CEO finally decide to announce the official launch of iPhone and open the Apple store in Asia? Mainland China?

2008 Jan 28 08:30 AM

[Thomas A, G...:]

The part the amazes me about everyone slamming apple about Iphone numbers. Why don't they just pick up the phone and call Apple. Sounds logical to me, just call Apple ask them.

Thomas A. Gaughan

2008 Jan 28 08:39 AM

[thompson:]

Thomas,

Apple won't provide specific enough answers to any questions. Believe me, the phone has been picked up and questions have been asked. But Apple is notoriously mum on issues like this. They like the results each quarter to speak for themselves. And the results will be speaking volumes again this quarter.

Long and strong AAPL,
Thompson

2008 Jan 28 09:13 AM

[top_tier:]

This blog is as ill conceived as Bernstein's comment. We already know they ARE coming out with a new model. There's very likely very large markets in asia that will be opened up. Don't you think this 10 million is a reflection of these things that have yet to happen for this year? Of course. You so called pundits try to get informed sometime.

2008 Jan 28 09:24 AM

[Tom B:]

The Razr, at a comparable price and hugely inferior, has sold upwards of 100 M units to date.

2008 Jan 28 09:25 AM

[top_tier:]

"The Razr, at a comparable price and hugely inferior, has sold upwards of 100 M units to date." Untrue. The comparable priced model as follows:

Motorola's Razr 2 may not be the iPhone killer the company was hoping for, and in fact appears to be suffering from weaker than expected sales at the hand of the very phone it was competing with. Estimates place Razr 2 sales at about half of what the original Razr managed during a similar period, according to Business Report.
The cell phone company likely sold only two million of its Razr 2 during the holiday season according to estimates by former Oppenheimer analyst Lawrence Harris. In comparison, Apple sold over 2.3 million iPhones during the same period.

Apple announced during its first quarter earnings report on Tuesday that it had sold some 2.315 million iPhones over the holiday season, pushing overall iPhone sales up to the 4 million mark. The company hopes to sell 10 million units before the end of 2008.

www.ipodobserver.com/s...

2008 Jan 28 09:55 AM

[Tom B:]

""The Razr, at a comparable price and hugely inferior, has sold upwards of 100 M units to date." Untrue. The comparable priced model as follows:"

I was referring to the Razr 1. My point was that I expect we will see over 100 million iPhones sold within 5--ish years, given the success of Razr 1.

2008 Jan 28 12:56 PM