Right now, I am bullish on U.S. fixed-income securities, U.S. equities, crude oil, and gold, although equities could be in the process of going into an intermediate-term decline as part of an overall major decline. The fiscal and monetary policy environment in the U.S. and Europe could act as a catalyst for recessionary conditions in the U.S. That being said, I am opportunistically bullish on stocks and the "risk-on" trade. I invest in accordance with my daily value-at-risk guidelines.
AT&T (T) - Neutral: Operating income-share declined and valuations may be near peaks
Company v. Industry (TTM)
- Return on Assets: 1.63 v. 3.59
- Return on Investment: 1.86 v. 5.08
- Return on Equity: 3.80 v. 6.79
Operating income-share declined; the operating income-share decline is considered bearish.
Price-share is increasing; price-share may be near a peak and could decline in the coming months.
Price-sales is increasing; price-sales may be near a peak and could decline in the coming months.
Price-operating income is increasing; price-operating income may be near a peak and could decline in the coming months.
Verizon (VZ) - Neutral: Book value-share is declining and valuation metrics are probably peaking
Company v. Industry (TTM)
- Return on Assets: 4.81 v. 3.59
- Return on Investment: 7.38 v. 5.08
- Return on Equity: 7.01 v. 6.79
Book value-share is declining; the decline in book value-share is considered bearish.
Share price is rising and may be near an intermediate-term peak.
Price-sales may be peaking; I expect price to declining in the coming months.
Price-book value may be peaking; I expect price to declining in the coming months.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is declining; the pace of growth is slowing - which is bearish for US equities.
The pace of growth in non-farm employment is declining; the pace of growth is expected to continue to slow.
CB consumer confidence is increasing; the index is expected to decline in the coming months.
European Union flash manufacturing PMI is declining; the index is expected to rise in the coming months.
European Union flash services PMI is declining; the index is expected to rise in the coming months.
Author's Note: As a formally trained investment analyst and portfolio manager, my mission on Seeking Alpha is to provide my audience with outstanding investment opinions (buy, neutral, sell). Unfortunately, it would take an enormous amount of my time to write about all of the analytic techniques I use. That being said, a lot of the techniques are intuitive and built from years of studying, training, and investing. The best way for me to communicate my investment opinions, without including obnoxious amounts of detail, is to tell you how I am currently investing.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.