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RedEnvelope, Inc. (REDE)

Q3 2006 Earnings Conference Call

January 24th 2006, 5:00 PM.

Executives:

Jordan Goldstein, IR

Dan Lyle, Chairman of the Board

Alison May, Chief Executive Officer

Polly Boe, Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Rusty Hoss, Roth Capital Partners LLC, Analyst

Jim Bear (ph), BL King, Analyst

Kristine Koerber, JMP Securities, Analyst

Rebecca Kujawa, Stanford Financial Group, Analyst

Operator

Good day and welcome everyone to the RedEnvelope Third Quarter Fiscal 2006 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time I'd like to turn the call over to Jordan Goldstein with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jordan Goldstein, Investor Relations

Thank you operator, and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us for RedEnvelope's third quarter 2006 financial results presentation. With us this afternoon are Dan Lyle, Chairman of the Board of Directors; Alison May, the Chief Executive Officer; and Polly Boe, the Chief Financial Officer of RedEnvelope. Earlier this afternoon the company issued a release reporting it's third quarter financial results. This release can be accessed from the "About RedEnvelope" tab at www.redenvelope.com, and from the financial newswires. This call is being webcast with a web replay available. The live webcast as well as the replay can be accessed on the Investor Relations site at www.redenvelope.com. The webcast replay will remain accessible for 12 months. We have also arranged a tape replay of this call, which may be accessed by telephone. That replay becomes available approximately one hour after the call's conclusion today and will be available through the end of the day, Friday, January 27th. The dial-in access number for the telephonic replay is 888-203-1112 with a pass code required, which is 4612907.

Before we begin, I'd like to make a brief statement regarding forward-looking remarks. The presentation today contains forward-looking information regarding future events and the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are just predictions and actual results may differ materially as a result of risk and uncertainties that pertain to our business. We refer you to the documents the company files periodically with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's most recent 10-Q and Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as the Safe Harbor statement in the press release issued today. These documents contain important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the company's projections of forward-looking statements, and finally RedEnvelope assumes no obligation to revise any forward-looking projections that may be made in today's release or call. With that out of the way, I'd like to turn the call over to Dan Lyle, Chairman of the Board of RedEnvelope. Dan?

Dan Lyle, Chairman of the Board

Thank you, Jordan. Good afternoon, I want to welcome you also to our conference call and begin by telling you about several significant announcements we've made today. We announced today that the Board has accepted the resignation of Kristine Dang who has left the company to pursue other opportunities. Kristine was our Executive Vice-President of merchandising and creative. We thank Kristine for seven successful years with RedEnvelope and the contributions she has made to our products and our brand image.

The Board has also accepted the resignation of Alison May from her position as President and CEO of RedEnvelope. Alison has guided the company for four years through our initial public offering and has doubled our revenues. The Board has retained an executive search firm and is interviewing promising candidates to lead the company through the next stages of our growth. The Board appreciates that Alison has agreed to remain in her position until her successor has been named and through this transition period. The Board has confidence in Alison to continue to execute the company strategy and to lead the management team. The search for a new head of merchandising will be led by a new CEO once he or she is in place.

In the meantime, the merchandising and creative teams continue to develop the company's distinctive products and are enthusiastically focused on holiday 2006. I would now like to introduce Alison May who will provide you with an update on our operating performance for the third quarter and our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2006. Alison?

Alison May, Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Dan, and thank you all for joining us this afternoon. Our third quarter ending January 1st has some very positive results, but overall it did not quite live up to our expectations. We achieved demand growth in our main marketing channels of between 14 to 18% but we're faced with a highly promotional retail environment, which forced us to offer significant shipping discounts resulting in a net revenue growth rate of 11.6%. We had planned stronger overall growth.

Some categories performed very well, primarily our Home category, New Baby and Kids categories, Gourmet Foods, and Plants and Flowers. On a combined basis these four categories accounted for approximately 42% of our total demand and grew at 30%. Clearly our customers respond when we have the right products. However, our Jewelry and Accessories categories did not perform as planned. Jewelry has traditionally been one of our largest and most profitable categories. And although jewelry did grow over last year our customer did not respond as well as we would have liked to our assortments this holiday season. This had an important impact on our top-line and bottom-line growth.

We were pleased with our growth in business gift services this year and believe this is an area that has great potential for the company. While our initial margins increased over the prior year, the shipping discounts we offered offset this improvement and accounted for the majority of our decline in gross margin. We made many improvements in our fulfillment operations this year. Our receiving and quality control functions worked well. We had strong inventory control. We were extremely happy with our new carrier: UPS. We achieved efficiencies in most key areas of our performance center.

However, we did experience a software problem with our warehouse management system, which caused our system to operate very slowly during some peak volume days. One of the consequences was that we developed a backlog of orders, which we had to work through manually, a time consuming process and we were not in a position to promote our products towards the end of the season. We believe that we had resolved the systems problems and believed that we were unable to make timely delivery on less than 2% of the orders for the quarter. This was clearly unacceptable performance. And we are offering special incentives to those customers who may have been affected in order to improve the probability that they will return and shop with RedEnvelope.

On the marketing fronts, we were able to reduce our marketing expense as a percentage of sales from 25.8% to 22.8%. However, the catalog continues to become less efficient as a means of new customer acquisition. We are re-evaluating our catalog circulation strategy and have hired an outside agency to assist us in the process. While impossible to quantify, I do believe that our advertising campaign last year helped drive traffic to our site and that we might have underestimated the positive impact that had on our growth last year. Our total marketing spend was basically flat with last year but we shifted those advertising dollars to catalog, a strategy that was not as successful as we had planned. We made many improvements to our website including multiple imaging of products, targeted messaging for new and returning customers, customer testimonials with a link to biz rate and articulation of our value proposition. This did improve our conversion but we did not drive the amount of traffic we drove last year when we had the advertising program in place. Given what we have learned, we are looking at alternative customer acquisition and retention strategies for holiday 2006.

We had very high profile public relations efforts and our products were featured in many major television programs as well as in most major publications. This is a highly efficient marketing vehicle for us and we believe it brings extremely motivated customers to our site. We continue to gain leverage on our fixed costs. General and administrative expenses declined as a percentage of net revenues from 9.3% to 8.7%.

In summary, while we did not grow as quickly as we would have liked due to loss of shipping revenue and a weaker than expected demand for our jewelry and accessories categories, most other categories performed quite well.

We also improved three key business metrics. As a percentage of net revenues we improved our fulfillment expense by 30 basis points, our marketing expense by 300 basis points and our G&A by 60 basis points for a combined improvement of 390 basis points in operating expenses compared to the third quarter of the prior year. Our merchandising and product development teams are enthusiastically preparing for holiday 2006. Our customers have sent us a clear message of what they like and did not like about our products. We have a very talented team of merchants and designers who can react to this information, some of whom who have joined us in the last six months and bring very strong merchandising backgrounds from well-known retailers.

I would just like to comment that although I will be stepping down, I will be actively involved in the transition to a new CEO, I have every confidence in RedEnvelope and in the dedicated team of people in place at the company and on the Board. There are so many positive trends and the brand has such a strong foundation that I have no doubt that with new leadership and renewed vigor we will be able to realize the full potential of the company. And now I would like to turn this over to Polly Boe, our CFO who will give you a more comprehensive report on our third quarter results.

Polly Boe, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Alison. This afternoon I will review our third quarter earnings results as well as our balance sheet, and finally, an update to our full-year outlook. Net revenue for the third quarter of 2006 was $53 million with growth of 11.6% over the $47.5 million during the third quarter of 2005. The revenue growth we experienced in the quarter was a disappointment across both our key channels, online and catalog. We had a 15.3% growth in shipped orders but a 3.2% drop in average revenue per order. All due to discounted shipping offered during the holiday season. We did have strong revenues from the categories of Home, Children, New Baby, Gourmet Food, and Plants and Flowers. As Alison mentioned, our disappointments were in Jewelry as well as Men's and Women's Accessories. We are increasing our focus on building stronger assortments in these categories. For the quarter, the gross margin was 52.3%, which is 210 basis points below the prior year third quarter of 54.4%. Again, primarily this was a result of discounting shipping revenue during the holiday season in response to the promotional environment as well as higher shipping expense.

While our initial margins did improve over last year, the increase was not sufficient to offset the shipping factor. Net revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2006 was $91.1 million with growth of 15% over the $79.2 million during the same period last year. The gross margin was 51.7%, which was 160 basis points below the prior year margin of 53.3%. Again primarily due to the negative impact of the Q3 shipping margin.

During the quarter we shipped 638,000 orders, 15.3% increase over last year's third quarter. Our prior year order count has been refined slightly for consistency and should be noted as 553,000 orders. Our revenue per order was $83, which was a 3.2% decrease from the $86 per order in the third quarter of last year. Again, this shortfall was due to the impact of discounted shipping revenues during the holiday season. And our gross profit per order was $43, which was a 7% drop from the $47 profit per order we experienced in the third quarter of 2005.

During the first nine months of fiscal 2006 we shipped 1,139,000 orders, 14.5% increase over last year. And our revenue per order was $80, which was flat with last year. Our gross profit per order was $41 compared to $42 per order for the first nine months of fiscal 2005. The customer house file grew to 2.8 million names as of the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2006, a growth of 586,000 names since last year and a growth of 279,000 names since the second quarter of this year. We continue to see growth in the percent of our business coming from the house file with 51% of the third quarter sales from existing customers versus 48% for the same quarter last year. While we take this as encouraging news, we also realize the importance to continue to invest in prospecting. Our fulfillment expense as a percent of net revenue improved slightly to 13.1% for the quarter versus the prior year rate of 13.4%. And for the first nine months this rate also improved to 13.8%, from 15.2% in the same period last year.

While we did experience limited operational issues in the fulfillment center during December as Alison described, we are pleased overall with the performance from the operating expense standpoint. Marketing expenses decreased slightly this quarter in the ratio of marketing cost to revenue decreased from 25.8% last year to 22.8%. Last year we spent approximately $3 million on our average of our marketing spend for an advertising campaign. This year we chose not to buy traditional advertising and instead rely on a combination of online and catalog circulation. The catalog circulation was not as efficient in driving revenue as we had planned.

Marketing expenses for the first nine months of fiscal 2006 were $21.7 million and 23.8% of net revenue, which was slightly more efficient than the prior year's rate of 24.5%. Our G&A expenses were essentially flat in the third quarter to the same quarter last year. The G&A ratio for the quarter decreased to 8.7% of net revenues from 9.3% for the same quarter, due to improved expense leverage. G&A spending is inline with our expectations and consistent with the first half of the year. For the first nine months of fiscal 2006, G&A expenses have increased by $1.4 million as compared to last year due to hiring during the year. The G&A ratio for the period for the nine-month period decrease of 15.6% of net revenues from 16.2% for the same period last year.

The net income for the quarter was $4.1 million or $0.43 per diluted share compared to the prior year third quarter income of 2.8 million or $0.30 per diluted share. This was below our expectations due to lower than planned revenue, along with a negative impact of shipping revenue to our margin. The net income improvement of 48% over last year was due to topline growth along with expense efficiencies primarily in marketing. Net loss for the first nine months was $1.1 million or $0.13 loss per share compared to the prior year loss of 2.1 million or $0.24 loss per share. The primary reasons for the improvement over the prior year were again, the revenue growth of 15% over last year, along with the expense management across fulfillment, marketing, and general and administrative areas.

Now I'd like to discuss briefly the balance sheet at the end of the quarter. Cash and short-term investments were $28.9 million compared to $27.5 million last year. In our inventory balance of $15.5 million consisted of predominately core products at a level that we are comfortable carrying into future seasons. Our additions to PT&E continue to be below last year, but overall are inline with our spending plan for the full year of $3.5 million. Before I discuss our updated guidance I need to point out that incorporated into our forecast are ordered trends we have seen to date and need to remind you that actual results could vary from our guidance.

I also need to provide some background on our upcoming fourth quarter of this year. Our plans for the fourth quarter revenue were always for essentially flat revenue with last year's fourth quarter due to two factors: The loss of the extra week that was in last year's fourth quarter, and by that I mean, last year was a 53-week fiscal year and this year is a 52-week year. And secondly, the shift of $1.5 million in delayed shipment last year from the third quarter into the fourth quarter due to the weather issues in December of 2004. As a result of these two factors, the fourth quarter was always planned to have a negative impact to our annual growth. We now expect our net revenue for fiscal 2006 to grow 7 to 10% and we no longer expect to have positive earnings but expect a loss smaller than last year for the full-year result. The single factor that has caused this change in our full-year expectations is a revenue shortfall, both in product demand, for holiday, and forecasted for the fourth quarter as well as lower shipping revenue due to free shipping promotions. All other areas of the business have generally performed inline with our expectations. Now, I'd like to open the call to questions. Operator?

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. Operator Instructions We’ll pause for just a moment. We do have a question from Rusty Hoss with Roth Capital.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Good afternoon. Excuse me. On the marketing side of things, and also how it relates to the fulfillment, was there problems at the end of the quarter which is why you didn't spend as much on the marketing side and also, why the revenue growth rate was a lot lower than was anticipated?

A - Polly Boe

Rusty, this is Polly. I think what you might be referring to is over the last couple of days, right before Christmas.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Right.

A - Polly Boe

We did have to stop accepting orders that we could confirm we could ship before Christmas. There was some very minor amount of savings in marketing but it was really was not material.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Can you talk about the magnitude of the orders that you could not fulfill?

A - Polly Boe

It's going to be – I don't think it is going to be material but it is going to be speculative to try to guess what that would have been.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Okay. And then on the inventory you in your prepared remarks you said it's predominantly core product, but are we going to see markdowns as you move that core product out? In other words, is there another quarter of both the shipping margin deterioration, but also markdown margin deterioration?

A - Polly Boe

First, in terms of the current position of the inventory, the items that were really seasonal were the Home area and those sold quite well. And overall what we have now is core and we're very comfortable with those levels.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Okay. And then last question, maybe a little bit more theoretical, but at what point in the quarter can you see or do you have insight into whether or not a product category is working or not? And then how quickly and effectively can you react to that market dynamic and mark it down or – or to move it out, or be more aggressive on the marketing side?

A - Polly Boe

We're certainly monitoring all of our shipping – our item performance through a season, and as we see the need to mark things down or put things on special, we do that sort of in season. Is that what you're referring to?

Q - Rusty Hoss

Yes, I'm struggling with the shipping versus the markdown and why you may have been so aggressive on the shipping side and not so aggressive on the markdown side, and if there was a trade-off there that you looked at?

A - Alison May

Actually, this is Alison, the shipping really – we had made that decision pretty early in the season and that was primarily driven by the fact that all of our competition was offering free shipping and we were kind of holding out on discounting the product piece. So, and some of those issues the fulfillment center, as you’ve indicated, as we got towards the end, made it less made that strategy of discounting products a little less viable to drive demand but shipping fees, some catalogs came out with just free shipping right off the bat and it was certainly dominant on all websites that we saw. So we chose to move in that direction.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Were you expecting then when you made that decision, were you expecting to make it up in volume? Was that the idea?

A - Alison May

In past seasons that has driven increased volume but I think that it has become pretty much of a standard today and I don't think it is one of the key drivers of increasing demand.

Q - Rusty Hoss

Okay, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jim Bear with BL King.

Q - Jim Bear

Good afternoon, everyone. Dan, could you talk a little bit about the qualifications that the Board is looking for in a new CEO and whether that person is likely to be hired soon enough to have an impact for the '06 holiday season?

A - Dan Lyle

Yes, I'd be happy to address that. The first thing we're looking for is someone who's going to drive topline growth in this business. We want a dynamic CEO who is going to provide a great deal of leadership around the strategy that's going to get us into the next level of growth. In terms of the impact that they can have, we're in the midst of developing holiday, but in the early stages of it, for holiday 2006. If we get someone on Board quickly they still will have an impact on product. But in the meantime we have a very strong product team that is enthusiastically involved in developing that 2006 line. So the main thing that we're looking for is that in the next couple of months we hope to get someone on board and our biggest impact is going to be in driving customer acquisition and customer retention, so that we go into holiday with an improving house file and a more active customer base.

Q - Jim Bear

I see, thank you. And then, Alison or Polly, are the order trends you're seeing in Q4, which I assume in the first three weeks of January, are they consistent with by category with the trends you saw during the holiday?

A - Alison May

It's actually -- it's a little early to tell for us for Valentine's Day yet.

Q - Jim Bear

Okay.

A - Alison May

Because it's so early in the season and in addition to that, some of the categories changed dramatically as you move into Valentine's Day versus holiday. Home is not quite as dominant and there's just other products: Food, Plants, Flowers, things like that tend to be the key drivers during the Valentine's Day season. So it is a little early to say that.

Q - Jim Bear

But at this point it sounds like you're forecasting a soft Valentine's Day?

A - Alison May

Yes, that is correct.

Q - Jim Bear

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Moving on to Kristine Koerber with JMP Securities.

Q - Kristine Koerber

Hi, a couple of questions. Looking at Q3, trying to figure out your promotional discounting on shipping this year as you were last year, I'm trying to figure out what the difference was this past holiday season versus a year ago as far as promotional activity. It sounds like it was the same, I mean is this, is it mostly you're expecting bigger bump from the catalog? Or do you -- if you realize that advertising is pretty important to the overall brand building going forward?

A - Alison May

Couple of questions there. First, we had in absolute dollars more discounts for shipping where we offered free shipping with no limit for a longer period of time. I know last year they did have free shipping but I believe there were more hurdles over a threshold. So the absolute dollars of shipping discounts this year were dramatically higher than last year. The second part of your question was more around advertising, could you –

Q - Kristine Koerber

Yes, advertising. I mean, do you think it's necessary -- last holiday period advertising seemed to work to drive volume and this past season you obviously shifted your ad dollars to catalog and it didn't pay off. Is it necessary to use advertising on a go-forward basis to really drive the demand?

A - Alison May

Kristine, we're looking at a variety of options. We do think it's important to have a limited amount of advertising. I don't think we plan on doing the advertising in the same way that we did last year, but we're looking at more targeted advertising and specific markets. But there are also many other things that we are exploring other than that. I think the goal is to shift customer acquisitions that we were dominantly doing through catalog to a variety of different vehicles.

Q - Kristine Koerber

What's the catalog for the current quarter?

A - Alison May

We don't disclose that on a quarterly basis. We'll be disclosing that only on an annual basis.

Q - Kristine Koerber

Okay. Looking at Valentine's Day, it sounds like you're not expecting a lot on Valentine's Day. You didn't have a very successful Valentine's Day last year. Just I'm trying to figure out, have you done anything different this year versus last year? I mean, I would have thought you'd learned from last year?

A - Alison May

Yeah, we did. We made a change in our product mix, our marketing dollars are being used more online and for the last minute. This year which was the way that people shopped last year, and we had really -- we changed our catalog so that it's event focused, versus including Home, and New Baby, and items that we had on the catalogue last year, if you received the catalog I think you'll see that it's a very, it's a very Valentine's Day focused…

Q - Kristine Koerber

Okay, and then just lastly, can you talk about maybe discuss ad costs? We're in an environment now of rising online ad costs. Can you address that, please?

A - Alison May

Yes, we managed the marketing -- especially the online piece. Is that what you're referring to, Kristine?

Q - Kristine Koerber

Yes.

A - Alison May

Yeah, we managed that on a – the search words that we're buying; we’ve put effort into natural search and optimization of that. So we've been able to offset some of the cost of that but it is a more competitive environment that is true.

Q - Kristine Koerber

Okay great. Thanks, and good luck, Alison.

A - Alison May

Thank you.

Operator

Operator instructions We do have a question from Rebecca Kujawa with Stanford Group.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Hi, thank you for taking the question. Given the public nature of Mr. Galloway's complaint in particular, in the month of December, I imagine you did some due diligence as to why his order may have gone wrong. Can you characterize that as part of the inventory warehouse management system software glitch that you experienced during December?

A - Alison May

Yes.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay. And can you help us understand when did it become apparent or when did the system start slowing down?

A - Alison May

It was getting a little bit later we were in the middle of the season, and we would make adjustments to it and it would improve, and then there would be something else that would happen. It really affected our ability to print tickets and it affected our ability to scan with our RF guns and it was taking a long time to scan and it was taking a long time to print tickets. So we had everybody set and ready to go but couldn't necessarily give them the work to do it.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay. What types of investments will it take to improve the system? I imagine that now, obviously, it's improved because you don't have the significant volume in the holiday season.

A - Alison May

Actually it wasn't --it isn't that it needs a new investment. I mean there's always as your volume increase you put in better conveyor belts and faster things like that, but it really is an issue of having on-site support during the holiday season from our software vendor: Manhattan Associates, and having them be there on-site so that they can troubleshoot these things. That really would have made the difference and we had trouble getting the type of support that we needed during the season.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay. Is that a problem that will -- I guess what I'm trying to get at, is this going to be a problem that is going to face us again in the December quarter of next year? Or is this something that you'll work on and fix between now and then? Or is it already fixed?

A - Polly Boe

It's already fixed, essentially…

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay.

A - Alison May

Yes.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay. And on your corporate giving initiative, is this a new effort that you've focused on as far as sales teams going out or is this something's that's been underway and just happened to have been particularly successful this quarter?

A - Alison May

Well, we've had a business gifts area, I think it was called Corporate Sales and we sort of renamed it Business Gift Services this year, and we have some very talented people, some new leadership there, and very successful growth although, it's still a very small business for us.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Will you add -- do you plan to add additional sales people to boost that effort?

A - Alison May

Yes.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

And then on the -- back on the marketing spend, part of my question has been asked and answered but part of it I'm still a little bit perplexed about, did you go into the December quarter expecting to spend a comparable amount of dollars on your advertising and marketing efforts?

A - Alison May

Yes, the marketing spend that we reported was essentially inline with our plans.

Q - Rebecca Kujawa

Okay. Okay. That's it. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to management.

Alison May, Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thanks everyone for joining us. We look forward to speaking to you a quarter from now. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

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