Market Bias Slightly Favorable on Fed Days

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Includes: IVV, SPY
by: Bespoke Investment Group

Below we highlight the average percent change of the S&P 500 on Fed Days (scheduled) over various time periods. As shown, the average change on the day over every time period is positive. Since 1990, the average change of the S&P 500 on Fed Days has been 0.26%. Since 10/02, the average change has been 0.33%. And on the last three days (current rate cut cycle), the S&P has averaged a gain of 0.53%. These numbers compare to an average one-day change of about 0.04% for all days since 1990, so there is a slightly positive bias on Fed Days.

The table below highlights the S&P 500's performance on all Fed Days since the bull market began in October 2002. As shown, the last three Fed Days have been very volatile, with two +1% days and one -2% day.

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