Are We At The Bottom Yet?

by: George Simone

To answer the question in the headline above, it certainly appears that way. Even though last Friday's session ended with another down-day for Wall Street, it was its first positive week in four, as Greece and the Eurozone as a whole kept providing the headlines that have had the market whipping about like a yo-yo.

Will she or won't she is the question that's keeping investors on edge as they try to figure out if Greece is going to stay or leave club Euro. The answer to this is simple enough - of course, she will stay. The Greek populace may have been affected as a result of the extreme austerity measures imposed, but the Greeks are not stupid. They know that their country's only chance to a quality future lies within the Eurozone.

Likewise, the other European nations are well aware that if Greece falls, it will be the first domino to unravel the whole caboodle over there. This is why Germany's chancellor, Frau Merkel, is finally realizing that all pain and no gain for the Greek people is setting the stage for the emergence of a Hitler's ghost and the consequent disintegration of the Eurozone, along with disastrous effects on the globe's economies.

So chancellor Merkel is showing some flexibility at last, which could well be the beginning of the end to the Greek tragedy, and a new and positive development for the Eurozone. Meanwhile, market strategists are overwhelmingly of the opinion that the current market actions are similar to the bullruns of spring 2010 and spring 2011, both of which ended in steep corrections during the ensuing summer months, and now history is about to repeat itself.

Maybe so, but back then sentiment in the market was of excessive bullishness, a sign that the market was closer to the top than to the bottom. But this time, bearish sentiment out there is of such an extreme that the market has either hit bottom, or is about to do just that. Check the Troika bull trend BGU and S&P 500 charts below, and note the steep dives by the yellow sentiment MA lines. This will give you a pretty good idea of investors' attitudes towards the market.

That this bear trend BGZ Troika index rallied strongly during the recent market plunge but is unable to maintain upside momentum is one more sign that the market is getting close to reaching bottom. Still, for as long as this bear's green, red and yellow MA lines remain in their currently positive configuration, the market will be unable to kick into a sustainable advance, and remains neutral for a while longer. This is why the best all sectors in the market can come up with are tiny slivers of red for the bears, and green for the bulls without an advantage to either side.

But should the market manage a bit of a trend to the upside, here are some favoured, leveraged Bull-ETFs to catch a ride with: 2xMVV 2xUYG 3xIYH 2xQLD 3xDRN 3xTQQQ

A few favoured non-leveraged long-ETFs: ITB BBH XHB IBB IAT IYC

Some favoured leveraged Bear-ETFs for the down side: 2xSMN 2xDUG 3xDPK 2xDTO 2xSCO 3xSDOW

Some favoured non-leveraged Short-ETFs: SEF SH MYY DOG RWM HDGE

Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.