China, Volatility and the Winter Storm

click to enlarge

I created this chart in Bloomberg to illustrate a couple of things about China's equity market. Here we see the past year of trading in the S&P 500 Index (green line) (SPY) plotted on a ratio chart against the CSI 300 Index (blue line; a cap-weighted index of leading stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen). If we thought volatility was high in the U.S., see how China rose threefold from July to October and now has lost a third of its value during its 2008 decline.

Note the recent decoupling of the U.S. and China markets. While SPY has bounced nicely off its recent lows, we are making new 2008 lows in China. That, no doubt, reflects concerns regarding the impact of the recent fierce snowstorms in southern China. The impact of the storms is so profound that there are social and political ramifications, not just economic ones. Interestingly, articles emphasize that these impacts will be short-term and limited. Investors do not seem quite so convinced.

At any rate, the shortages of coal and food will exacerbate inflation in China. This comes at a time when the government is already fighting inflation by curbing the growth of credit. This is a disaster much larger than Katrina in the U.S., and the damage from that latter storm has yet to be undone. As in the New Orleans disaster, responses to the event were belated, as its severity only became evident over time. The slide show that accompanies this Forbes story illustrates the human side of this tragedy, but also clearly illustrates the frailty of an economy that, for all its volatile growth, remains one that is emerging.

Comments

[User 142738:]

The state-controlled media in China always fabricates numbers. If you want to know the real numbers coming out, just multiply all the "bad" numbers by 10, and divide all the "good" numbers by 4. For example, if they make (pun intended) a statement saying that 60 people died in the storm, 80 trains are running, inflation's at 7%, and coal supplies are up 900 tons; the truth is that 600 people died in the storm, 20 trains are running, inflation's at 70%, and coal supplies are only up 225 tons.

2008 Feb 04 05:26 PM

[gashouse go...:]

Perhaps, the good news is: the Bush/GOP administration isn't any worse than the Wen Jiabao/Communist administration. I mean, when you look at (a) Bush's handling of a weather event hitting a half-million-person population center after 3 days of advance warning to drive at least 50 miles away and then compare it with (b) Jiabao's handling of one hitting millions over a larger area, it "clearly illustrates the frailty of an economy that, for all its volatile growth, remains one that is emerging".

2008 Mar 09 11:20 PM

[gashouse go...:]

My "side note" notwithstanding, thanks for the good and informative post, Brett.

2008 Mar 09 11:20 PM