This article provides a brief overview of which dividend-paying assets have increased their dividend payouts. Since payout trends tend to be curvilinear for most of these assets (i.e., not linear and not a straight-line fit), a non-parametric method that does not depend on parameters such as the mean and standard deviation, or regression slope, will be more beneficial and appropriate.
The following table provides results from concordance analysis of historical dividend payouts. The probability of an increased dividend payout is defined as the probability that, when two within-asset payouts are randomly selected, the more recent payout was greater than the earlier payout. Thus, this analysis asks the question: Given two randomly selected payouts, what's the chance that the more recent payout was greater than the earlier payout? 500 iterations were used for calculating the concordance index.
Symbol | Name | Beta | 50MA>200MA | Forward Annual Yield | Dividend Date | ExDividend Date | Prob Increased Dividend |
(MCHP) | Microchip Technol | 1.14 | No | 0.045 | May 30 2012 | May 15 2012 | 0.976 |
(KMP) | Kinder Morgan Ene | 0.51 | No | 0.06 | May 14 2012 | Apr 26 2012 | 0.966 |
(HCP) | HCP Inc. Common | 0.89 | Yes | 0.049 | May 21 2012 | May 3 2012 | 0.962 |
(MMP) | Magellan Midstrea | 0.48 | Yes | 0.048 | May 14 2012 | May 4 2012 | 0.962 |
(SXL) | Sunoco Logistics | 0.32 | Yes | 0.05 | May 14 2012 | May 7 2012 | 0.962 |
(EPD) | Enterprise Produc | 0.72 | Yes | 0.051 | May 8 2012 | Apr 26 2012 | 0.958 |
(PAA) | Plains All Americ | 0.55 | Yes | 0.053 | May 14 2012 | May 2 2012 | 0.958 |
(VFC) | V.F. Corporation | 0.96 | Yes | 0.02 | Jun 17 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.954 |
(GPC) | Genuine Parts Com | 0.71 | Yes | 0.032 | Jul 1 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.936 |
(ABT) | Abbott Laboratori | 0.42 | Yes | 0.033 | May 14 2012 | Apr 11 2012 | 0.934 |
(EMR) | Emerson Electric | 1.35 | No | 0.034 | Jun 10 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.932 |
(PEP) | Pepsico Inc. Com | 0.38 | Yes | 0.031 | Jun 28 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.932 |
(HSY) | The Hershey Compa | 0.03 | Yes | 0.022 | Jun 14 2012 | May 23 2012 | 0.93 |
(NEE) | NextEra Energy I | 0.44 | Yes | 0.037 | Mar 14 2012 | Feb 29 2012 | 0.926 |
(PNY) | Piedmont Natural | 0.43 | No | 0.041 | Apr 12 2012 | Mar 21 2012 | 0.922 |
(AJG) | Arthur J. Gallagh | 0.72 | Yes | 0.039 | Jul 12 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | 0.92 |
(KMB) | Kimberly-Clark Co | 0.18 | Yes | 0.037 | Jul 2 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.916 |
(PPG) | PPG Industries I | 1.39 | Yes | 0.023 | Jun 11 2012 | May 8 2012 | 0.916 |
(PGN) | Progress Energy | 0.13 | No | 0.045 | Jun 17 2012 | May 16 2012 | 0.914 |
(NS) | Nustar Energy L.P | 0.79 | No | 0.083 | May 10 2012 | May 4 2012 | 0.912 |
(O) | Realty Income Cor | 0.49 | Yes | 0.045 | Jun 14 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.912 |
(HD) | Home Depot Inc. | 0.92 | Yes | 0.023 | Jun 13 2012 | May 29 2012 | 0.91 |
(PG) | Procter & Gamble | 0.35 | No | 0.036 | May 14 2012 | Apr 25 2012 | 0.908 |
(ITW) | Illinois Tool Wor | 1.28 | Yes | 0.026 | Jul 9 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | 0.904 |
(LLY) | Eli Lilly and Com | 0.37 | Yes | 0.048 | Jun 7 2012 | May 11 2012 | 0.902 |
(T) | AT&T Inc. | 0.48 | Yes | 0.052 | Apr 30 2012 | Apr 5 2012 | 0.898 |
(ETP) | Energy Transfer P | 0.91 | Yes | 0.08 | May 14 2012 | May 2 2012 | 0.896 |
(PBI) | Pitney Bowes Inc. | 1.04 | No | 0.108 | Jun 11 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.882 |
(INTC) | Intel Corporation | 1.01 | Yes | 0.033 | May 31 2012 | May 3 2012 | 0.872 |
(YUM) | Yum! Brands Inc. | 0.73 | Yes | 0.016 | Aug 2 2012 | Jul 11 2012 | 0.872 |
(GIS) | General Mills In | 0.01 | No | 0.031 | Apr 30 2012 | Apr 5 2012 | 0.866 |
(MTB) | M&T Bank Corporat | 0.6 | Yes | 0.034 | Jun 28 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.854 |
(VOD) | Vodafone Group Pl | 0.72 | Yes | 0.035 | Jul 31 2012 | Nov 16 2011 | 0.854 |
(XOM) | Exxon Mobil Corpo | 0.69 | Yes | 0.028 | Jun 10 2012 | May 10 2012 | 0.852 |
(TGP) | Teekay LNG Partne | 0.83 | Yes | 0.07 | May 13 2012 | Apr 19 2012 | 0.848 |
(MCD) | McDonalds Corpor | 0.22 | No | 0.031 | Jun 14 2012 | Feb 28 2012 | 0.846 |
(EEP) | Enbridge Energy | 0.68 | No | 0.072 | May 14 2012 | May 3 2012 | 0.844 |
(RAI) | Reynolds American | 0.48 | Yes | 0.056 | Jul 1 2012 | Jun 7 2012 | 0.844 |
(SO) | Southern Company | 0.09 | Yes | 0.043 | Jun 5 2012 | May 3 2012 | 0.844 |
(ETE) | Energy Transfer E | 0.68 | No | 0.066 | May 17 2012 | May 2 2012 | 0.84 |
(PNW) | Pinnacle West Cap | 0.36 | Yes | 0.043 | May 31 2012 | Apr 27 2012 | 0.838 |
(FL) | Footlocker Inc. | 1.13 | Yes | 0.022 | Jul 26 2012 | Jul 11 2012 | 0.836 |
(HCBK) | Hudson City Banco | 1.08 | Yes | 0.051 | May 24 2012 | May 8 2012 | 0.826 |
(NVS) | Novartis AG Commo | 0.53 | No | 0.048 | Apr 4 2012 | Feb 27 2012 | 0.822 |
(BMY) | Bristol-Myers Squ | 0.24 | Yes | 0.041 | Apr 30 2012 | Apr 3 2012 | 0.818 |
(NSC) | Norfolk Southern | 1.13 | No | 0.028 | Jun 10 2012 | May 2 2012 | 0.816 |
(KFT) | Kraft Foods Inc. | 0.4 | Yes | 0.03 | Jul 15 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | 0.814 |
(HCN) | Health Care REIT | 0.75 | Yes | 0.054 | May 20 2012 | May 4 2012 | 0.812 |
(MRK) | Merck & Company | 0.44 | Yes | 0.045 | Jul 8 2012 | Jun 13 2012 | 0.8 |
(MBVT) | Merchants Bancsha | 0.43 | No | 0.043 | May 16 2012 | May 1 2012 | 0.782 |
(CPNO) | Copano Energy L. | 0.87 | No | 0.086 | May 9 2012 | Apr 26 2012 | 0.774 |
(VZ) | Verizon Communica | 0.41 | Yes | 0.048 | Apr 30 2012 | Apr 5 2012 | 0.774 |
(HTCO) | Hickory Tech Corp | 1.03 | No | 0.059 | Jun 4 2012 | May 11 2012 | 0.766 |
(PM) | Philip Morris Int | 0.92 | Yes | 0.036 | Apr 11 2012 | Mar 27 2012 | 0.762 |
(LINE) | Linn Energy LLC | 0.9 | Yes | 0.08 | May 14 2012 | May 4 2012 | 0.758 |
(EXC) | Exelon Corporatio | 0.48 | No | 0.041 | Jun 7 2012 | May 11 2012 | 0.746 |
(PFE) | Pfizer Inc. Comm | 0.7 | Yes | 0.04 | Jun 4 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.744 |
(VTR) | Ventas Inc. Comm | 0.77 | Yes | 0.043 | Jun 28 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.738 |
(SUI) | Sun Communities | 1.19 | Yes | 0.062 | Apr 26 2012 | Apr 12 2012 | 0.718 |
(DD) | E.I. du Pont de N | 1.49 | Yes | 0.036 | Jun 11 2012 | May 11 2012 | 0.698 |
(PSA) | Public Storage Co | 0.81 | Yes | 0.033 | Jun 27 2012 | Jun 11 2012 | 0.664 |
(FE) | FirstEnergy Corpo | 0.32 | Yes | 0.047 | May 31 2012 | May 3 2012 | 0.654 |
(PPL) | PP&L Corporation | 0.22 | No | 0.052 | Jul 1 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.64 |
(EIX) | Edison Internatio | 0.45 | Yes | 0.029 | Jul 30 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | 0.636 |
(APU) | AmeriGas Partners | 0.28 | No | 0.082 | May 17 2012 | May 8 2012 | 0.624 |
(D) | Dominion Resource | 0.31 | Yes | 0.04 | Jun 19 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.6 |
(HNZ) | H.J. Heinz Compan | 0.42 | Yes | 0.036 | Apr 9 2012 | Mar 21 2012 | 0.586 |
(SCCO) | Southern Copper C | 1.93 | No | 0.074 | May 23 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.55 |
(AWF) | Alliancebernstein | 0.77 | Yes | 0.08 | May 17 2012 | May 2 2012 | 0.548 |
(DUK) | Duke Energy Corpo | 0.21 | Yes | 0.046 | Jun 17 2012 | May 16 2012 | 0.526 |
(CPSI) | Computer Programs | 0.28 | Yes | 0.032 | May 24 2012 | May 8 2012 | 0.51 |
(DTE) | DTE Energy Compan | 0.34 | Yes | 0.042 | Jul 14 2012 | Jun 18 2012 | 0.486 |
(EQR) | Equity Residentia | 1.05 | Yes | 0.022 | Apr 12 2012 | Mar 21 2012 | 0.476 |
(VNO) | Vornado Realty Tr | 1.3 | Yes | 0.033 | May 23 2012 | May 10 2012 | 0.462 |
(DEO) | Diageo plc Common | 0.78 | Yes | 0.022 | Apr 12 2012 | Feb 29 2012 | 0.456 |
(KIM) | Kimco Realty Corp | 1.26 | Yes | 0.042 | Jul 15 2012 | Jul 2 2012 | 0.436 |
(NTLS) | NTELOS Holdings C | 1.05 | No | 0.089 | Jul 10 2012 | Jun 13 2012 | 0.424 |
(UL) | Unilever PLC Comm | 0.83 | Yes | 0.04 | Jun 12 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.41 |
(LRY) | Liberty Property | 1.14 | Yes | 0.055 | Apr 14 2012 | Mar 29 2012 | 0.408 |
(WIN) | Windstream Corpor | 0.61 | No | 0.105 | Jul 15 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | 0.396 |
(SLE) | Sara Lee Corporat | 0.65 | Yes | 0.022 | Apr 8 2012 | Feb 28 2012 | 0.394 |
(PCH) | Potlatch Corporat | 0.67 | No | 0.043 | Jun 25 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | 0.366 |
(DO) | Diamond Offshore | 1.39 | Yes | 0.008 | May 31 2012 | Apr 27 2012 | 0.36 |
(BTE) | Baytex Energy Cor | 1.48 | No | 0.055 | Jun 14 2012 | May 29 2012 | 0.352 |
(SPG) | Simon Property Gr | 0.95 | Yes | 0.027 | May 30 2012 | May 15 2012 | 0.32 |
(DRE) | Duke Realty Corpo | 1.42 | Yes | 0.05 | May 30 2012 | May 14 2012 | 0.284 |
(NLY) | Annaly Capital Ma | 0.23 | No | 0.132 | Apr 25 2012 | Mar 28 2012 | 0.266 |
(NU) | Northeast Utiliti | 0.42 | Yes | 0.038 | Jun 28 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.236 |
(MO) | Altria Group Inc | 0.42 | Yes | 0.051 | Jul 9 2012 | Jun 13 2012 | 0.216 |
(MMC) | Marsh & McLennan | 0.66 | Yes | 0.028 | Aug 14 2012 | Jul 9 2012 | 0.204 |
(PLD) | ProLogis Inc. Co | 1.49 | Yes | 0.036 | Jun 28 2012 | Jun 7 2012 | 0.202 |
(PCG) | Pacific Gas & Ele | 0.28 | Yes | 0.042 | Apr 14 2012 | Mar 28 2012 | 0.192 |
(HBC) | HSBC Holdings pl | 1.38 | Yes | 0.045 | Jul 4 2012 | May 16 2012 | 0.174 |
(JPM) | JP Morgan Chase & | 1.57 | Yes | 0.036 | Jul 30 2012 | Jul 3 2012 | 0.128 |
(NGG) | National Grid Tra | 0.69 | Yes | 0.075 | Aug 14 2012 | May 30 2012 | 0.094 |
(GSK) | GlaxoSmithKline P | 0.55 | Yes | 0.05 | Jul 4 2012 | May 9 2012 | 0.016 |
(CNSL) | Consolidated Comm | 0.62 | No | 0.11 | Jul 31 2012 | Jul 11 2012 | -0.03 |
(XEL) | Xcel Energy Inc. | 0.27 | Yes | 0.039 | Jul 19 2012 | Jun 19 2012 | -0.038 |
(FTR) | Frontier Communic | 0.64 | No | 0.114 | Jun 28 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | -0.048 |
(FPO) | First Potomac Rea | 0.91 | No | 0.066 | May 10 2012 | May 2 2012 | -0.116 |
(WR) | Westar Energy In | 0.39 | Yes | 0.047 | Jul 1 2012 | Jun 6 2012 | -0.178 |
(PCL) | Plum Creek Timber | 0.84 | Yes | 0.046 | May 30 2012 | May 16 2012 | -0.198 |
(PWE) | Penn West Petrole | 1.54 | No | 0.077 | Jul 12 2012 | Jun 27 2012 | -0.406 |
(ACG) | Alliancebernstein | 0.09 | No | 0.059 | May 17 2012 | Apr 4 2012 | -0.452 |
(ETW) | Eaton Vance Corpo | 0.97 | No | 0.022 | Mar 29 2012 | Mar 21 2012 | -0.558 |
The Alliance Bernstein Income Fund has a negative probability of increased payout simply because its last 24 payouts were 0.04, while before that they were 0.05. Hence, over its entire history of paying 0.05 and then dropping to 0.04, the long-term trend is a decreasing one. There happen to be two spikes among the payouts, which were 0.075 and 0.093. These should not bias the results because either of these two spikes will not always, on average, be randomly selected. Spikes in payout history would, nevertheless, bias results if they were based on parametric methods (linear slope, mean, standard deviation). The beta for the Alliance Bernstein Income Fund is very low (0.09), so it does not fluctuate nearly as much as the S&P500 index, for example, and is therefore always a good asset to watch.
The Alliance Bernstein funds have been quite solid in their payouts, and one should also watch its Global Income Fund. It is near the middle of the pack with a probability of increased payout near 0.5 -- so its payout history tends to be going sideways. With a beta of 0.77 for the Global Income Fund, I tend to pay more attention to the Alliance Bernstein Income Fund. The key point in discussing the Alliance Bernstein Income Fund is that, while it is a "Steady Eddie" and reliable dividend payer, it does not have a history of increasing its dividend payout -- concordance analysis reliably detected this in the midst of two spikes in payout amount.
The majority of payout trends are curvilinear, and some assets with higher probability of an increased payout over history increased their payout up to a plateau and the rate became less pronounced. All this is a way of saying that the probability of an increase depends on the entire history of payouts, and not specifically any particular recent or early epoch of time. There are obviously numerous other methods one can use to determine attractiveness, safety, and profitability of dividend-paying assets. This article merely looks at one dimension (payout history) and provides results regarding a payout increase during the history of payouts. This article does not speculate that assets ranked at the top of the table are going to increase their payouts in the future, but rather that over their payout history they did increase their payouts. There are also many ways an asset can increase its payout, so readers are encouraged to do their own due diligence to determine what constitutes a good buy recommendation.
Given the sovereign debt crisis in southern EU, it is not recommended that readers who are retail investors go out and buy assets. Instead, it may be more advantageous to await the Greek election on June 17 and see what kind of storm ensues thereafter.
Regarding positions, I am in all cash at the current moment and would enjoy nothing more than a large downturn so that I can first pick up, for example, T and VZ at bargain-basement prices. Then I could get back in with ACG, BIP, HCN, and PAA. My basket of hedging assets that could likely be safely owned during an oncoming downturn are ACG, BIP, DUK, GIS, LQD, SO, and TLT -- although LQD includes investment-grade corporate bonds so it has to be watched. Certainly, the inverse ETFs such as SH (inverse S&P 500) and PSQ (inverse Nasdaq) would likely do well, as would the dollar bull UUP.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
