While lead times have decreased, Apple (AAPL) is still trying to build enough iPads to satisfy worldwide demand. I have been tracking iPad shipping dates since its launch on March 16 in the twelve countries that Apple has stores (China is the thirteenth country with Apple stores but the iPad is not available in China).
Due to the continued strong demand from both consumers and businesses I believe Apple could sell between 17 and 18 million iPads in the June quarter. This compares to what I believe the Street is estimating at 14 to 15 million iPads. Each additional one million iPads generates about $550 million in revenue and $0.15 in EPS.
In the US (247 stores) the iPad went to a 1 to 3 business shipping timeframe on Thursday, May 24, down from 3 to 5 days where it had been for three weeks. Canada (22 stores), Australia (13 stores), Japan (7 stores) and Hong Kong (1 day) have the same shipping timeframe. The longest delay is 5 business days in the UK (33 stores), France (9 stores), Italy (9 stores), Germany (8 stores), Spain (5 stores), Switzerland (3 stores) and Netherlands (1 store). See below for the tracking of iPad shipment timeframes.
I had a demo of Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 8 on a tablet last week. Besides the "Metro" look of larger icons and the ability to run Microsoft Office the Microsoft employees were not able to demonstrate other differences to the iPad
The point about the iPad not being able to run Microsoft Office may be moot if the Boy Genius Report is correct. It has reported that Microsoft is set to release Office for iOS and Android tables in November.
This would put the iPad in the mainstream of computing and will meaningfully negate an advantage of Windows 8 on tablets when it is scheduled to come out late this year.
Additional observations
- One can only order two iPads per order
- Two stores I visited sold out of all models on Mother's Day (yes an imperfect survey)
- Therefore watch out if you want a specific model for Father's Day
- Cisco (CSCO) is "curtailing further investment" in its Cius tablet. Wait, Cisco had a tablet?
US | CANADA | AUSTRALIA | JAPAN | |
247 stores | 22 stores | 13 stores | 7 stores | |
APPLE STORES | $499 | $519 | A$ 539 | Y42,800 |
WED., MARCH 7 | 9 days | |||
FRI., MARCH 9 | 10 days | 10 days | 2 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
SUNDAY, MARCH 11 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
WED., MARCH 14 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
SATURDAY, MARCH 17 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
TUESDAY, MARCH 21 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
THURSDAY, MARCH 30 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
THURSDAY, APRIL 5 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
FRIDAY, APRIL 13 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
FRIDAY, APRIL 20 | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days |
FRIDAY, APRIL 27 | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days |
MONDAY, APRIL 30 | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days | 5-7 bus. days |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2 | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
SUNDAY, MAY 6 | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
FRIDAY, MAY 11 | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 16 | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
SUNDAY, MAY 20 | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
THURSDAY, MAY 24 | 1-3 bus. days | 1-3 bus. days | 1-3 bus. days | 1-3 bus. days |
UK | SWITZERLAND | GERMANY | FRANCE | |
33 stores | 3 stores | 8 stores | 9 stores | |
APPLE STORES | 399 Pnds | CHF 529 | E 479 | E 489 |
WED., MARCH 7 | ||||
FRI., MARCH 9 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
SUNDAY, MARCH 11 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
WED., MARCH 14 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
SATURDAY, MARCH 17 | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks | 2-3 weeks |
TUESDAY, MARCH 21 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
THURSDAY, MARCH 30 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
THURSDAY, APRIL 5 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
FRIDAY, APRIL 13 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
FRIDAY, APRIL 20 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 5-7 bus. days |
FRIDAY, APRIL 27 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
MONDAY, APRIL 30 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
SUNDAY, MAY 6 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days |
FRIDAY, MAY 11 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 16 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days |
SUNDAY, MAY 20 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days |
THURSDAY, MAY 24 | 5 bus. days | 5 bus. days | 5 bus. days | 5 bus. days |
ITALY | SPAIN | NETHERLANDS | HONG KONG | |
9 stores | 5 stores | 1 store | 1 store | |
APPLE STORES | E 479 | E 479 | E 479 | HK 3888 |
WED., MARCH 7 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
FRI., MARCH 9 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
SUNDAY, MARCH 11 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
WED., MARCH 14 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
TUESDAY, MARCH 21 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
SATURDAY, MARCH 24 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | NA |
THURSDAY, MARCH 30 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | NA |
THURSDAY, APRIL 5 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | NA |
FRIDAY, APRIL 13 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | NA |
FRIDAY, APRIL 20 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
FRIDAY, APRIL 27 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
MONDAY, APRIL 30 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2 | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 1-2 weeks | 3-5 bus. days |
SUNDAY, MAY 6 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
FRIDAY, MAY 11 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
WEDNESDAY, MAY 16 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
SUNDAY, MAY 20 | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 7 bus. days | 3-5 bus. days |
THURSDAY, MAY 24 | 5 bus. days | 5 bus. days | 5 bus. days | 1-3 bus. days |
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.
Additional disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security.
