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Robert Shiller was on the Connie Mack show this weekend, and he said that he thinks people have too much of their net worth tied up in their homes. It also came up that the equity extraction of the last few years has been excessive.
The context of the discussion was 'Home as Investment'. Other people will tell you that your home is not an investment. I lean more in this direction, but, like most topics, the real answer is probably in the middle.
If someone buys a house with intention of being on to another house in a few years, I'd say that that probably is an investment. So a market event that prevents the price from going up (the outcome doesn't have to be a decline, it could just not go up) does hurt here.
If someone has been in the same home for ten years, has no plans of leaving, and is not over mortgaged, I'd say that this is likely not an investment. So a flat or down market probably does not impact this situation.
We plan to grow old in our cabin and the Hilo house is also a very long term proposition. I am sure there is no way we could get what we paid for it five months ago but that is not an issue. We bought the house to enhance our lifestyle.
Contrast that extreme to the people of the various flipping shows we all watch on the weekends. These people feel the market's fluctuation more than anyone--100% investment.
For planning purposes I offer no science just my notion of common sense. If you have equity in your home in the future, that is you are retired but not heavily mortgaged, then the equity can be utilized if you need it. I am thinking the most likely need would have something to do with care and or treatment for a health related matter, but whatever. If you are lucky you would have all that equity and never need to tap it.
The numbers do favor having a mortgage, I concede that, but having access to all that equity, even if it is 15% less than it was 12 months ago is very comforting.
This discussion would not be complete (maybe it's not complete anyway) without addressing the current price decline. I am not in the down 20% camp but regardless of whether that is right or not, the real estate market is not permanently broken. There will be some value in your home and chances are that value will go up over time, even if it does not go up at the rate you would like or as soon as you would like.
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Your home is an investment in all events--a poorly handled investment in the hands of those who don't know how to use it or paid too much for it, a good investment in the hands of the trained investor, but in all events an investment, no matter how much emotional invective is hurled against the concept of the cherished home as asset rather than personal object...