I have done a series of articles covering recent well results by Bakken operators. Information garnered from this shows improvements in 90-day IP rates. The main reasons are stimulation improvements from increase stages and proppant, but these companies are doing a better job in all phases of production. It wasn't long ago we were seeing 10 stage short laterals, and now long laterals with 30+ stages are common place. In my opinion, the two best operators are Kodiak (KOG) and Brigham (STO). It should be noted both have very good acreage positions as well. Kodiak's Polar and Koala prospects are its best, while Brigham's Alger Field acreage is thought by some to be the best in the Bakken. Whiting (WLL) has had some very good completions in Sanish Field, and has been the first to work the Pronghorn. Oasis (OAS) is getting much better, with significant upside in the Camp Field area.
Continental (CLR) may be the best way to follow the Bakken. It has a large acreage that covers a significant area in North Dakota and Montana. Because of this, it has well results in virtually every area of the Williston Basin. Here are its 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012 well results.
| Well Name | IP Rate (BO/d) | 90-day IP Rate | Stages | Volume | Proppant | Choke | Field |
| BURIAN 1-27H | 854 | 30 | 59471 | 2918184 | 18/64 | ST. DEMETRIUS | |
| CHRETIEN 1-31H | 43 | 15 | 26289 | 1339970 | DEMORES | ||
| BEAVER CREEK STATE 1-36H | 829 | 413 | 22 | 39318 | 2192730 | 16/64 | BEAVER CREEK |
| ENTZEL 1-26H | 1208 | 537 | 30 | 52809 | 2825927 | 20/64 | CABERNET |
| HAAG 1X-21H | 230 | 128 | 27 | 50487 | 2237626 | 22/64 | |
| JACK 2-9H | 678 | 30 | 61626 | 2963127 | 22/64 | MURPHY CREEK | |
| BENNER 1-6H | 905 | 30 | 52751 | 2790829 | 14/64 | JIM CREEK | |
| GRANDE 1-18H | 814 | 319 | 30 | 60174 | 2884106 | 22/64 | JIM CREEK |
| CATRON 1-26H | 753 | 263 | 30 | 59253 | 2924500 | 18/64 | LITTLE KNIFE |
| LAZORENKO 1-2H | 288 | LITTLE KNIFE | |||||
| KUKLA 3-16H | 1301 | 30 | 59945 | 2938591 | 29/64 | CHIMNEY BUTTE | |
| CANDEE 3-9H | 813 | 27 | 53562 | 2687948 | CHIMNEY BUTTE | ||
| BENNER 1-6H | 905 | 30 | 52751 | 2790829 | 14/64 | JIM CREEK | |
| GRANDE 1-18H | 814 | 319 | 30 | 60174 | 2884106 | 22/64 | JIM CREEK |
| DVIRNAK 2-7H | 744 | 496 | 30 | 59132 | 2132669 | 24/64 | JIM CREEK |
| DVIRNAK 3-7H | 831 | 604 | 30 | 59132 | 2959045 | 16/64 | JIM CREEK |
| PLETAN 3-18H | 1106 | 544 | JIM CREEK | ||||
| PLETAN 4-18H | 1294 | 387 | 30 | 59465 | 3015281 | 24/64 | JIM CREEK |
| THORVALD 2-6H | 659 | 411 | 30 | 1237 | 2985661 | 14/64 | RATTLESNAKE POINT |
| KATE 2-19H | 1071 | 435 | 30 | 51698 | 1633905 | 16/64 | BIG GULCH |
| MCKENZIE 1-34H | 223 | 145 | 38 | 78412 | 4396529 | 18/64 | MONDAK |
| NILS 1-25H | 717 | 297 | 30 | 60541 | 3082535 | 20/64 | HAYSTACK BUTTE |
| PALMER 1-25H | 533 | 313 | 30 | 46856 | 2855979 | 12/64 | HAYSTACK BUTTE |
| BAILEY 3-24H | 877 | 316 | 24 | 37568 | 2281679 | 20/64 | PERSHING |
| BAILEY 2-24H | 495 | 244 | 24 | 4330 | 2046060 | 16/64 | PERSHING |
| WILEY 2-25H | 309 | 361 | 30 | 53887 | 2832894 | 16/64 | PERSHING |
| WILEY 3-25H | 724 | 391 | 30 | 53150 | 2744862 | 20/64 | PERSHING |
| DURHAM 1-2H | 1138 | 637 | 30 | 54433 | 2876090 | 18/64 | NORTH TOBACCO GARDEN |
| ROCHESTER 1-24H | 838 | 422 | 29 | 52385 | 2773204 | 14/64 | NORTH TOBACCO GARDEN |
| JERRY 1-8H | 472 | 378 | 30 | 53605 | 2884685 | 12/64 | POE |
| BERLAIN 1-30H | 1094 | 418 | 30 | 55120 | 2856031 | 20/64 | PATENT GATE |
| QUALE 1-1H | 1423 | 765 | 30 | 53959 | 2890910 | 24/64 | ANTELOPE |
| MACK 3-2H | 571 | 306 | 15 | 25820 | 1422043 | 18/64 | ANTELOPE |
| MACK 4-2H | 901 | 335 | 15 | 26545 | 1258927 | 22/64 | ANTELOPE |
| BARKLEY 1-5H | 606 | 416 | 30 | 54211 | 2856278 | 18/64 | TWIN VALLEY |
| BOULDER 1-4H | 906 | 30 | 60847 | 2879656 | 20/64 | BANKS | |
| CHARLOTTE 2-22H | 692 | 356 | 30 | 51639 | 2279778 | 18/64 | BANKS |
| PATTERSON 1-13H | 929 | 572 | 30 | 54408 | 2559960 | 18/64 | CAMP |
| MIRAMAR 1-32AH | 783 | 330 | 30 | 54832 | 2409639 | 18/64 | ELK |
| STANGELAND 1-18H | 519 | 273 | 17 | 34265 | 1345612 | 22/64 | CRAZY MAN CREEK |
| TRUMAN 1-23H | 954 | 581 | 30 | 55984 | 2590035 | 18/64 | LONG CREEK |
| TODD 1-6H | 691 | 30 | 53821 | 2878837 | 16/64 | BAKER | |
| TALLAHASSEE 1-21H | 602 | 341 | 30 | 53802 | 2905530 | 16/64 | INDIAN HILL |
| CINCINNATI 1-30H | 567 | 30 | 46503 | 2838149 | 16/64 | INDIAN HILL | |
| REHAK 2-25H | 765 | 450 | 30 | 52949 | 2773163 | 18/64 | ALKALI CREEK |
| SALEM 1-6H | 671 | 388 | 30 | 60927 | 2569111 | 22/64 | DOLLAR JOE |
| RALEIGH 1-20H | 558 | 438 | 30 | 58617 | 2538284 | 20/64 | DOLLAR JOE |
| PIERRE 1-21H | 480 | 320 | 30 | 59868 | 2530067 | 24/64 | DOLLAR JOE |
| MADISON 1-28H | 182 | 383 | 30 | 55755 | 2514240 | 18/64 | DOLLAR JOE |
| ANNAPOLIS 1-29H | 634 | 387 | 30 | 57906 | 2542450 | DOLLAR JOE | |
| DOVER 1-30AH | 801 | 460 | 30 | 60354 | 2585008 | 24/64 | DOLLAR JOE |
| TOPEKA 1-1H | 645 | 407 | 30 | 61017 | 2588704 | 24/64 | BROOKLYN |
| JUNEAU 1-2H | 740 | 348 | 30 | 53108 | 2542440 | 24/64 | BROOKLYN |
| HELENA 1-7H | 993 | 504 | 30 | 60099 | 2560300 | 20/64 | BROOKLYN |
| SPRINGFIELD 1-8H | 667 | 511 | 30 | 58190 | 2536946 | 22/64 | BROOKLYN |
| BISMARCK 1-9H | 816 | 499 | 30 | 51219 | 2557885 | 18/64 | BROOKLYN |
| SACRAMENTO 1-10H | 542 | 466 | 30 | 57605 | 2540610 | 22/64 | BROOKLYN |
| ADDYSON 1-23H | 871 | 482 | 30 | 54619 | 2553226 | 24/64 | BROOKLYN |
| BOISE 1-24H | 388 | 381 | 27 | 48966 | 2542515 | BROOKLYN | |
| RICHMOND 1-26H | 764 | 30 | 57517 | 2546260 | BROOKLYN | ||
| MILLOY 1-15H | 148 | 183 | 24 | 39817 | 2212526 | 18/64 | HEBRON |
| STOCKTON 1-28H | 937 | 460 | EAST FORK | ||||
| KING 1-5H | 699 | 30 | 51674 | 3283208 | 32/64 | OLIVER | |
| MARCY 1-24H | 472 | 417 | 30 | 60354 | 2575985 | 24/64 | OLIVER |
| WILHELM 1-21H | 519 | 30 | 59946 | 2561870 | 20/64 | LONE TREE LAKE | |
| RIXEY 1-28H | 682 | 30 | 59740 | 2598954 | 22/64 | LONE TREE LAKE | |
| RUFFING 1-34H | 554 | 334 | 30 | 53634 | 2562703 | 20/64 | LONE TREE LAKE |
| COVELESKI 1-35H | 298 | 353 | 30 | 57401 | 2506870 | 20/64 | LONE TREE LAKE |
| GARNER 1-32H | 564 | 30 | 63864 | 3387215 | 26/64 | RAINBOW | |
| MCCOY 4-18H | 541 | 30 | 54732 | 2591592 | NORTHWEST MCGREGOR | ||
| SEVRE 1-22H | 279 | 30 | 62196 | 3450100 | 26/64 | CORINTH | |
| GROTE 1-21H | 237 | 243 | 30 | 59774 | 3526935 | 32/64 | NORTH TIOGA |
| MCGINNITY 3-15H | 770 | 30 | 58549 | 2997059 | 44/64 | STONEVIEW | |
| LINDELL 3-10H | 325 | 30 | 58272 | 2985890 | 64/64 | STONEVIEW | |
| MCGINNITY 4-15H | 487 | 30 | 53970 | 3302630 | 32/64 | STONEVIEW | |
| ROSENVOLD 1-30H | 492 | 282 | 24 | 48849 | 2810300 | 34/64 | HAMLET |
| HAMLET 4-2H | 609 | 448 | 24 | 48240 | 2794887 | 30/64 | HAMLET |
| SALO 2-35H | 429 | 321 | 24 | 45091 | 2481543 | 32/64 | HAMLET |
| SALO 3-35H | 756 | 327 | 23 | 41423 | 2609983 | 28/64 | HAMLET |
| HAMLET 3-2H | 240 | 441 | 24 | 51058 | 2587836 | HAMLET | |
| INGEBRET 1-8H | 314 | 30 | 62319 | 3496680 | 48/64 | WILDROSE | |
| BRUNDTLAND 1-15H | 249 | 30 | 62303 | 3480410 | 32/64 | WILDROSE | |
| TYLER 1-19H | 566 | 360 | 30 | 59848 | 3566610 | 32/64 | UPLAND |
| LAKEWOOD 1-20H | 122 | 177 | 21 | 43278 | 2449285 | 36/64 | UPLAND |
| HAGERUP 1-28H | 292 | 30 | 63176 | 3480027 | 32/64 | UPLAND | |
| SCHILKE 1-30H | 421 | 11 | 17643 | 1421093 | 36/64 | UPLAND |
There are several factors of focus with respect to Continental's recent results. The first is the fast expansion of stages to 30. Last year at this time, it was consistently doing 20 stage completions on its long laterals. It continues to choke back production, for the purpose of keeping pressure high with in the well for a longer period of time. I have received questions about this specific variable on several of my articles. Theories on well pressure are complex, so I will try to explain in the most simplistic way I can. It is believed by some oil producers that keeping well pressures high will lower initial production, but provide better production over the long haul. Also, longer time frames are seen until the well will be placed on artificial lift. Some fear not choking back production could possibly damage the well. Brigham (Statoil) uses a choke that allows crude to leave the well at a much quicker rate, and is the reason for its higher IP rates. What has been interesting, is longer term production has been better for Brigham than Continental, but Brigham's completion methods have been done with more proppant, higher water volumes, and larger number of stages. Because of this we are not necessarily comparing apples to apples. Further research is needed to determine the effects of well pressure, and this will take time.
In summary, Continental has had some very good results. These results are a huge step up from just a year ago based on 90-day IP rates. 90-day IP rates are used as what I believe to be the absolute minimum of time to properly model well results. This number can be used to determine depletion rates, which gives an estimated ultimate recovery or EUR. Its completions average 90-day IP rates of 400 to 500 BO/d, but several of its wells are 600 or better. Its QUALE 1-1H had a 90-day IP of 765 BO/d, which is competitive with many of the best wells in the Williston Basin. Not only are results getting better, but Continental is also beginning its ramp up of pad drilling. Continental will not only beat expectations in the amount of crude produced per well, but will also be ahead of schedule on the number of wells it completes. One thing to watch in the second quarter is the quick pullback in the price of crude. Many of these companies (Continental included) had large mark to market derivatives losses in the first quarter. Much of these losses will find their way back on balance sheets in the second quarter if oil prices remain below $90/Bbl. Right now Continental is trading at a large discount, and has value here. Given the upside to its production numbers, and large hedged position it could have a very good second quarter.
Disclosure: I am long KOG.
Additional disclosure: This is not a buy recommendation, but I do own Kodiak and have been adding below $8.
