Housing Market Tracker - Construction Job Loss Impact

Macro Impact, And Are We in A Recession?

Cramer On Bloggingstocks: To Solve Our Problems, We Need To Solve Housing. "Hurry. Hurry with the rate cuts. Hurry with the stimulus package. Hurry with the bond insurer bailout. Hurry with the write-offs. Hurry with the Fannie Mae (FNM) limits. Hurry with something, anything, because things are still going down and they are going down with increasing speed. That's what the market said yesterday and the market is saying today already with this ridiculously low 10-year treasury that has not produced the break down to the 4.5 level of 30-year fixed that we need so badly to clear out the inventory of unsold homes."(Blogging Stocks, Feb.6th)

While Home Prices Slip, Local Economy Strong. “The types of economic activity seen in Cambridge are those that are unaffected by business cycles,” said Arthur MacEwan, chairman of the Department of Economics at UMass-Boston.The Cambridge resident explained that given the city’s top industries, higher education and research, it was unlikely to see any real changes. “The economy goes up and down, and manufacturing goes up and down. But universities go on regardless,” he said. “Especially universities like Harvard and MIT. They aren’t relying on public funding. The public funding that they see is for long-term research projects, not short term, so that doesn’t fluctuate.” (Wicked Local Cambridge, Feb. 6th)

Real Estate Agents Decide Whether To Stay In. "California: Last year, sales agent memberships had already dipped 15% compared with 2006, according to the Bakersfield Association of Realtors. This year, the association decided to waive an early January late fee to give its members a break. As of last week, 1,054 of the 1,686 billed agents had renewed their memberships, though more are expected to do so in coming weeks." (Bakersfield Californian, Feb. 6th)

U.S. Job-Market Weakening Is Led by Self-Employed, Data Shows. "The increase in U.S. unemployment that's jeopardizing economic growth is being driven by a drop in the number of people working for themselves, government figures indicate. Labor Department: Hours worked by the self-employed dropped at a 15.5% annual pace in Q4'07, the biggest decrease in 15 years... The decline "is probably related to the housing downturn, since one in six workers in construction is self-employed, twice the average for all industries,'' said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, a forecasting firm." (Bloomberg, Feb. 6th)

Recession Fears Realized With Industries' Slump. "Moving company Allied Van Lines filed for bankruptcy Tuesday, saying it had fallen victim to the downturn in the housing market and its own heavy debt load... Ryan Kaminski, who runs a Mexican restaurant in Sarasota, Fla., said... the restaurant's traffic started thinning out last summer, pulling 2007 sales down 10% from a year earlier, and so far this year sales are down 15% from a year ago. "I used to be able to find a person from any trade – carpenters, electricians, plumbers – in the restaurant every day," he said. "Since the housing market crashed, it's just dried up. Those type of customers are just gone." (Nashua Telegraph, Feb. 6th)

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Comments

[mavericks:]

Gee, maybe I can get a painter now!

2008 Feb 09 10:40 AM

[wax:]

What is it with this Cramer guy?

If he were as brilliant as everybody seems to think he is, why isn't he home with his growing investment balances instead of all over the internet with his growing ego?

Wax

2008 Feb 10 07:56 AM

[Cherysh:]

It's frightening when one industry is hit so hard in an economic downturn. There are still construction jobs to be found, and www.ConstructionCrossi... is a good source because it ONLY shows you construction jobs and contains jobs from every website and employer site. It has more construction jobs than ANY other website. Never give up hope!

Mar 08 09:13 PM

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

The construction job market is fast starting to look like migrant farmer work did in the 1930s.

You have to be willing to move to where the work is, work for a few months (or weeks), then pack up and move elsewhere.

In Washoe County (including Reno, Sparks, Incline Village and a host of smaller towns) 11 new homes sold in the month of January. There are more than 20 new home subdivisions marketing houses in Reno alone.

Retail vacancies are above 20% in some areas, and spec building has halted, for two reasons--banks are leery about spec space, and developers don't have the secondary support they did 3 years ago.

Commercial space is languishing, and one major commercial broker projected that no spec office space will be built in 2009.

So if there are construction workers seeking employment, they would do well to pass by this region.

Always a pleasure reading your reports--even a year old!

ATB,

Bill

Mar 09 07:40 PM

[SA Editor J...:]

Hi Bill,
Nice to hear from you. Thanks for the illustrative info. I guess things aren't looking up just yet. Hopefully the standstill in construction will help balance the supply part of the equation soon.

ATB,
Judy

Mar 10 03:57 AM