Consumers Haven't Given Up Just Yet

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg):

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in January as Americans spent more on cars, clothes and gasoline, a sign that the biggest part of the economy is holding up even as the housing slump deepens.

The Commerce Department said total sales rose 0.3% in January, compared to a 0.4% decline in December. From January 2007 to January 2008, retail sales increased by 3.9%.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a 0.3% drop in retail sales for the month.

The chart above shows annual retail sales growth rates, from the same month in the previous year, and averaged over six months to smooth the data. Notice that the trend over the last 9 months is upward, and it looks nothing like the downward trend in 2001-2002 during and following the last recession (shaded in graph).

Comments

[stckpkr7000:]

Ummmmm, fuel prices were the only cause for the .3%..... Otherwise, retail was weak across the board..... Come on man, do a little dd and stop the spin....... Geez!

2008 Feb 13 01:57 PM

[john1:]

Craig, you gotta BELEIVE man. If you don't believe, the terrorist win!

2008 Feb 13 02:18 PM

[robert99:]

LOL bozo...

2008 Feb 13 03:02 PM

[Chris Lau:]

How much of the gain was due to retailers cutting prices? What kind of profit margin erosion should one expect for the retail sector? That indication will give a better picture to the health of the consumer.

2008 Feb 13 03:54 PM

[SchraderTrader:]

The consumer is hurting bad, let's get serious here. The key month of the year - Dec - was weak. Folks, why are people still unwilling to believe there's a serious recession here or shortly coming? A bunch of tomfoolery and jibber jabber, that's all it is. Leave hope to the Pope or the markets will prove you're a dope!

2008 Feb 13 04:09 PM

[User18358:]

Please, everyone is lying including the Govt. So, why blame Mark.

2008 Feb 13 05:02 PM

[Brian29:]

Mark, you should be on CNBC...same BS spin on bad numbers.

2008 Feb 13 11:03 PM

[Brian29:]

Mark, you have now qualified to be a host on CNBC. Do your homework.

2008 Feb 13 11:05 PM

[Wisdom-Seeker:]

Show me the same chart with the six-month averaged CPI taken out and it might look more interesting...

2008 Feb 13 11:06 PM