Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

This portfolio, built and maintained through the past 18 months-plus, has had a fair amount of success (please see table below), recommending equities - both long and short - and published on Seeking Alpha.

Buys Ahead of S&P by 11%

Based on all (19) buy recommendations, long performance has averaged 13.5%, or about 11% better than the S&P 500 Index (using start dates corresponding to each recommendation).

Over a period that the S&P had a time weighted average gain of about 2.5%, all but seven of these same 24 buy recommendations have outperformed the Index over their relevant periods. The most notable positive results are from Casey's General Store, Papa John's and Home Depot, each delivering >50% returns and around 50% in outperformance relative to the S&P 500.

While each of my homebuilder recommendations (MDC, NVR, and Toll Brothers) have outperformed the market, so have homebuilding industry stocks. Just happy there were no shorts.

At the same time, readers may have viewed my early buy recommendation on Home Depot relative to a hold on Lowe's within building material industry, as making up for this modest relative performance within homebuilders.

Sells up Small, Less than S&P

The seven consumer stocks I have recommended at sell have also generated sold performance vs. the benchmark. The average return among the sells of 0.8% includes a nearly 50% drop in Morgan's Hotel Group since a February 2011 initial sell recommendation. Yum Brands has, however, gone against me the most, rising some 30% in just more than a year.

Please see my recommendations and analysis in the reports published on the dates mentioned below.

Last*Price InitialReportAbsolutePerf. vs
Ticker PriceRec.DateReturnS&P 500
BUYS (17 current) 13.5%11.0%
TFMThe Fresh Market$55.2448.133/18/1215%21%
HTSIHarris Teeter38.6741.251/30/12-6%-7%
KRKroger21.5724.091/30/12-10%-11%
WAGWalgreens31.1633.631/30/12-7%-8%
MDCMDC27.1324.896/9/119%6%
NVRNVR Inc.792.91711.076/9/1112%9%
TOLToll Brothers25.8220.146/9/1128%25%
MCSMarcus Corp.14.1310.394/15/1136%36%
CASYCasey's59.4839.14/13/1152%51%
PNRAPanera Bread145.86120.484/12/1121%20%
THITim Hortons53.1646.64/12/1114%13%
PZZAPapa John's47.6430.84/12/1155%54%
CHHChoice Hotels37.5337.421/19/110%2%
ACAccor24.26533.941/6/11-29%-33%
HDHome Depot52.3533.5512/7/1056%48%
CAKECheesecake Fac.31.4932.6212/3/10-3%-12%
SWYSafeway18.2223.0511/12/10-21%-31%
RRGBRed Robin30.9626.724/12/1116%16%
SONCSonic Corp.8.959.022/2/11-1%-2%
BWLDBuffalo Wild Wgs.65.1248.411/12/1035%25%
*BWLD downgrade to hold 1/30/12.
*RRGB downgraded to sell 1/30/12.

*SONC downgraded to hold 4/12/11.

SELLS (7) 0.8%2.6%
RRGBRed Robin30.630.961/30/12-1%2%
YUMYum Brands64.5949.864/12/1130%-29%
MCDMcDonald's87.7576.664/12/1114%-14%
CBRLCracker Barrel59.9148.624/12/1123%-22%
MHGCMorgans Hotel4.59.292/22/11-52%52%
OEHOrient-Express8.4412.2812/13/10-31%38%
STNRSteiner Leisure4839.2911/23/1022%-10%
Source: Long/Short Portfolio Scorecard: Building On Past Success