Long/Short Portfolio Scorecard: Building On Past Success

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Includes: CASY
by: Consumer Contrarian

This portfolio, built and maintained through the past 18 months-plus, has had a fair amount of success (please see table below), recommending equities - both long and short - and published on Seeking Alpha.

Buys Ahead of S&P by 11%

Based on all (19) buy recommendations, long performance has averaged 13.5%, or about 11% better than the S&P 500 Index (using start dates corresponding to each recommendation).

Over a period that the S&P had a time weighted average gain of about 2.5%, all but seven of these same 24 buy recommendations have outperformed the Index over their relevant periods. The most notable positive results are from Casey's General Store, Papa John's and Home Depot, each delivering >50% returns and around 50% in outperformance relative to the S&P 500.

While each of my homebuilder recommendations (MDC, NVR, and Toll Brothers) have outperformed the market, so have homebuilding industry stocks. Just happy there were no shorts.

At the same time, readers may have viewed my early buy recommendation on Home Depot relative to a hold on Lowe's within building material industry, as making up for this modest relative performance within homebuilders.

Sells up Small, Less than S&P

The seven consumer stocks I have recommended at sell have also generated sold performance vs. the benchmark. The average return among the sells of 0.8% includes a nearly 50% drop in Morgan's Hotel Group since a February 2011 initial sell recommendation. Yum Brands has, however, gone against me the most, rising some 30% in just more than a year.

Please see my recommendations and analysis in the reports published on the dates mentioned below.

Last* Price Initial Report Absolute Perf. vs
Ticker Price Rec. Date Return S&P 500
BUYS (17 current) 13.5% 11.0%
TFM The Fresh Market $55.24 48.13 3/18/12 15% 21%
HTSI Harris Teeter 38.67 41.25 1/30/12 -6% -7%
KR Kroger 21.57 24.09 1/30/12 -10% -11%
WAG Walgreens 31.16 33.63 1/30/12 -7% -8%
MDC MDC 27.13 24.89 6/9/11 9% 6%
NVR NVR Inc. 792.91 711.07 6/9/11 12% 9%
TOL Toll Brothers 25.82 20.14 6/9/11 28% 25%
MCS Marcus Corp. 14.13 10.39 4/15/11 36% 36%
CASY Casey's 59.48 39.1 4/13/11 52% 51%
PNRA Panera Bread 145.86 120.48 4/12/11 21% 20%
THI Tim Hortons 53.16 46.6 4/12/11 14% 13%
PZZA Papa John's 47.64 30.8 4/12/11 55% 54%
CHH Choice Hotels 37.53 37.42 1/19/11 0% 2%
AC Accor 24.265 33.94 1/6/11 -29% -33%
HD Home Depot 52.35 33.55 12/7/10 56% 48%
CAKE Cheesecake Fac. 31.49 32.62 12/3/10 -3% -12%
SWY Safeway 18.22 23.05 11/12/10 -21% -31%
RRGB Red Robin 30.96 26.72 4/12/11 16% 16%
SONC Sonic Corp. 8.95 9.02 2/2/11 -1% -2%
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wgs. 65.12 48.4 11/12/10 35% 25%
*BWLD downgrade to hold 1/30/12.
*RRGB downgraded to sell 1/30/12.

*SONC downgraded to hold 4/12/11.

SELLS (7) 0.8% 2.6%
RRGB Red Robin 30.6 30.96 1/30/12 -1% 2%
YUM Yum Brands 64.59 49.86 4/12/11 30% -29%
MCD McDonald's 87.75 76.66 4/12/11 14% -14%
CBRL Cracker Barrel 59.91 48.62 4/12/11 23% -22%
MHGC Morgans Hotel 4.5 9.29 2/22/11 -52% 52%
OEH Orient-Express 8.44 12.28 12/13/10 -31% 38%
STNR Steiner Leisure 48 39.29 11/23/10 22% -10%
Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am long TFM, HTSI.